NFL

NFL odds, Vegas lines, picks, spreads, game predictions: Model backs Bills and Chargers in Week 1, 2024

by
SaC Bot
September 6, 2024

USATSI

The Cincinnati Bengals are still the largest favorites on the Week 1 NFL schedule, as Joe Burrow and company open their season against the New England Patriots on Sunday. However, after opening as 9-point favorites in the Week 1 NFL odds via SportsLine Consensus, that line has retreated to Bengals -8.5. So what’s the cause of that NFL line movement and how should you play the NFL odds for Bengals vs. Patriots and the rest of the schedule in your Week 1 NFL picks?

The slimmest favorites of the week are the Vikings (-1.5) as they battle the Giants on the road. Sam Darnold vs. Daniel Jones might sound like a hard pass for bettors, but is there value to be found one of the the tightest NFL lines among NFL openers? All of the Week 1 NFL lines are listed below, and SportsLine’s advanced computer model has all the NFL betting advice and NFL predictions you need to make the best Week 1 NFL picks now.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on A-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 1 of the 2024 NFL season on an incredible 185-129 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. It is also on a 39-21 roll on A-rated NFL picks since Week 7 of the 2022 NFL season.

The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94% of CBS Sports Football Pick’em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now, it has turned its attention to the latest Week 1 NFL odds and NFL betting lines on the spread, money line, and over-under, and locked in picks for every NFL matchup. Head here to see every pick.

Top Week 1 NFL predictions

We can tell you one of the model’s strongest Week 1 NFL picks is that the Chargers (-3) cover the spread at home versus the Raiders. Los Angeles’ offense will look vastly different in 2024 after wide receiver Keenan Allen and running back Austin Ekeler departed this offseason. Luckily for the Chargers, quarterback Justin Herbert enters the 2024 season healthy after dealing with injuries in 2023.

Herbert played in just 13 games last season but was effective in Los Angeles’ 24-17 win over the Raiders on Oct. 1, 2023. Herbert threw for 167 yards and a touchdown, while also rushing for 27 yards and two scores. He’s had success against the Raiders throughout his career, throwing 15 passing touchdowns against just two interceptions while rushing for three scores. In addition, the Raiders are 1-5 in their last six games played in September. SportsLine’s model sees that trend continuing in Week 1 as the Chargers cover the spread over 60% of the time in Jim Harbaugh’s debut as Los Angeles’ head coach. See which other teams to pick here.

Another one of its Week 1 NFL predictions: the Bills (-6.5) cover at home versus the Cardinals. This game kicks off at 1 p.m. ET, so it will be an early start against a premier opponent for Arizona. Jonathan Gannon’s squad competed hard last year and made improvements, but this is still a 4-13 team beginning the season in about as tough of a spot as you can imagine.

The Cardinals are 1-5 against the spread in their last six games against AFC East opponents and the Bills are a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last five against the NFC West. Arizona ranked 31st in the NFL in scoring defense, was last in the NFL against the run and allowed the third-most passing touchdowns of any team. Josh Allen can take them by land or by air, and the model is predicting that Buffalo covers in nearly 70% of simulations. See which other teams to pick here.

How to make Week 1 NFL picks

The model has also made the call on who wins and covers in every other game on the Week 1 NFL schedule and just revealed four teams that win outright over 70% of the time. You can only get every pick for every game at SportsLine.

So what NFL picks can you make with confidence, and which four favorites should you lock in now? Check out the latest NFL odds below, then visit SportsLine to see which teams win and cover the spread, all from a proven computer model that has returned well over $7,000, and find out.