The NFL Draft is officially here, and it truly is one of the best events in sports. That’s not an exaggeration by the way. There will be multiple “winners” and multiple “losers” throughout these eventful three days, as 32 different front offices try to maneuver their way to greatness. There will be consequential trades up and down the draft board, first-round reaches and seventh-round gems unearthed. Whatever happens, it will surely be more entertaining than Super Bowl LIX.
When it comes to the draft, there are narratives floating around that may be true, or completely false. Teams want certain players to fall to them while others aim to inflate the stock of a prospect. I think you would agree there have been some wild reports come out over the past couple weeks.
What draft narratives should you believe, and which should you completely ignore? Below, we will break down some of the biggest draft rumors as we inch closer to the big day, and if we are buying or selling on them.
Rumor: Shedeur Sanders will go late in the first round
This is one of the main storylines of the first round. It’s not just because Shedeur Sanders is the son of an NFL legend, it’s because he’s a quarterback that has been mocked as high as No. 1 overall, to falling out of the first round completely. That’s not something that happens every year.
Sanders is CBS Sports’ No. 28 overall prospect in this class, and No. 2 quarterback behind Cam Ward. If you’re not a believer in this prospect, consider that Sanders leaves college with the highest completion percentage in FBS history (71.8%). He’s a very accurate thrower of the football, and throws with nice anticipation as well. I understand why some believe he doesn’t have an incredibly high ceiling, but does he have a high floor? The New Orleans Saints at No. 9 overall have a legitimate need at quarterback with the Derek Carr injury news. Then you never know what will happen with the Cleveland Browns and New York Giants at No. 2 and No. 3.
If you’re looking for advice on how to make money regarding Sanders’ draft position, I don’t feel confident enough to give an answer. But when I pulled up Sanders’ odds to be a top 10 pick at BetMGM Sportsbook, I was absolutely shocked to see it’s currently listed at -200. I’ll say he goes before that interesting No. 21 spot where the Pittsburgh Steelers reside.
Verdict: Sell
Rumor: Jaguars will surprise everyone at No. 5 overall
If it’s not Ward to the Tennessee Titans at No. 1 overall, the most commonly mocked picked is Mason Graham to the Jaguars at No. 5 overall. There’s more to this situation than just groupthink, as Graham was even seen working out in a Jaguars shirt in a video posted to social media before the video was deleted.
However, some noise regarding the Jaguars surfaced this week. On Monday, ESPN reported Jacksonville could be a “wild card” and instead take a player like wide receiver Tet McMillan or maybe even running back Ashton Jeanty. There was even a dramatic shift in odds regarding who will be selected at No. 5 overall at sportsbooks. I’m not buying it. I think this could be a play to make other teams uneasy and get those phones in Jacksonville to ring. Maybe this strategy works and the Jaguars receive a nice offer to trade down, but if they stick at No. 5, I believe it will be Graham. In fact, I think the first five picks could end up being chalk.
Verdict: Sell
Rumor: Jalen Milroe is QB3
Alabama’s Jalen Milroe may be the most interesting quarterback prospect in this class. Browns general manager Andrew Berry believes he could be faster than Lamar Jackson, but at the same time his accuracy is a work in progress. Milroe may have an “NFL arm,” but he’s the kind of player that probably needs to sit for a year or two. Some analysts have compared him to Jalen Hurts and Kordell Stewart, but the fact of the matter is Milroe threw five touchdowns compared to 10 interceptions in SEC play last year.
The rumor mill began to churn earlier this month when Milroe accepted an invite to the draft. Why would the NFL invite a player who won’t be a first-round pick? Does this mean that Milroe could go on opening night? That would surprise me. It would also surprise me if he was selected over Jaxson Dart.
Verdict: Sell
Rumor: A team will trade back into the first round for a QB
I believe this is exactly what will happen on Thursday. Late in the first round, we are going to see a team like the Las Vegas Raiders, Giants or Browns trade up late in the first round and take a quarterback like Dart. Why? For one, all three of those teams are currently slated to select within the first five picks of Day 2, so they will be jockeying for Dart or Sanders if he drops. Also, keep in mind those first-round picks get the fifth-year options on their rookie contracts as well.
Verdict: Buy
Rumor: Colston Loveland will be the first TE selected
There’s love coming in for Loveland. Tyler Warren was previously a very heavy favorite to be the first tight end selected, but now he’s -400 while Loveland is just +250, per BetMGM Sportsbook. The Michigan product caught 101 passes for 1,231 yards and nine touchdowns over the last two seasons, and he accounted for 34.7% of the Wolverines’ receiving yards last season — which was the second-highest rate by any FBS tight end. Loveland is a talented prospect that could be a top 15 pick, but Warren was the best tight end in the country this past season and flashed some incredible versatility.
Verdict: Sell
Rumor: Luther Burden III will fall out of the first round
It would not be wise to base all of your opinions off of mock drafts, but it is interesting that most do not include Missouri wideout Luther Burden III. He’s a legitimate first-round talent, and a prospect CBS Sports ranked as the No. 2 wide receiver while comparing him to Deebo Samuel. Burden led the SEC in receptions (192) from 2022-24, and racked up 1,407 yards after the catch in his collegiate career.
The talent doesn’t match where he’s going in these mock drafts, so maybe there’s something related to off-field issues that has him falling down draft boards. I’m going to call my shot, I’m not buying into the negative noise — at least not all of it. Maybe there’s something we’re not privy to, but Burden should be a first-round pick, and I’ll take that bet at +180 over at DraftKings Sportsbook. With that said, I do expect this bet to be a sweat should you place it. Burden could go somewhere in the final five picks on opening night.
Verdict: Sell
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Author: Jordan Dajani
April 22, 2025 | 9:55 am
