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Fantasy Football Today: Player outlooks for every seventh-round draft pick by consensus PPR rankings

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The 2024 Fantasy Football season is on the way and the Fantasy Football Today team has drafted their initial player outlooks for the entire player pool heading into training camp. Things will change on the injury front, in free agency, and possibly on the trade market, but the Fantasy Football team led by Dave Richard, Jamey Eisenberg, Heath Cummings, and Dan Schneier have created player outlooks based on 2024 projection, June ADP (average draft position) and where these players have come off the board in our mock (and real) drafts through May and June. We’ll use the FFT consensus PPR rankings (Jamey, Dave, and Heath’s rankings) to go player-by-player for the seventh round (12-team leagues) of your drafts.

*These consensus rankings are updated through June 10.*

Round 7

“Kittle’s 12.7 PPR points per game last year was good enough to finish as the sixth-best tight end in Fantasy, but it was still a six-year low for the veteran tight end. Hand in hand with that is a declining target share that hit 5.6 per game last season (5.1 in games Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk were involved in). Most TEs with that low volume need a lot of touchdowns to compensate for it; Kittle recorded six scores in 2023, tied for the second-most in a season of his career. The 31-year-old is still fun to watch and playing in a fantastic offense, but it seems like a return to a heavy-volume role is unlikely. Think of him as a start-worthy Fantasy option worth grabbing as soon as 70th overall, but not as an elite-tier at tight end.” – Dave Richard

“There’s a very real chance McConkey, the Chargers’ second-round pick out of Georgia, will lead the team in receptions and receiving yards this season. That’s why he’s arguably the first Chargers player you should draft in one-QB leagues — even ahead of Justin Herbert. McConkey was great in college because he was in sync with his quarterback, and through offseason workouts it appears he’s already connecting with Herbert. That’ll help McConkey replace Keenan Allen as the Chargers’ slot receiver, a role that could open up for as many as seven targets per game (Allen saw 8.5 or more targets per game in each of his last seven seasons but it was in a different system). And while McConkey is slight (5-foot-8 and 186 pounds), he is a route-running maestro who will get open frequently. His upside is greater in PPR since his volume figures to be high, which is why Round 7 is a decent time to take him; wait another round in redraft non-PPR leagues. As for rookie-only drafts, expect McConkey to get grabbed anywhere from sixth to 10th overall depending on format and scoring.” – Dave Richard

“Richardson’s combination of arm strength, arm talent, and rushing upside earned him a top-10 ranking across the board from our experts heading into his first NFL season. Richardson was a Fantasy superstar immediately, averaging 25.9 points per game in his two full starts. This would put him on pace to be the QB1 overall over a full season. Of course, Richardson didn’t play a full season and instead suffered a season-ending shoulder injury in Week 5. In 2024, Richardson will once again be one of the highest-upside QBs in Fantasy Football, but he will carry a boom-or-bust profile due to his injury profile. The Colts added Adonai Mitchell at WR in the draft and Richardson will get the benefit of playing with Jonathan Taylor in 2024. If he stays healthy, Richardson will be a league-winning player who you can grab in the sixth round of your one-QB leagues.” – Dan Schneier

“Warren enters this season as one of the best backup running backs in the NFL, and he should be considered a high-end flex in the majority of leagues. Warren is worth drafting as early as Round 7 in all formats. He’s coming off a solid campaign in 2023 with over 1,000 total yards and four total touchdowns, including 61 receptions on 74 targets. The offense in Pittsburgh should improve this season with the addition of offensive coordinator Arthur Smith and quarterbacks Russell Wilson and Justin Fields. But Warren still has to contend with Najee Harris, who should remain the workhorse for the Steelers when it comes to carrying the ball. Long-term, Warren could be the running back of the future in Pittsburgh since Harris is entering a contract year, and the Steelers appear willing to move on after this season. But in 2024, Harris should continue to lead Pittsburgh in carries, with Warren mixing in and getting plenty of work in the passing game. Warren’s value is higher in PPR, but he can still be a high-end flex in all leagues this year. ” – Jamey Eisenberg

“Signed to a one-year deal this offseason, the 27-year-old Brown will be in the mix for targets from Patrick Mahomes in Kansas City. That sounds amazing but the truth is no single wide receiver has had seven or more targets per game in the two seasons since Tyreek Hill left town. That was even the case when Rashee Rice averaged 6.4 targets per game in 2023 — and that was with minimal competition at wideout. Rice is still a part of the Chiefs and rookie first-rounder Xavier Worthy has joined the team too, plus Travis Kelce is still a priority in the offense, making the receiving room crowded when you include Brown. Make no mistake, there have been stretches in each of the past three seasons where Brown’s target volume rose and his Fantasy production was awesome, but those stretches didn’t last. Perhaps there will be another stretch for Brown if Rice isn’t available to start 2024, but even then there’s no guarantee Brown will levitate back to must-start status. Until it’s clear that Rice will miss the start of the season, Brown should be viewed as a good bench receiver worth grabbing in Round 8 in full PPR (a half-round later in non-PPR).” – Dave Richard

“We’re drafting Prescott as a top-eight quarterback no earlier than Round 6 in a one-quarterback league. He’s a first-round pick in most Superflex leagues, and if he repeats what he did last year he’ll be a value at cost once again. If you wanted to look for reasons Prescott won’t repeat, you start with his 6.1% pass TD rate, which was about a point higher than his career average. However, he’s been at 6% for three years now. The truth is, he has essentially been a top-five Fantasy quarterback since the start of 2020, except for 2022 which was marred by injury and some terrible turnover luck. Prescott is one of the best reasons not to draft a quarterback early because he should give you 90% of their production four rounds later. In Dynasty we’d feel better about Prescott if he signed a long-term deal. For now, view him as a high-end QB2 who is more valuable than that to contenders.” – Heath Cummings

“Johnson was traded from Pittsburgh to Carolina this offseason, and he should be the new No. 1 receiver for Bryce Young. Johnson is worth drafting as early as Round 7 in the majority of leagues as a No. 3 Fantasy receiver, with his value higher in PPR. He will compete with Adam Thielen and rookie Xavier Legette for targets, but Young should find Johnson to be his most reliable receiver. He’s coming off a quality season in 2023 with the Steelers at 11.8 PPR points per game, but Johnson has two years on his resume with at least 15.6 PPR points per game. The Panthers offense could be a surprise this season with new coach Dave Canales, who has gotten solid years out of Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett as an offensive coordinator. If Young leans on Johnson as expected then he could be a valuable Fantasy asset, especially if you draft him at the right price.” – Jamey Eisenberg

“Fantasy managers have been waiting for Pitts to take the next step ever since his rookie campaign where he racked up 1,000-plus receiving yards but failed to make an impact as a touchdown scorer. Since then, he hasn’t taken a step in the red zone while also regressing from a receiving standpoint. In 2023, Pitts scored just the 16th-most Fantasy points per game (PPR) among TEs, he was on the field for just 64% of Atlanta’s snaps (19th-most among TEs) and he saw just 5.3 targets per game (15th-most among TEs). Pitts was working his way back from offseason surgery and didn’t look himself in 2023. In 2024, the outlook has changed entirely. Pitts gets a major upgrade with Kirk Cousins at quarterback — the same quarterback who helped T.J. Hockenson break into the elite TE tier in Fantasy. He also gets an upgrade in offensive system with Atlanta’s new play caller expected to get him more snaps and more targets. Pitts is being drafted again as a TE1, but there have been enough Fantasy managers burned by him in the past that you can still get him in the Round 5/6 range. He is one of just a handful of TEs with TE1 overall in his range of outcomes..” – Dan Schneier

“Despite the fact that we expect him to open the season as the Dolphins starting running back, Mostert is best drafted as a flex or RB3, no earlier than Round 7 in full PPR. Mostert is more valuable in leagues where catches don’t count for as much, as he only saw nine targets in the last eight games of 2023. The 32-year-old just led the NFL in rushing touchdowns despite the fact that he missed the last two and a half games of the season. In 2024, he’ll try to hold off both De’Von Achane and Jaylen Wright. We’re very skeptical he’ll be able to do that and stay healthy all year long. Mostert is an excellent choice for a zero-RB team that needs a starter at the beginning of the year, and if he’s still healthy in November he’ll be a cheap buy for contending Dynasty teams as well. ” – Jamey Eisenberg

“Addison quietly had a solid rookie campaign in 2023, and he’s looking to build off that performance this year. Addison is worth drafting as a high-end No. 3 Fantasy receiver with a mid-round pick. As a rookie, Addison was one of six receivers to score double digits in touchdowns with 10, and he averaged 13.0 PPR points per game. This season, Addison will get a new quarterback in either J.J. McCarthy or Sam Darnold, and there could be an adjustment for Addison. But Addison could also benefit with T.J. Hockenson (knee) potentially out to start the season, which could lead to more targets for Addison. He has the upside to be a top-20 Fantasy receiver in all leagues, and he’s someone to draft as early as Round 6.” – Jamey Eisenberg

“Watson is hopeful that the hamstring problems he’s dealt with over the first two seasons of his career are behind him, and he can start playing at a high level in Year 3. When healthy, Watson could be the best receiver in Green Bay, and he’s worth drafting as early as Round 7 in all leagues. Hamstring problems resulted in multi-game absences three times during Watson’s first two NFL seasons, and he was also removed early from other contests with a concussion, chest injury, hip injury and back/chest injury. When healthy, Watson has produced some huge games, scoring at least 16.6 PPR points in seven of 23 games, and he has averaged at least 11.3 PPR points per game in each year of his career. The Packers have a loaded receiving corps with Jayden Reed, Romeo Doubs and Dontayvion Wicks, but Watson has the highest ceiling of the group. Hopefully, he can stay healthy for most of 2024, and this could be a breakout season for him in his third year.” – Jamey Eisenberg

7.12: Keenan Allen, WR, Bears

“A new team, a crowded receiving corps and a rookie quarterback are likely to rein in Allen’s numbers in 2024, making him more of a No. 3 Fantasy receiver in PPR leagues. Allen has consistently been a good stat producer, but he’s also averaged at least six catches per game in each of his past seven seasons. Now in Chicago, the 32-year-old will share the field with D.J. Moore and first-rounder Rome Odunze while catching passes from rookie No. 1 overall pick Caleb Williams. It’s clear Allen won’t have the 8.5 or more targets per game he’s enjoyed in each of his last seven seasons, and it’s also clear from watching him last season that he’s not as explosive as he once was. With receptions his primary way of scoring Fantasy points, Allen could hit eight-year lows in Fantasy point totals, even if he’s helping the Bears offense in other ways. We’d consider Allen in Round 8 in PPR drafts, Round 9-plus in non-PPR.” – Dave Richard

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Author: Dan Schneier
June 12, 2024 | 4:10 pm

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