MetLife Stadium will be the center of attention in the NFL world for Sunday Night Football. The Kansas City Chiefs will visit the New York Jets in a Week 4 battle under the lights, the finale of a 14-game Sunday slate for the league. The reigning Super Bowl champion Chiefs are 2-1 to begin the season, including a 1-0 mark away from Kansas City. The Jets are 1-2 in 2023, winning the opener before losing the last two games. Pop star Taylor Swift will reportedly be in attendance to root on Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce.
Kickoff is at 8:20 p.m. ET. For this game, SportsLine consensus lists Kansas City as an 8.5-point favorite, while the over/under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 41.5 in the latest Chiefs vs. Jets odds. Before making any Jets vs. Chiefs picks or NFL predictions, you need to see the NFL betting advice from the SportsLine Projection Model.
The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 4 of the 2023 NFL season on an incredible 167-117 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. It is also on a 21-9 roll on top-rated NFL picks since Week 7 of last season.
The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94% of CBS Sports Football Pick’em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.
Now, the model has zeroed in on Chiefs vs. Jets and locked in another confident against-the-spread pick. You can see the model’s pick only at SportsLine. Now, here are several NFL odds and betting lines for Jets vs. Chiefs:
- Chiefs vs. Jets spread: Chiefs -8.5
- Chiefs vs. Jets over/under: 41.5 points
- Chiefs vs. Jets money line: Chiefs -425, Jets +325
- KC: Chiefs are 8-11-1 against the spread in the last 20 games
- NYJ: Jets are 9-11 against the spread in the last 20 games
- Chiefs vs. Jets picks: See picks at SportsLine
- Chiefs vs. Jets live stream: fubo (try for free)
Why the Chiefs can cover
Attention is rightfully paid to Kansas City’s offense, with Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce leading a unit that keyed a Super Bowl win a year ago. However, the Chiefs are also flying high on defense this season. Kansas City is No. 4 in the NFL in scoring defense, yielding only 13.3 points per game, and opponents are scoring only 1.03 points per drive against the Chiefs. The Chiefs have given up points on only 21.9% of possessions, and Kansas City gives up only 4.6 yards per play. Against the pass, Kansas City is stout, giving up only 178.0 passing yards per game and only two passing touchdowns in three contests.
That helps the group to post top-five marks in first downs allowed (48), third down efficiency allowed (30.8%), and red zone efficiency allowed (37.5%). Defensive tackle Chris Jones is the anchor of Kansas City’s defensive approach and, after he missed Week 1, Jones produced 2.5 sacks in the last two games. That comes after a 2022 campaign in which he finished near the top of the NFL with 15.5 sacks and 17 tackles for loss, and Jones is a four-time Pro Bowl selection. See which team to pick here.
Why the Jets can cover
The Jets are giving up only 20.3 points per game this season while limiting opponents to just 1.61 points per drive. That comes after a 2022 campaign in which New York finished in the top four in passing yards allowed, total yards allowed, and points allowed over the 17-game regular season. The Jets are also in the top 10 of the league in allowing only 4.8 yards per play in 2023 and opponents generate only 3.7 yards per rush attempt against New York.
The Jets are elite in the red zone, posting a top-five mark in efficiency allowed (37.5%), and New York has not allowed a rushing touchdown this season. Turnovers could also be pivotal in this game, with Kansas City already giving the ball away six times this year and New York producing four takeaways. New York’s defense is full of star power, but the headliner may be Sauce Gardner. The young defensive back finished as a 2022 first team All-Pro selection and 2022 NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year, with Gardner leading the league with 20 passes defended last season. See which team to pick here.
How to make Chiefs vs. Jets picks
Now, the model has broken down Jets vs. Chiefs from every angle. The model is leaning over the point total as both teams struggle to get the run game going in the simulations. It also says one side of the spread cashes in well over 50% of simulations. You can only see the model’s NFL picks and analysis at SportsLine.
So who wins Jets vs. Chiefs on Sunday Night Football, and which side of the spread hits in well over 50% of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Jets vs. Chiefs spread you should jump on, all from the advanced model that is up well over $7,000 on top-rated NFL picks, and find out.
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Author: CBS Sports Staff
October 1, 2023 | 10:26 am
