The second half of the NFL season is underway, and the more we think we know, the more we find out. Six underdogs won — the most since Week 4 — and there were plenty more close calls. The Chiefs needed a blocked field goal to remain perfect. The Lions threw five interceptions … and won.
Even as the season grows older, unexpected outcomes pop up here, there and everywhere. We like that about the NFL. Here are five more things we liked across the league in Week 10, followed by five things we didn’t like.
Five things we liked
1. Kyler Murray, master of efficiency
There’s never been a question about Murray’s physical abilities. The rocket arm and the speed have wowed people for years. Now, he’s still using those things when needed, but also playing terrific, in-structure football. That was never more evident than in Week 10, when Murray ripped apart the Jets‘ defense to the tune of 22 for 24 passing for 266 yards on 11.1(!!!) yards per attempt and three total touchdowns.
His 0.81 expected points added per play was by far a league high. Essentially, every time he was either running or passing, the Cardinals were scoring nearly a point. For reference, Lamar Jackson leads the entire NFL at 0.31 expected points added per play this season.
I am especially impressed with how Murray has progressed in Drew Petzing’s offense, which places a greater emphasis on traditional play-action concepts and more varied formations. On Sunday, Murray used play action on 40% of his dropbacks and went 10 for 10 for 143 yards. His accuracy was off the charts overall.
We like that Murray is not only fitting Petzing’s passing scheme, but his offensive scheme. This team wants to run the ball efficiently and hit big plays both on the ground and through the air. It’s working. This season, Arizona is sixth in success rate — a good down-to-down metric — and second in explosive play rate. You get the physicality of James Conner one play and then the precision of Murray the next. As such, this is a very different Murray than previous versions, one who doesn’t have as many moments of hero ball but one who is much better down-to-down.
Kyler Murray | 2019-23 | 2024 |
Success rate | 47% | 52% |
Expected points added per play | 0.03 | 0.14 |
Negative play rate | 9.4% | 7.7% |
Sack per pressure rate | 20% | 16% |
Oh yeah, and he’s throwing some absolute dimes and still producing running highlights.
We really like what these Cardinals have going, and we like how Murray is leading the way.
2. Josh Allen, Khalil Shakir and the short passing game
The Bills‘ passing game has featured a rotating cast of characters. They lost Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis this offseason. They acquired Amari Cooper, but he got hurt. Keon Coleman started coming on, but then he got hurt.
So, what’s been consistent? Khalil Shakir and Josh Allen’s connection on the short, quick passes. This season, they have connected on 48 of 54 passes, and Shakir’s 88.9% catch rate is on pace to be the best by any player (min. 50 targets) in a season since it first started being tracked in 1992.
And these aren’t just worthless little dump offs. No, these are staples of one of the league’s best offenses. Shakir’s catches have a 68.5% success rate, third-best among wide receivers behind Chris Godwin and Amon-Ra St. Brown. He is second among wide receivers with 407 yards after the catch, only behind Ja’Marr Chase. This lightning quick passing game (average time to throw: 2.08 seconds, average air yards: 3.4, lowest among all wide receivers) is made possible by Shakir’s reliability and YAC acumen and the Bills receivers’ willingness to block. It’s essentially an extension of the run game, but it makes teams pay if they overload the box to stop Buffalo’s actual run game, which is impressive and multi-faceted. Sunday, Allen and Shakir connected on six of nine passes for 58 yards, and four of the six receptions were successful, including a huge 30-yarder in the fourth quarter.
Allen is averaging career lows in air yards per attempt (7.7) and time to throw (2.84). But it’s working because he has turned into an extremely accurate passer in these areas. Plus, he still has the bazooka arm and ridiculous athleticism to keep defenses honest.
3. Lions don’t abandon the run
The Lions’ win over the Texans on Sunday night was an eyesore. Jared Goff threw five interceptions. Over the last 30 years, quarterbacks who throw five picks in a game are now 3-58.
The defense is a huge reason they aren’t 2-59. Houston didn’t score a point in the second half. Oh yeah, and Jake Bates nailed multiple field goals from 50+ yards, including the game winner from 52, in the final 5:01 of the game.
But don’t forget to give some credit to the running game, or, more importantly, the Lions’ willingness to stick with the run game. This season, teams that trail by 10+ at halftime pass the ball on 68% of their second-half plays. The Lions, however, ran the ball on 59% of their second-half plays Sunday, the second-highest rate by a team trailing by double digits at halftime this season. The only one higher came in Week 4, when the Cardinals simply wanted to leave an eventual 42-14 loss to the Commanders without it getting worse.
Overall, the second-half run game wasn’t that effective — just 4.3 yards per carry — but it did provide four plays of 10+ yards and a touchdown. More importantly, the Lions didn’t stray too far from what they do. So often, we see trailing play callers chase comebacks by going pass-heavy. Instead, Detroit stayed patient. Of course, not every team is going to get such a sterling second half from its defense, but this was a good reminder the run game still exists, even when you’re trailing.
4. Justin Herbert using his mobility
If you asked the average NFL fan how Justin Herbert is playing this year, they probably wouldn’t know. The Chargers are a run-and-defense team that doesn’t beat itself in Year 1 under Jim Harbaugh.
The answer, though, is that Herbert is playing really well. The numbers aren’t off the charts, but the team’s playing style plus 15 drops from an underwhelming receiving corps don’t help. Instead, Herbert remains extremely accurate and extremely good at avoiding mistakes (league’s lowest interception rate).
Where he has improved is as an improviser and scrambler. He has had to extend a lot of plays this season — it’s not like he has a ton of receivers who get open easily — and Herbert impressed with his legs in Week 10. That includes his first touchdown run this season.
Overall, Herbert ran for 32 yards, two weeks after running for 49 yards in a win over the Saints. He’s averaging a career-high 8 yards per scramble this season.
5. This Brock Purdy-to-George-Kittle connection
The 49ers have a very major issue in a very major area — we’ll get to it in a bit — but this wasn’t one of them. What a play.
Five things we didn’t like
1. The Bears offense is capped … literally
As I was making my list Sunday preparing for this column, I noticed I was writing something related to the Bears offense … a lot. No, I wasn’t forgetting that I had already written something. I was adding new things seemingly all afternoon.
There are many, many things I could write that I don’t like about the Bears, but this is my least favorite: Caleb Williams‘ passing map from Week 10.
Yes, that is one — ONE! — pass out of 30 that traveled more than a dozen yards downfield.
And here’s the thing: The Patriots knew they could do this!
- They played man coverage on 58.5% of the Bears’ dropbacks, the sixth-highest rate in a game this year.
- They blitzed on 49% of Williams’ dropbacks, another extremely high rate.
These are scenarios, one would think, that lend themselves to big plays. Not for the Bears. This offense is a disaster. It features very little motion and very little play action. It’s like they feel the need to prove Williams can play from the pocket — behind a very bad offensive line, mind you — rather than allow him to use his out-of-structure abilities. Chicago is searching for answers.
2. 49ers aren’t finishing
Remember that incredible Purdy throw above? While it’s an amazing play, it illustrates just how hard things have been finishing drives.
The 49ers are scoring touchdowns on just 47% of their red zone trips, 28th in the NFL. Last year, they were first at 67%. Christian McCaffrey’s return may help, but he doesn’t fix everything. There are frustrating penalties and too many sacks.
And then there’s the special teams. Jake Moody missed three field goals Sunday and got in a sideline spat with Deebo Samuel before kicking through the game-winner. Overall, San Francisco is dead last in special teams expected points added. It’s been a headache all year, and it’s not going away.
3. The Jets’ effort
The thing about the Jets is that you cannot believe them or believe in them. They will make you look wrong. In Week 9, they went scoreless in the first half, and it looked like everything was over. Then Aaron Rodgers, Garrett Wilson and Davante Adams exploded in the second half, and suddenly we looked forward wondering if things were coming together.
Then they missed 17 tackles in a dreadful 31-6 loss to the Cardinals. No one likes tackling James Conner, but the Jets were especially averse to tackling him and anyone, really. Trey McBride is a superb player, but on a third and seven, down a score and with a chance to get the ball back, the Jets can’t do this:
Later in the game, the Jets gave up a first down on first-and-17 on a screen where Trey Benson broke one tackle and simply ran past another.
The Jets entered this game with no room for error and hoping to build off a win. Instead, the Cardinals scored four touchdowns and a field goal on their first five drives, encountering little resistance. This is all too familiar for the Jets, who are tied with the Buccaneers for the most missed tackles this season.
4. Bad Sam Darnold
Speaking of not finishing, Sam Darnold threw three interceptions, including two in the red zone. This easily could have been a four- or five-interception day for Darnold, who has 10 interceptions on the season and five in the last two weeks.
This is against a woeful Jaguars secondary, and it’s a product of a super-aggressive approach plus some really bad ball placement. Darnold has simply failed to see some defenders over the past few weeks, and of his five recent picks, four have been when targeting Justin Jefferson. I’m not saying he or the Vikings‘ offense has been figured out, but Minnesota needs its quarterback to be safer with the ball.
5. Enough with the fake punts
There’s an old joke that defensive backs are just former wide receivers who couldn’t catch well enough to continue playing offense as their careers progressed. It’s just that — a joke — but James Pierre didn’t exactly do his part to dispel it, either.
The Commanders scored three plays later.
This season, NFL teams have tried fake field goal/punt passes six times. They have converted for a first down once. The 17% conversion rate is on pace to be the worst this millennium. Some, like the Cowboys‘ last week, are well defended. Others, like this Steelers one, are poorly executed. It’s just not working.
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Author: Zachary Pereles
November 12, 2024 | 9:57 am
