NFL win totals predictions: Will these first-year coaches meet, exceed or fall short of expectations?

We are less than 100 days from the regular season kicking off in the NFL and, like the weather as we barrel toward summer, things are starting to heat up. Offseason workouts are in full swing with OTAs underway, mandatory minicamp looming, and training camp on the horizon. While every team will enter the 2025 campaign with a clean slate, it’s especially true for the seven organizations that hired new coaches. They each find themselves in a fascinating position. 

Given that their clubs needed to fire or part ways with their previous leader, they come to town looking to rebuild and get their franchise back on track instead of carrying momentum from last season. While that’s a more daunting task than what the other coaches in the league are dealing with, it’s possible they can find success as soon as Year 1. For instance, Dan Quinn took the Washington Commanders to the NFC Championship in his first season with the franchise. Of course, that was aided by the arrival of quarterback Jayden Daniels, but that’s sort of the point we’re going to illustrate here. 

When factoring in the roster, the schedule, and all the other layers that will make up the 2025 season, we’re going to determine which of these first-year coaches are set up for success. To gauge that, we’ll use their team’s projected regular-season win total and decide if they’ll meet those expectations, exceed them, or fall short. 

NFL odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.

Projected 2025 win total: 8.5 (Over -110, Under -110)
Verdict: Meet expectations

Ben Johnson was belle of the ball this hiring cycle, and the former Lions offensive coordinator decided to stay in the NFC North and lead the Chicago Bears. His arrival was paired with a stellar offseason by Chicago, headlined by a total revamp of the offensive line. With protection up front and Johnson in his ear, 2024 No. 1 overall pick Caleb Williams. The talent is there for Johnson to have success right out of the gate, but the road in 2025 is difficult. 

In terms of their opponents’ projected win total, the Bears have the seventh-toughest schedule in the league this season. That’s, in part, due to the division being a gauntlet as their three rivals each made the postseason in 2024. With that in mind, the oddsmakers have Chicago at even odds to go over or under their 8.5 win total and are +160 to make the playoffs, lowest in the NFC North. That tells us that the expectation for this team in 2025 is to be around .500 and possibly contend for a wild-card spot, which I believe they will.

Mike Vrabel

Projected 2025 win total: 8.5 (Over -120, Under +100)
Verdict: Exceed expectations

New England pulled the plug on the Jerod Mayo era after just one season and brought in another former player to lead the franchise. Unlike Mayo, Mike Vrabel does come to Foxborough with previous coaching experience and even won Coach of the Year back in 2021 with the Tennessee Titans. His presence should raise the floor for the organization, and the oddsmakers back that up. 

After a 4-13 season in 2024, New England is favored to get to nine wins in 2025, more than doubling their total from the previous year. However, they are +120 to make the playoffs, which are the eighth-highest odds among AFC teams. These odds suggest that the Patriots will be an above .500 team and be in playoff contention, but will fall just short. I think they exceed that. 

The Patriots had the benefit of not needing to search for a quarterback with 2024 first-rounder Drake Maye already established. That freed the organization up to address other needs on the roster this offseason, adding the likes of Milton Williams, Carlton Davis, Robert Spillane and Morgan Moses in free agency. Meanwhile, they added some much-needed talent at left tackle with the selection of LSU’s Will Campbell in the NFL Draft. When you mix that injection of new talent, a first-round quarterback entering Year 2, and a more experienced coaching staff with the second-easiest schedule in the NFL for 2025, New England could eye double-digit wins and secure a playoff berth. 

Brian Schottenheimer

Projected 2025 win total: 7.5 (Over -160, Under +135)
Verdict: Falls short of expectations

Jerry Jones decided against giving Mike McCarthy a new contract and elevated offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer to the big seat as the Cowboys‘ newest coach. On top of Schottenheimer’s promotion, Dallas added wideout George Pickens to play opposite CeeDee Lamb and drafted Tyler Booker in the first round to help solidify the offensive line. Of course, they’ll also get Dak Prescott back healthy after he was limited to eight games last year due to injury. However, there are still questions looming over Schottenheimer’s club. For example, the backfield is still uninspiring, and Micah Parsons‘ contract status is still unresolved, so there is still work to be done on the personnel side. 

The odds have Dallas favored to go over their 7.5 win total, but are +190 to make the playoffs, which are the fourth-lowest in the NFC. That’s due to a tremendously difficult schedule. It ranks as the 11th toughest schedule in the league, but that ranking doesn’t do it justice. Beginning in Week 12, Dallas will face six-straight teams that won 11-plus games last season. Within that, there’s a mini-run of four-straight opponents who won 14-plus games. They may not be favored in a single one of those six contests, which means there is zero margin for error in the first half of the year. That’s a lot to put on the plate of not only a first-year coach, but a first-time coach in Schottenheimer. This feels like a 7-10 team, which means they’d fall short of their expectation of hitting eight wins. 

Liam Coen

Projected 2025 win total: 7.5 (Over -125, Under +105)
Verdict: Meet expectations

Liam Coen has no shortage of weapons at his disposal within the Jaguars offense as the former Buccaneers OC begins his coaching tenure in Jacksonville. This offseason, the club made a massive splash by trading up to the No. 2 overall pick in the NFL Draft to bring aboard receiver/corner combo Travis Hunter. Meanwhile, they have ascending second-year wideout Brian Thomas Jr. and added to the offensive line with guard Patrick Mekari and center Robert Hainsey. All that said, the key for Coen’s success in Year 1 — and overall — will be unlocking Trevor Lawrence. Not only does the former No. 1 overall pick need to stay healthy, he needs to make better decisions with the football, which Coen should be able to help with. 

The Jaguars are favored to get to at least eight wins in 2025, which seems very doable. Jacksonville has the sixth-easiest schedule in the NFL next season and plays in a division that features two teams — Tennessee and Indianapolis — that are projected to finish at the bottom of the league once again, further inflating their win total. Their odds to make the playoffs are at +155, which feels accurate. The current baseline goal for Coen is to be above eight wins and possibly flirt with the “in the hunt” graphic this fall. They hit that on the mark. 

Projected 2025 win total: 6.5 (Over +160, Under -190)
Verdict: Meet expectations

Of all the coaches hired this offseason, Kellen Moore has the toughest rebuild by far. The Saints find themselves in a quarterback conundrum in the aftermath of Derek Carr’s retirement, and could lean on second-rounder Tyler Shough to lead them through 2025. That alone lowers the ceiling for New Orleans, but it wasn’t that high to begin with. Despite having the third-easiest schedule in the NFL based on opponent projected win total, the Saints are favored to go under their 6.5 win total and are -900 to miss the playoffs (second-highest in the NFC). So, the expectation for New Orleans is to rival for the worst record in the NFL and possibly own the No. 1 overall pick in 2025. If we’re judging Moore by that bar, he’ll meet it, as he currently doesn’t have enough talent on the roster to pull off any sort of Cinderella run. 

Pete Carroll

Projected 2025 win total: 6.5 (Over -145, Under +120)
Verdict: Falls short of expectations

There’s optimism in Sin City. The Las Vegas Raiders spent the offseason improving their overall structure, hiring Pete Carroll as coach, trading for veteran quarterback Geno Smith, and adding weapons like running back Ashton Jeanty and receiver Jack Bech in the NFL Draft. That should result in a more competitive Raiders team in 2025, but they are still a work in progress. Their win total is 6.5 (favored to go over), and they are -425 to miss the playoffs (fourth-highest in the NFC). Those odds don’t exactly reflect their aggressiveness from this offseason, so it does seem like those moves may come in vain. In terms of strength of schedule, Las Vegas is in the middle of the pack, but they do play in a division where all three of their rivals reached the postseason in 2024. Moreover, all of those AFC West teams got better throughout the offseason, which is a theme for their overall schedule. There’s a possibility that Carroll’s club falls under its win total in 2025. 

Aaron Glenn

Projected 2025 win total: 5.5 (Over -160, Under +135)
Verdict: Exceed expectations

Ben Johnson may have captured most of the headlines for his departure from Detroit, but don’t sleep on the “other” Lions coordinator. Aaron Glenn has plenty to work with in New York, especially on the defensive side of the ball. The Jets were tied with the Denver Broncos for the second-lowest yards per play allowed (5.0) last season, only looking up to the Super Bowl champion Philadelphia Eagles. Given that defense is his background of expertise, Glenn should get the most out of the likes of Sauce Gardner and Quinnen Williams, along with pass rusher Will McDonald IV and Jermaine Johnson II. That’ll make life easier for the offense, which will be led by Justin Fields, who signed with the organization in free agency. 

Glenn’s Jets are favored to go over six wins in 2025, which feels correct. While being in the playoff conversation is still a season or two away, I think New York will be a sneaky competitive club in 2025. Glenn’s prowess on defense should, in theory, help the Jets keep games low-scoring and give Fields — coupled with skill-position players like Garrett Wilson and Breece Hall — the high floor of simply needing to grind out games offensively. It wouldn’t shock me if the Jets win a game or two more than this total suggests.