Commanders vs. Browns prediction, odds, line, spread, time: 2024 NFL picks, Week 5 best bets from proven model

The Washington Commanders look to win their fourth straight game as they host the Cleveland Browns on Sunday afternoon. The Commanders (3-1) boast rookie phenom, quarterback Jayden Daniels, and enter off a 42-14 blowout road win over the Cardinals. The Browns (1-3) fell to the Raiders on the road, 20-16 in Week 4. Cleveland has won each of the last two meetings, including a 24-10 win on New Year’s Day 2023.

Kickoff from Northwest Stadium is set for 1 p.m. ET. Washington is a 3-point favorite in the latest Commanders vs. Browns odds, per SportsLine consensus, while the over/under for total points is 43.5. Before making any Browns vs. Commanders picks, you need to see the NFL predictions and betting advice from the proven computer model at SportsLine.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 5 of the 2024 NFL season on an incredible 188-131 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. It is also on a 42-23 roll on top-rated NFL picks since Week 7 of 2022.

The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94% of CBS Sports Football Pick’em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now, the model has set its sights on Browns vs. Commanders and just locked in its picks and NFL Week 5 predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model’s picks. Here are several NFL odds and betting lines for spread, money line and over/under:

• Commanders vs. Browns spread: Commanders -3
• Commanders vs. Browns over/under: 43.5 points
• Commanders vs. Browns money line: Commanders -170, Browns +142
• Commanders vs. Browns picks: See picks at SportsLine
• Commanders vs. Browns streaming: FuboTV (Try for free)

Why the Browns can cover

Cleveland quarterback Deshaun Watson has to play up to his potential, which he hasn’t consistently as a member of the Browns. The Browns QB has failed to surpass 200 yards passing in all four games, throwing for only four touchdowns against three interceptions. His offensive line isn’t doing him any favors though, as Watson has been sacked 19 times in 2024.

There is an opportunity for success, however, considering that Washington boasts the sixth worst defense in the NFL surrendering more than 357 yards per game. Top wide receiver Amari Cooper has been a massive disappointment, catching only 16 of 37 targets for 148 yards and two touchdowns. He had a long touchdown wiped out last week against the Raiders that would’ve changed the game and possibly the direction of Cleveland’s season. The Browns’ offense will need to step up or the team will be staring 1-4 square in the face. See which team to pick here.

Why the Commanders can cover

Only four games into his NFL career, not many quarterbacks are playing better this season than Daniels, the No. 2 overall pick in April’s draft. Though he’s only thrown for three touchdowns, the rookie has rushed for four more and only turned the ball over once. Washington’s opening day loss to Tampa Bay has been in the rearview mirror, as their new star has propelled them to three straight victories, including two on the road.

Daniels’ top target, wide receiver Terry McLaurin, got off to a slow start in 2024 but has played excellent over the team’s last two games. He has a combined 11 catches for 152 yards and two touchdowns in consecutive road wins over Cincinnati and Arizona, and will be Daniels’ first read in the passing game most of the time. In the meantime, Washington will lean on its rushing attack, though running back Brian Robinson Jr.’s (knee) is listed as questionable. See which team to pick here.

How to make Browns vs. Commanders picks

The model has simulated Cleveland vs. Washington 10,000 times and the results are in. It is leaning Over on the point total, and it also says one side of the spread hits over 50% of the time. You can only see the model’s Browns vs. Commanders pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Washington vs. Cleveland on Sunday, and which side of the spread hits over 50% of the time? Visit SportsLine right now to see which side of the Browns vs. Commanders spread you should be all over Sunday, all from the model on a 188-131 roll on its top-rated NFL picks, and find out.