When it comes to drafting 49ers running back Christian McCaffrey in 2025 Fantasy Football leagues, you’ll find a lot of skepticism. Too many Fantasy Football managers have been burned by McCaffrey, as recently as the 2024 season when some took him as early as No. 1 overall. Now, one year older, with another injury under his belt, some managers have decided to cross him off their draft board without any exception. However, by doing so, you are limiting your team’s upside and throwing away the possibility of drafting one of the very few players available who can (and has) decided Fantasy leagues (as recently as the 2023 season).
On a recent episode of Fantasy Football Today, host Adam Aizer broke down the boom case for McCaffrey and went as far as to say he would be comfortable drafting him No. 3 overall in PPR leagues. I agree with Adam, and the trade of Deebo Samuel could lead to an increased target share and reception total for McCaffrey in 2025. The upside case is easy to see.
In his three healthy games last season, McCaffrey had 43 of the 49ers’ 50 RB carries. That’s an 86% carry share, which is almost unheard of by today’s NFL standards. That kind of volume is what drives Fantasy Football success. And this is the kind of volume that few coaches trust their backs with. Kyle Shanahan has trusted McCaffrey with this kind of workload since they were paired in San Francisco, and that is unlikely to change because McCaffrey gives them a schematic advantage. When he is on the field, McCaffrey changes what kind of personnel the opposing defense can play and often what they can call (man or zone) due to his ability as a route runner and receiver.
Prior to last season, McCaffrey was the No. 1 RB and player in all formats in 2023 with these numbers: 272 carries, 1,459 yards, 14 touchdowns to go along with 67 receptions, 564 receiving yards, and seven touchdowns in 16 games. He averaged 5.4 ypc. He was the RB4 overall and RB2 overall in PPR leagues during the 2022 season before that.
Dave Richard sees more of the downside case for McCaffrey. Here’s what he wrote of the veteran back in his draft outlook: “McCaffrey might be 29 years old and coming off a horrible injury-plagued year, but that will not keep some Fantasy managers from taking him with a top-15 overall pick (if not in the top 10). It’s because McCaffrey’s proven potential is right up there with literally anyone else in Fantasy. In 2023, he played 16 games and averaged 24.5 PPR points; in 2022, he played 17 games and averaged 21.1 PPR points; and his results even in partial years like 2021 and 2022 were still strong. Maybe the 49ers will consider dialing back his playing time this year, but not to the point where he won’t average 17-plus touches per game. Risk-averse Fantasy managers won’t have a problem passing up McCaffrey, citing his age and availability, and risk-ignorant Fantasy managers will gravitate toward him. If you’re in-between, you could opt to safeguard by pairing him with expected 49ers backup RB Isaac Guerendo with a pick starting in Round 8.”
The downside case for McCaffrey is clear — and it’s based on his age and injury history. But that’s not all. McCaffrey has had three seasons in which he has been on pace for 119 or more catches, but he was only on pace for 85 catches in 2022, 71 catches in 2023, and 74 catches in three healthy games in 2024. Maybe those days as a 100-catch back are done, but with the loss of Samuel, plus Brandon Aiyuk recovering from a major injury, someone has to take on that receiving work.
Is Age 29 too old to invest major Fantasy capital in a RB?
Well, that certainly wasn’t the case last season. Before 2024, it looked like it was. Then Derrick Henry, Aaron Jones, and James Conner had good to great seasons at age 29 or older. Jones has had 1,177 carries and 272 catches entering his age-29 season. James Conner had 1,125 carries and 234 catches entering his age-29 season. That’s a lot fewer carries than anyone on this list except David Johnson and Austin Ekeler (990 carries and 440 catches).
Age 29 looked a lot more worrisome before Henry (who actually averaged 4.2-4.4 ypc in his last three seasons with the Titans) bounced back with a huge season (5.9 ypc) at age 30 in Baltimore and before Aaron Jones was the #16/#12 RB in Fantasy (#19/#19 per game) while averaging 4.5 ypc which was a career low (barely). Jones had his workload limited (255 carries and 51 catches in 17 games, and I think he left 1 game early) while Henry did not.
In summation, McCaffrey carries risk but also the reward of a 60+ reception back on what should be one of the highest-scoring offenses. You won’t find potential RB1 overall players where McCaffrey is coming off draft boards.
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Author: Dan Schneier
July 1, 2025 | 1:45 pm
