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2024 Week 1 NFL picks, odds, best bets from advanced model: This five-way football parlay pays out 25-1

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Rookie quarterback Bo Nix will get his pro career underway when the Denver Broncos visit the Seattle Seahawks on Sunday. Nix beat out veterans Jarrett Sitdham and Zach Wilson to win the Broncos’ starting job and is among the top contenders to win the 2024 Offensive Rookie of the Year award. The Seahawks are 5.5-point favorites in the latest Week 1 NFL odds, one of the largest NFL spreads of the week. Fellow rookie quarterbacks Caleb Williams and Jayden Daniels will also make their regular season NFL debuts.

Williams and the Chicago Bears are 4.5-point favorites at home against the Tennessee Titans, while Daniels and the Washington Commanders are 3.5-point road underdogs against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Should you target any of these games when making Week 1 NFL parlay picks and NFL bets? Before you make any Week 1 NFL picks or NFL parlays, be sure to see the NFL predictions and betting advice from SportsLine’s proven computer model.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 1 of the 2024 NFL season on an incredible 185-129 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. It is also on a 39-21 roll on top-rated NFL picks since Week 7 of last season.

The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94% of CBS Sports Football Pick’em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now, the model has scoured the Week 1 NFL odds and locked in five confident NFL best bets. If you successfully parlay its picks, you’d be looking at a massive payout of around 25-1. You can only see the model’s Week 1 NFL picks at SportsLine.

Top Week 1 NFL picks

After simulating every game 10,000 times, the model is high on the Detroit Lions (-3.5) to cover at home against the Los Angeles Rams. This will be a rematch of the Wild Card matchup between these teams in last year’s NFC Playoffs — a thrilling game the Lions won 24-23. Detroit had one of the NFL’s top offenses in 2023, and the bulk of that unit remains intact heading into 2024.

Detroit has arguably the top offensive line in the NFL, to go along with playmakers all over the field. Wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown and tight end Sam LaPorta are both All-Pro candidates, and the running back duo of Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery can be difficult to contain. The Lions have the added benefit of playing this game at Ford Field, where fan support for the Lions may be at an all-time high. See which other NFL parlay picks to make here.

How to make Week 1 NFL parlays

The model also jumped on four other NFL matchups where it says the line is way off, including a home favorite that covers the spread in almost 70% of simulations. You can only see the model’s NFL Week 1 best bets and parlay at SportsLine. 

What are the model’s top Week 1 NFL picks, and which other NFL matchups should you target for a strong 25-1 payout? Visit SportsLine now to see the Week 1 NFL best bets from a model on a 185-129 run on top-rated picks, and find out.

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Author: CBS Sports Staff
September 2, 2024 | 10:20 am

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