2025 NFL Draft best bets: Position of first player drafted for each AFC team, plus takeaways

The 2025 NFL Draft is fast approaching and teams across the league are putting the finishing touches on their boards before the madness unfolds. While various front offices are getting their ducks in order, all of us at home are combing through the latest mock drafts and trying to figure out a way to profit from the draft via the betting markets. 

One of the more popular betting verticals for the draft is wagering on which position a team targets first. Given that the draft has such variance and uncertainty of how the board will ultimately fall into place, it creates a fascinating position for us to find value on the board. With that in mind, we’ve rolled out every team in the AFC and showcased their odds for which position they’ll draft first. We’ll also provide some of the key takeaways from their odds.  

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

AFC East

Buffalo Bills

Miami Dolphins

New England Patriots

New York Jets

AFC East takeaways: When it comes to the Bills, they are firmly in a Super Bowl window with Josh Allen at the helm, and pick the latest out of any other team in the division. Naturally, with it being a bit more clouded as to who’ll actually be on the board for them, it does present some interesting value. For instance, CBS Sports’ Mike Renner has Buffalo selecting Kentucky corner Maxwell Hairston with the 30th overall pick. If the Bills were to take a corner — a key need for them — that’d pay out at +275. 

As for the Dolphins, who own the 13th pick in the draft, they could go in a multitude of directions. Given that Terron Armstead announced his retirement, it’s no surprise to see the offensive line as the favorite for them to target first at +115. However, I wouldn’t sleep on the Dolphins possibly addressing the secondary either, especially after they have mutually agreed to seek a trade for Jalen Ramsey. So, a corner being their first pick could present decent value at +230. 

The Patriots would ideally like to see pass rusher Abdul Carter or wideout/corner Travis Hunter fall to them at No. 4, but the oddsmakers are telling us that’s unlikely with offensive line sitting as the favorite at -185 for the first position selected. Still, if either New York or Cleveland opts to select Colorado QB Shedeur Sanders, it creates fascinating value for defensive line/edge at +250 or cornerback (which is what they list Hunter as) at +1100. Even if both Hunter and Carter are off the board for New England, defensive line/edge could still be worth a look with the team reportedly enamored with Michigan defensive lineman Mason Graham. 

Lastly for the AFC East, the Jets are a team that could go in a multitude of directions, but the oddsmakers have offensive line as the favorite at -125. That jives with Mike Renner’s recent three-round mock where he has New York selecting Missouri offensive tackle Armand Membou. That said, I don’t believe the presence of Justin Fields would preclude them from exploring a quarterback in the first round, particularly if Sanders is still on the board, so QB at +1000 is interesting. 

AFC North

Baltimore Ravens

Cincinnati Bengals

Pittsburgh Steelers

AFC North takeaways: With the Browns holding the No. 2 overall pick, the oddsmakers have taken their prop of which player they’ll select first off the board. Elsewhere in the division, there could be a worthwhile market revolving around the Baltimore Ravens. While defensive line/edge is the favorite for them to select first at +100, various CBS Sports NFL Draft experts have mocked Georgia safety Malaki Starks to the Ravens. If that came to fruition, that’s a +500 ticket currently. Meanwhile, they could also look at the offensive line as suggested by Mike Renner in his recent mock with the team selecting Oregon lineman Josh Conerly Jr., which would pay out at +300. 

With the Bengals, it’s no surprise to see the top three positions they are likely to draft all coming on the defensive side of the ball. Renner has them taking Georgia pass rusher Mykel Williams, which falls in line with the betting favorite position being defensive line/edge at -150. Where there could be some value, however, is at the safety position, which is +600. CBS Sports NFL Draft expert Ryan Wilson has Cincy selecting South Carolina safety Nick Emmanwori at No. 17 overall in his latest mock draft. 

As for the Steelers, they are in dire need of a quarterback as they hang in the balance of Aaron Rodgers‘ decision. Even if he does decide to sign with them, however, it still doesn’t answer the long-term questions surrounding the position. So, if Shedeur Sanders is available at No. 21, it will be fascinating to see what they do, particularly if you’re holding a +225 ticket on them taking a signal-caller. 

AFC South

Houston Texans

Indianapolis Colts

Jacksonville Jaguars

AFC South takeaways: The Tennessee Titans are off the board with this prop as it’s all been assured they’ll be selecting Miami quarterback Cam Ward with the first overall pick. Meanwhile, the Houston Texans are overwhelmingly favored to take an offensive lineman with their first pick at -260, which is not surprising given the overhaul of the line they’ve conducted this offseason. They hold the 25th pick in the first round, and Renner has them taking Alabama interior lineman Tyler Booker in his latest mock. Fellow CBS Sports NFL Draft analysts like Ryan Wilson, Chris Trapasso and Josh Edwards all also have the Texans addressing the offensive line first. 

The Indianapolis Colts hold the No. 14 overall pick in the NFL Draft and are favored to select a tight end with their first selection at +100. Tyler Warren is the top tight end in this class and if you believe that’s who Indy will target to address the tight end position, you may be better off simply taking Warren to specifically be selected by the Colts at +160. 

Lastly in the division, the Jaguars are favored to take a defensive lineman/edge player with their first pick, which is currently slotted at No. 5 overall. Folks consider Michigan defensive lineman Mason Graham as the target for the Jags if he’s on the board, so there is still some value even at -135. 

AFC West

Denver Broncos

Kansas City Chiefs

Los Angeles Chargers

Las Vegas Raiders

AFC West takeaways: The Broncos have a pretty big need at running back, so it’s not surprising to see that position slotted as the favorite for them to address first at +135. CBS Sports’ Mike Renner has them selecting UNC back Omarion Hampton in his latest mock, so that would coincide with these odds. 

Meanwhile, the Kansas City Chiefs should look to solidify their offensive line after Patrick Mahomes was bombarded in Super Bowl LIX. However, because they are selecting at No. 31 overall, it’s more of a dice roll of who’ll be available to them and they could simply opt for a best-player-available approach. For instance, Renner has Michigan corner Will Johnson falling to K.C., and that would pay out at +900 if the Chiefs took a corner. Ryan Wilson has them taking Toledo defensive lineman Darius Alexander in his latest mock and that pays at +150. 

The Chargers hold the 22nd pick, and it will be interesting to see how Jim Harbaugh operates if one of his former Michigan players like tight end Colston Loveland is on the board. He’d fill a need and it would pay out at +300.

With the Las Vegas Raiders, they hold the sixth pick. While they did acquire Geno Smith in a trade with the Seahawks earlier this offseason and inked him to an extension, he will turn 35 next season so they do need to find a long-term answer at quarterback. It’s for that reason that I don’t rule out Shedeur Sanders at this spot, which would pay out nicely at +1700. Of course, running back is the clear favorite at -150 because of the team’s glaring need in the backfield and Boise State back Ashton Jeanty likely there to be had. Jeanty is also -150 to be selected by the Raiders straight up.