5 plus-money NFL playoff futures to make before training camp: Bengals left out again? Bears breakout?

It’s back to school for the NFL. Training camps are on the precipice of opening up across the league, meaning we’re one step closer to the 2025 regular season. As these teams reconvene after the summer break, it provides us with an ideal opportunity to assess where each stands and predict how their year will ultimately unfold. 

Of course, a lot can happen between the start of training camp and Week 1, but it also presents a window for us to identify value on the betting markets. Specifically, we’re going to be looking at playoff futures and highlight a handful of plus-money wagers that could be worth your consideration. 

After all, the NFL does pride itself on parity. So, just because a club may be an underdog to make/miss the playoffs, it doesn’t mean that result is a certainty. Just take a look at the Denver Broncos and Washington Commanders last season. They were two teams to claw out from the bottom of the league and notch a playoff berth. Conversely, the San Francisco 49ers had been a juggernaut in the previous three seasons before the 2024 campaign, when they were on the outside looking in on the postseason. 

Below, we’re going to make the case for five plus-money playoff futures coming to fruition in 2025. 

Odds: +126 (via FanDuel Sportsbook)

If we simply ignore one side of the ball, the Bengals are a Super Bowl threat. However, that’s not how this game works. You need to be able to stop folks from putting points on the board just as much, if not more than, lighting up the scoreboard yourself. What’s the old adage? Defense wins championships. And in this case for Cincinnati, a lack of a defensive presence could nullify its high-priced move of retaining both Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins this offseason. 

The organization remains embattled in contract disputes with both Trey Hendrickson and rookie Shemar Stewart. The former could ultimately be traded, while it’s unclear when the latter will suit up. Needless to say, it’s a mess. And those two figures were meant to be the staples for a Bengals defense that is in desperate need of playmakers. 

In 2024, the Bengals lost two games where they scored 38 or more points (tied for the most in NFL history). Moreover, they lost six games where they scored at least 25 points (also tied for the most in NFL history).

This club has proven that it can’t simply use its offensive firepower to win games, and given how the roster is currently constructed, it leaves shaky ground for their playoff hopes yet again. 

That’s not even mentioning a tougher division with Baltimore maintaining its status as the AFC North favorites and the Pittsburgh Steelers emerging after overhauling the roster this offseason. 

Odds: +158 (via FanDuel Sportsbook)

The Patriots are going to look quite a bit different in 2025. After back-to-back 4-13 seasons, the franchise cannon-balled into the offseason, first by hiring Mike Vrabel as head coach, and then coming away with a number of playmakers via free agency and the NFL Draft. 

The free agent arrivals of defensive tackle Milton Williams, linebacker Robert Spillane, corner Carlton Davis, and pass rusher Harold Landry should provide immediate top-tier production to a defense that already has impact players like All-Pro corner Christian Gonzalez and, when healthy, defensive tackle Christian Barmore. That gives Vrabel the talent of a possible top-10 defense in the league. 

On the offensive side of the ball, Drake Maye was a lone bright spot from the 2024 campaign as the former No. 3 overall pick flashed his top-end potential throughout his rookie season. Now, the collection of talent around him has improved. Most importantly, the protection upfront should be better with first-rounder Will Campbell entrenched at left tackle, along with free agent signees Morgan Moses at right tackle and Garrett Bradbury at center. New England also added wideout Stefon Diggs in free agency on top of rookies TreVeyon Henderson and Kyle Williams to raise the ceiling of the skill positions. 

So, with an improved roster, better-equipped coaching staff, and an emerging second-year quarterback, there’s a lot to like about the Patriots catapulting to the playoffs in 2025. Outside of the improvements throughout the franchise, New England also has the second-easiest schedule in the NFL this season based on its opponents’ projected win totals. Its home schedule alone could produce six or seven wins, which means it’d need less than a handful of road victories to flirt with 10 wins and push for the postseason. 

Odds: +155 (via DraftKings Sportsbook)

This comes down to what you think about Michael Penix Jr., and the answer may not be as clear as one might want it to be. 

Looking at the numbers, the 2024 first-round pick wasn’t the most efficient when he stepped into the starting role. In his three starts at the end of the year, Penix completed just 58% of his passes and registered a 78.6 passer rating. The Falcons were also 1-2 over those starts. While those numbers don’t exactly inspire a ton of confidence, they also don’t tell the whole story. Penix was let down by his pass catchers at times during that stretch, and the Washington product did seem to pass the eye test as a capable starting quarterback in the NFL. And if you believe the eye test over that statistical output, Atlanta could be frisky in the NFC South. 

As the club ushers in Penix as the full-time starter, it helped him out by doubling down on its biggest weakness by selecting two pass rushers, Jalon Walker and James Pearce Jr., in the first round of the NFL Draft. The Falcons registered the second-fewest sacks in the NFL a season ago, and their pressure rate (20%) was also bottom 10 in the league. If Walker and Pearce can produce early in their careers, the Falcons suddenly have two pass rushers screaming off the edge and making them a more formidable unit. And that could be particularly helpful against their main division rival in the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, whom they play in Week 1 and will be without starting tackle Tristan Wirfs to begin the year. 

Similar to New England above, the Falcons also benefit from one of the easiest schedules in the league as well. Judging by their opponents’ combined win total for 2025, Atlanta is looking at the fourth-easiest schedule in the league, allowing them to build up wins en route to a playoff run. 

Odds: +165 (via Caesars Sportsbook)

The Chicago Bears had arguably the most impressive offseason in the entire NFL. They locked up Ben Johnson, who was one of the most highly coveted head coaching prospects in the league, and made tremendous strides improving the protection in front of Caleb Williams. 

The No. 1 overall pick now has an interior line constructed of guards Joe Thuney and Jonah Jackson, along with center Drew Dalman. That should make life significantly easier for Williams, who was sacked a remarkable 68 times last season (tied for the third-most all-time). Meanwhile, the front office also gave their your quarterback even more weapons on offense, drafting tight end Colston Loveland and wideout Luther Burden III over the first two rounds earlier this spring. 

With those pieces in place, it’s now up to Johnson to bring Williams to his highest potential, and Williams does appear to be a good scheme fit for how Johnson operates offensively. Specifically, Johnson and Williams both love play action. In Detroit, where Johnson was the offensive coordinator, the Lions ran play action at the highest rate in the NFL last season. Chicago’s play-action rate ranked 30th, despite strong production from Williams. 

This is merely a good example of how Johnson could tap into one of the more talented quarterback prospects we’ve seen come into the NFL in quite a while, which means the ceiling for Chicago is sky-high. 

There are also some questions regarding their division rivals, which could allow them to be more competitive than most folks think. If Detroit doesn’t respond well after losing both coordinators this offseason, it could take a semi-step back. And the Minnesota Vikings are ushering in J.J. McCarthy at quarterback, so they have a virtual unknown under center to begin the season. Could it work out? Yes. But he also could be a bust and crater their season if he’s not up to the job or, at the very least, needs more seasoning for Minnesota to truly contend, leaving room for Chicago to pounce. And as for the Packers, well, let’s get to Green Bay below. 

Green Bay Packers to miss playoffs

Odds: +110 (via BetMGM)

If we can make good cases for multiple non-playoff teams to crash the party in the NFC this season, there is bound to be a club or two that fall backwards. And we’re going to identify the Packers here as one of those candidates after making it in as a wild-card team a season ago. Yet again, Green Bay has seemingly landed on its feet at the quarterback position after transitioning from Aaron Rodgers to Jordan Love a couple of years ago. 

While Love has been able to keep them competitive since ascending to QB1, he’s awfully streaky. Specifically, he’s historically been a bit sluggish to begin the year and then heats up down the stretch. Last season, he was tied for an NFL-high 11 interceptions through Week 11, only to then turn it around with zero picks from Week 12 through Week 18. Naturally, Green Bay’s record reflects that streakiness over the previous two seasons. 

If Love continues to begin the year on a low note, the back end of Green Bay’s schedule doesn’t exactly give him a red carpet to rebound and thrust his team into the playoffs. Here are the Packers’ final seven games of the season: vs. Vikings, at Lions, vs. Bears, at Broncos, at Bears, vs. Ravens, at Vikings. All of those teams outside of Chicago — who we just made the case for improving this season — made the playoffs a year ago, and most boast stout defenses, further giving Love troubles. If he doesn’t develop into a more consistent quarterback, it could very well result in Green Bay missing out on the playoffs. 

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Author: Tyler Sullivan
July 18, 2025 | 12:50 pm