NFL sophomore slumps: Will Commanders’ Jayden Daniels, Broncos’ Bo Nix avoid regression in Year 2?

When NFL rookies burst onto the scene with splashy success, it’s not hard to proclaim them surefire stars of the future. If a player can light the league on fire in his very first year at the professional level, after all, he’s bound to soar to even greater heights with added experience, right?

Not always. Some gems do emerge immediately and remain among the game’s elite; think of recent wide receivers like Ja’Marr Chase and Justin Jefferson, who took the NFL by storm only to remain among the league’s top playmakers in ensuing seasons. Just as many, if not more, youngsters struggle to replicate immediate success thanks to the inescapable rigors of the NFL — injuries, adaptive opponents, etc.

Houston Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud is a prime example. He was downright stellar as a first-year signal-caller in 2023, claiming Offensive Rookie of the Year honors after leading the Texans to an unexpected playoff appearance. Behind a shakier front and bruised pass catching corps in 2024, the popular MVP pick was far less effective, scraping and clawing his way back to the postseason.

With that in mind, which recent NFL stars could be in for their own sophomore slump in 2025? Here’s a look at some of 2024’s top rookies, and whether or not they’re truly in danger of a big dip in Year 2:

Daniels followed Stroud as Offensive Rookie of the Year, but he was even more dynamic, elevating Washington from hopeful rebuild to NFC heavyweight with effortless touch, mobility and crunch-time poise. It’s very possible the Commanders‘ dependence on aging and/or injury-prone veterans (i.e. Deebo Samuel, Zach Ertz, Laremy Tunsil) could force Daniels to do too much. All in all, though, his setup looks deeper than it did in 2024, and it’s impossible to ignore the mettle he pairs with his physical gifts. Remember that he wasn’t necessarily a high-volume thrower until later in his magical rookie campaign.

Sophomore slump prediction: Should avoid

While Daniels stole the show as 2024’s premier rookie quarterback, Nix wasn’t that far behind; his development was simply masked by the Denver Broncos‘ lesser big-game appeal. He’s also got a chance to go from promisingly scrappy to legitimately dangerous after another offseason under Sean Payton’s tutelage, with added supporting pieces on offense in RJ Harvey, Pat Bryant and veteran tight end Evan Engram. Denver’s scary-looking defense could also be huge in lessening his burden. Eclipsing 29 passing strikes may be tough, but the pathway is there for Nix to be even more efficient as a winner.

Sophomore slump prediction: Should avoid

The Jacksonville Jaguars were a mess in just about every way in 2024, including on offense, where quarterback Trevor Lawrence was both frenetic and ultimately unavailable. Still, Thomas dominated down the field, approaching 1,300 yards as a go-to weapon. Travis Hunter’s entry as the Jags’ big draft prize should only help Thomas in the long run, drawing eyes from opposing defenses. Still, with another blue-chip playmaker now at Lawrence’s disposal, and speedster Dyami Brown also added to the mix, it might be challenging for Thomas to duplicate, let alone improve, his offensive volume.

Sophomore slump prediction: Could see slight dip

Wide receivers aren’t the only ones making instant splashes at the NFL level these days. Bowers was practically automatic as Las Vegas’ No. 1 pass catcher in 2024, setting a rookie record with 112 catches on an offense otherwise plagued by quarterback shuffling. He’s still the Raiders‘ top outlet and now has a better quarterback in veteran Geno Smith; that’s a recipe for continued stardom. Still, with Pete Carroll now running the show, Ashton Jeanty added as a featured back to propel the offense and Jack Bech drafted out wide, there might finally be more mouths to feed in silver and black.

Sophomore slump prediction: Could see slight dip

Justin Herbert was often asked to protect rather than push the ball in his first year under coach Jim Harbaugh, but when the Los Angeles Chargers did air it out, McConkey delivered, quickly using his route-running prowess to become a favorite outlet. That shouldn’t really change a whole lot, given that L.A.’s top additions out wide are the aging Mike Williams and rookie Tre Harris. Sure, Harbaugh may lean into the ground game even more with both Najee Harris and Omarion Hampton in tow, but McConkey’s downfield opportunities off play action might only go up as a result.

Sophomore slump prediction: Should avoid