Top NFL football knockout, survivor pool picks, strategy, advice for Week 1, 2024: Fade this home favorite

In 2022, a whopping 63% of NFL survivor pool players were knocked out in Week 1. At least 20% of all players have suffered embarrassing losses in the first week over the last four seasons. Having a clear NFL survivor strategy heading into the 2024 season is your best chance of avoiding an early exit. The Denver Broncos have been a strong Week 1 team historically, with a 40-22-1 all-time record, but they’ve lost four of their last five openers and might be a team to fade again with NFL knockout pool picks. Denver visits the Seattle Seahawks in Week 1 and is a five-point underdog according to the NFL odds.

With many NFL survivor picks likely to favor larger favorites like the Bengals or Bills, will the Seahawks be a play that allows you to avoid a major Week 1 exodus in 2024? Before finalizing any Week 1 NFL survivor picks, see which team the red-hot SportsLine Projection Model just went all-in on.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 1 of the 2024 NFL season on an incredible 181-129 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. It is also on a 35-21 roll on top-rated NFL picks since Week 7 of 2022. 

The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94 percent of CBS Sports Football Pick’em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now, it has turned its attention to the latest Week 1 NFL odds and locked in its Week 1 survivor pool pick. You can only see who the model is backing this week at SportsLine.

Top Week 1 NFL survivor pool predictions 

In Week 1 of the 2024 NFL season, the model is shying away from the Miami Dolphins, even though they’re coming off an 11-6 season and are favored over a Jaguars team that went 9-8 and missed the playoffs. Miami was one of the most exciting teams in the NFL in 2023, ranking second in scoring and first in total offense on the way to an 11-6 season. However, the Dolphins were soundly beaten by the Ravens and Bills to end the season and then lost 26-7 to the Chiefs during NFL Wild Card Weekend.

Meanwhile, Jacksonville got off to an 8-3 start but missed the playoffs after losing five of its last six. The Jaguars still possess a talented roster and they’ve won three of their last four head-to-head matchup against the Dolphins. That includes a 23-20 win over the Dolphins in London in 2021 where Trevor Lawrence threw for 319 yards and a touchdown in a rookie duel with Tua Tagovailoa. See which team to pick here.

How to make Week 1 NFL survivor pool picks 

Instead, the model is backing a surprising home team that wins outright in almost 80% of simulations. The time to pick this team is now, and you can only see the play over at SportsLine.

Which surprising team is a must-back in your Week 1 survivor pool? Visit SportsLine now to see which team carries you to victory in Week 1, all from the advanced computer model that consistently crushes the NFL and is up well over $7,000 since its inception.