Jonnu Smith was traded to the Steelers on Monday in a multi-player deal that included two late-round pick swaps, Jalen Ramsey heading to Pittsburgh, and Mikah Fitzpatrick headed to the Miami Dolphins. Smith was one of the surprise breakout stories of the 2024 Fantasy Football season. As the Miami Dolphins watched the infrastructure of their offensive pass protection collapse, plus accounted for trying to keep their quarterback upright, they transferred the bulk of their offensive production to the run game and the quick-hitting pass game — via Smith. This all happened in the second half of the 2024 season. Ultimately, Smith turned in a dominant second half of 2024 and averaged a ridiculous 18.6 PPR points in the last eight games of the season.
Smith hadn’t topped 582 receiving yards in a single season prior to his 2024 breakout. Now he rejoins Arthur Smith, current offensive play caller for the Steelers, and a coach whom he spent time playing for both in Atlanta and Tennessee. However, that might not be such a good thing.
In his three seasons with Smith, Smith’s stat line looked like this:
2019 TEN: 43 targets, 35 receptions, 439 receiving yards, 3 receiving TDs (6.5 Fantasy Points per game *in Standard scoring)
2020 TEN: 65 targets, 41 receptions, 448 receiving yards, 8 receiving TDs (9.3 Fantasy Points per game)
2023 ATL: 70 targets, 50 receptions 582 receiving yards, 3 receiving touchdowns (7.3 Fantasy points per game)
It’s hard to imagine Smith’s target volume reaching anywhere near where it was during the second half of the 2024 season. The Steelers are a run-heavy offense, they just traded for D.K. Metcalf, and they also have tight ends Pat Freiermuth and Darnell Washington returning. Both Freiermuth and Washington have key roles in the offense — Washington stays on the field to serve as almost a sixth offensive lineman at times, and Freiermuth is a short-intermediate threat in the receiving game.
To put Smith’s absurd second half of 2024 into perspective, according to Fantasy Points data suite, Smith finished in the top-15 overall — among ALL football players — in designed targets. The Dolphins designed plays specifically to get the ball to Smith in the screen game and the quick passing game. If that doesn’t continue with the Steelers, Smith could see his Fantasy value plummet from a borderline top-6 tight end to someone we are looking at as a back-end tight end we only stream in good matchups.
Ultimately, Smith becomes worth drafting as a back-end TE1 in the double-digit rounds now that he has joined the Steelers.
On the flip side, this might mean a shot of life for Dolphins wide receivers Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. In Waddle’s case, after a disappointing 2024 season, he could play a big role in taking over the short and intermediate pass game. Waddle fell out of touch in 2024 and didn’t even finish as a top-50 WR on a per-game basis. Can that change in 2025 with Smith out of the mix?
Adam Aizer sees the vision: “When Waddle broke out as WR8 in 2022, he led all wide receivers in yards per catch and yards per target. He hasn’t been able to reach those efficiency levels in two years since, and his target per route run rate declined sharply to a lousy 17.4% in 2024. Remember, the Dolphins didn’t have De’Von Achane or Smith in 2022. Waddle at times felt like the odd man out in 2024. Now, Smith is out of the mix again. While Achane will maintain a target share, there are a lot of vacated targets to go around from the loss of Smith.
The good news is that Waddle is still an electric talent who has been a top-24 wide receiver per game in three of his first four NFL seasons. All it will take is either more targets or more big plays downfield for Waddle to outperform his ADP. He’s worth the risk with a mid-round pick.
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Author: Dan Schneier
June 30, 2025 | 1:20 pm
