Two of the biggest wins of Trevor Lawrence’s football career have come against Tua Tagovailoa, as the teams will square off during the Week 1 NFL schedule. Lawrence defeated Tagovailoa to win the 2019 College Football Playoff Championship Game in their first meeting. Then, the former Clemson star picked up his first NFL victory when their teams met in 2021 in London. Miami is favored by 3.5 points over the visiting Jaguars on Sunday according to the latest NFL odds. Backing the underdog Jaguars as part of your Week 1 NFL parlay picks could garner a strong return if the rest of your legs hit.
Which NFL bets could be considered for an opening-week NFL parlay? Dolphins vs. Jaguars is one of four games in which the home team is favored by exactly 3.5 points, per the Week 1 NFL lines. Before you make any Week 1 NFL picks or NFL parlays, be sure to see the NFL predictions and betting advice from SportsLine’s proven computer model.
The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 1 of the 2024 NFL season on an incredible 185-129 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. It is also on a 39-21 roll on top-rated NFL picks since Week 7 of last season.
The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94% of CBS Sports Football Pick’em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.
Now, the model has scoured the Week 1 NFL odds and locked in five confident NFL best bets. If you successfully parlay its picks, you’d be looking at a massive payout of around 25-1. You can only see the model’s Week 1 NFL picks at SportsLine.
Top Week 1 NFL picks
After simulating every game 10,000 times, the model is high on the Detroit Lions (-3.5) to cover at home against the Los Angeles Rams. Coach Dan Campbell always gets the most out of his team as Detroit had the best ATS record in 2023, and the second-best ATS mark in 2022. The Lions have 26 against-the-spread wins over the last two years, which are four more than any other team. They ended last season by covering in six out of their last seven games, including the postseason.
The Rams were middle-of-the-pack defensively last year — and that was with Aaron Donald — but their biggest struggle was creating turnovers. Their 15 turnovers forced were the third-fewest in the NFL, averaging fewer than one per game. If you can’t force turnovers, then it’s hard to beat Detroit as the Lions went 12-2 straight up when they had one or fewer giveaways. The model projects the Rams to generate just one takeaway on SNF, and that allows Detroit (-3.5) to cover in nearly 60% of simulations. See which other NFL parlay picks to make here.
How to make Week 1 NFL parlays
The model also jumped on four other NFL matchups where it says the line is way off, including a home favorite that covers the spread in almost 70% of simulations. You can only see the model’s NFL Week 1 best bets and parlay at SportsLine.
What are the model’s top Week 1 NFL picks, and which other NFL matchups should you target for a strong 25-1 payout? Visit SportsLine now to see the Week 1 NFL best bets from a model on a 185-129 run on top-rated picks, and find out.
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Author: CBS Sports Staff
September 5, 2024 | 11:10 am
