Tampa Bay Buccaneers, winners of four consecutive division titles, have dominated the NFC South, but it’s also wacky enough year-to-year that there’s an anything-can-happen vibe present as well.
Tampa Bay’s offensive coordinator brain drain continued in 2025 with the Jacksonville Jaguars hiring away Liam Coen to become their new head coach. However, much of the Buccaneers’ foundation remains intact with quarterback Baker Mayfield, wide receiver Mike Evans, wide receiver Chris Godwin, linebacker Lavonte David and safety Antoine Winfield Jr. still around.
The Atlanta Falcons are giving the reins to 2024 first-round quarterback Michael Penix Jr despite the presence, or lack thereof, of a disgruntled Kirk Cousins. The Carolina Panthers, with a rebuilt defense and with 2023 first overall pick Bryce Young having more weapons, offer the division’s biggest boom-or-bust option. Then there’s the New Orleans Saints, a team stuck in salary cap hell without an established quarterback following the surprising retirement of Derek Carr.
Let’s analyze every NFC South team’s over/under win total for the upcoming 2025 season and project where they’ll end up when the season kicks off this fall.
Win totals: AFC East • AFC North • AFC South • AFC West • NFC East • NFC North • NFC South • NFC West
NFL odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Over 9.5 (-110) / Under 9.5 (-110)
The Buccaneers have changed offensive coordinators in each of the past four seasons, going from Byron Leftwich (2019-2022) to Dave Canales (2023) to Liam Coen (2024) and now to Josh Grizzard (2025).
That lack of continuity hasn’t stopped the Buccaneers from winning four consecutive NFC South titles from 2021 to 2024 — a stretch that marked the last two seasons of quarterback Tom Brady‘s legendary career (2021-2022) and Mayfield’s revival into a Pro Bowl quarterback (2023-2024).
Under Coen’s guidance last season, Mayfield became the fourth player in NFL history to throw for at least 40 touchdowns (41) with a 70% completion percentage (71.4%) in a single season. He joined Drew Brees (2011), Aaron Rodgers (2020) and Joe Burrow (2024) in that elite club. Tampa Bay will maintain a sense of continuity schematically in 2025 with Grizzard being elevated from the Buccaneers’ passing game coordinator role (2024) to offensive coordinator in 2025. Adding Ohio State’s all-time receptions leader (205) in 19th overall pick wide receiver Emeka Egbuka provides injury insurance for either Evans or Godwin.
Tampa Bay also has the 10th-easiest schedule in the league based on Warren Sharp’s analysis of each NFL team’s projected 2025 win totals. There’s no reason why the Buccaneers’ high-powered offense can’t propel Tampa Bay to another 10-win campaign in 2025.
Lean: Over 9.5
Atlanta Falcons
Over 7.5 (-170) / Under 7.5 (+140)
No team has been worse at getting after opposing quarterbacks since 2019 than the Falcons. They’ve totaled 169 sacks as a defense in that span, 30 less than any other NFL team. In 2024, Atlanta’s 31 team sacks were the second-fewest in the league, which probably was a significant factor in why it allowed a third-down conversion rate of 45.3% — the second-worst in the NFL.
That’s why general manager Terry Fontenot worked to select two edge rushers in the opening round of the 2025 NFL Draft in Georgia’s Jalon Walker (15th overall) and Tennessee’s James Pearce Jr. (26th overall). Even if both aren’t superstars as rookies, their collective presence should be a considerable boost based on the production (or lack thereof) they’ve received to this point.
Offensively, former first-round wide receiver Drake London took a huge leap under new offensive coordinator Zac Robinson, hauling in the fourth-most receiving yards in the entire NFL in 2024 (1,271). He also caught more touchdowns last season (nine) than he did in his first two seasons combined (six). Second-year running back Bijan Robinson also took a leap in the new offensive system, producing the third-most rushing yards in the league (1,456) and tied for the fifth-most rushing touchdowns (14).
A full season of Penix operating as the starter with these weapons should power Atlanta to new heights since it can reintroduce the play-action pass into the offense. The Falcons had the lowest play-action pass rate in the entire league (7.6%) in 2024 in order to mask Cousins’ mobility deficiency following an Achilles tear in his mid-thirties.
Best bet: Over 7.5
Carolina Panthers
Over 6.5 (-145) / Under 6.5 (+122)
The Panthers have real hope on offense for the first time since selecting Young first overall in the 2023 NFL Draft. He returned from his midseason benching last season with much better ball security, racking up 20 total touchdowns to just eight turnovers in his final 10 games of 2024, four of which were wins.
That’s a stark contrast from his first 18 games during which he produced 12 touchdowns to 19 turnovers and only two wins. Supplementing Young’s supporting cast with former Dallas Cowboys running back Rico Dowdle, Georgia running back Trevor Etienne (2025 fourth-round pick) and wide receivers Tetairoa McMillan (eighth overall pick in 2025 NFL Draft) and Jimmy Horn (2025 sixth-round pick) should help. How much is the question.
Young became the fourth quarterback since 2000 with 10 or more total touchdowns and no turnovers in his team’s final three games of season, joining Peyton Manning (2006), Cousins (2015) and Brees (2019). However, the circumstances that led Young to land on this list leave doubt. Two of those games were overtime thrillers against two cratering teams: the eventual 8-9 Arizona Cardinals (36-30 win in Week 16) and the eventual 8-9 Falcons (44-38 win in Week 18). The other was a road game at the eventual NFC South champion Buccaneers, and Young’s Panthers lost 48-14.
Certainly, much of that had to do with the Panthers having the NFL’s worst defense in 2024, but their offense was also stuck in the mud against the only playoff team they faced in that final three-game stretch. The Panthers have gone to work beefing up that unit with additions like defensive tackles Bobby Brown III and Tershawn Wharton, edge rushers Patrick Jones II and Nic Scourton (2025 second-round pick) and safety Tre’von Moehrig.
However, it remains to be seen if Young can be consistently steady enough to make Carolina’s front office’s efforts truly impactful.
| Panthers defense (2024 season) | NFL rank | |
|---|---|---|
PPG allowed | 31.4 | Last |
Total YPG | 404.5 | Last |
Yards/Play allowed | 6.0 | Last |
Rush YPG allowed | 179.8* | Last |
* Worst by team since 1987 Atlanta Falcons
Lean: Under 6.5
New Orleans Saints
Over 5.5 (+130) / Under 5.5 (-155)
The Saints were blindsided by Carr’s offseason retirement that was caused by a lingering shoulder injury. The Saints went 0-7 in the games Carr missed because of injury in 2024 with Spencer Rattler (0-6) and Jake Haener (0-1), and New Orleans has the same quarterback room it had last season with the exception of 2025 second-round pick Tyler Shough.
Shough struggled with injuries in college, which is why the 25-year-old started just 32 games in seven seasons. Given the Saints’ perpetual state of salary cap hell, the only notable offensive additions New Orleans has made this offseason is signing soon-to-be 32-year-old Brandin Cooks and drafting Texas All-American offensive tackle Kelvin Banks Jr. ninth overall. The Saints are going to struggle again in 2025.
Best bet: Under 5.5
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Author: Garrett Podell
May 29, 2025 | 10:30 am
