Winning the AFC South: Can Jaguars, Colts or Titans prevent Texans three-peat? Reasons each could soar to top

What do Hall of Fame quarterback Dan Marino and Houston Texans Pro Bowl quarterback C.J. Stroud have in common? They are the only two quarterbacks to win their respective divisions in each of their first two NFL seasons, minimum 250 pass attempts, according to CBS Sports Research.

Since Stroud and Texans coach DeMeco Ryans arrived in Houston, they have experienced immediate success. They’re one of just three quarterback-coach duos to win at least one playoff game in each of their first two seasons (2023-2024) in NFL history, joining the Baltimore Ravens duo of Joe Flacco and John Harbaugh (2008-2009) and the New York Jets duo of Mark Sanchez and Rex Ryan (2009-2010). 

However, Stroud and the Texans are somewhat vulnerable after back-to-back 10-7 seasons. Stroud was sacked 52 times and hit 109 times in 2024, both of which were the second-highest such figures in the league. Both of those are significant increases from his rookie year in which he was only sacked 38 times and hit 74 times. 

That’s why Houston fired offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik and replaced him with Los Angeles Rams tight ends coach/pass game coordinator Nick Caley. The slippage in pass protection also led the Texans to completely reshuffle their offensive line as well this offseason. Their multiple replacements can be fairly viewed as lateral moves or downgrades, as is the case at left tackle where Houston went from five-time Pro Bowler Laremy Tunsil to Cam Robinson. Robinson allowed six more sacks (eight) than Tunsil (two) last season while suiting up for both the Jacksonville Jaguars and Minnesota Vikings.

The Indianapolis Colts (8-9 in 2024) have been nipping at the Texans’ heels the last two seasons, finishing second in the AFC South in both 2023 and 2024. They’ve got the playmakers on offense between former NFL rushing champion running back Jonathan Taylor and pass catchers like Michael Pittman Jr.,  Alec Pierce (the 2024 NFL yards per reception leader) and 2025 first-round pick tight end Tyler Warren. They just need stability out of their quarterback position.  Anthony Richardson has been the NFL’s most rollercoaster passer, leading the league in yards per completion (14.4) while ranking dead last in completion percentage (47.4%) last season. He’s also only played in 15 of 34 possible games in his career. That’s why New York Giants castoff Daniel Jones was a priority for the Colts in free agency. 

The Jacksonville Jaguars (4-13 in 2024) were the last non-Texans team to win the AFC South in 2022, quarterback Trevor Lawrence’s last fully healthy season. Across the past two years, he’s dealt with a laundry list of injuries. Improved health for Lawrence in tandem with new coach Liam Coen coming over from the Tampa Bay Buccaneers could get Jacksonville’s offense back on track. 

Trevor Lawrence injuries since 2023

• Week 6, 2023 (Knee sprain)
• Week 13, 2023 (High ankle sprain)
• Week 15, 2023 (Concussion)
• Week 16, 2023 (AC joint sprain)
• Week 9, 2024 (Severe AC joint sprain)
• Week 13, 2024 (Concussion)

Perhaps the Tennessee Titans (3-14 in 2024) could follow the Washington Commanders‘ playbook of going from being a bottom feeder to a contender thanks to a top-two pick quarterback after selecting Miami quarterback Cam Ward, the 2024 Davey O’Brien award winner (best QB in college football), first overall in the 2025 NFL Draft. 

Let’s take a look at the odds and reasons that each of the AFC South’s four squads could take home the division title in 2025. 

All NFL odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.

Houston Texans

Division title odds: +110 ($10 to win $11)

Despite the tumult along the offensive line, there are plenty of reasons why the Texans could win the AFC South for a third year in a row. Stroud, who has thrown for the sixth-most passing yards (7,835) in a player’s first two seasons in NFL history, returns as does top target Nico Collins, who ranked fourth in the entire league in receiving yards per game (83.8) last season. 

Defensively, Houston wrecked havoc on opposing quarterbacks last season thanks to a ferocious pass rush and talented playmakers in the secondary. The Texans defense allowed the lowest completion percentage (58.8%) while hauling in the second-most interceptions (19) of any defense in the NFL in 2024. It certainly helps that Pro Bowl edge rushers Danielle Hunter (12.0 sacks in 2024) and Will Anderson Jr. (11.0 sacks in 2024) combined for the third-most sacks (23.0) of any teammate duo in the league last season. That production up front allowed Texans cornerbacks Derek Stingley Jr. (42.7% completion percentage allowed) and Kamari Lassiter (44.6% completion percentage allowed) to rank first and second, minimum 50 targets, in the NFL in completion percentage allowed. Stingley also led the NFL in defensive passer rating allowed (38.0, minimum 50 targets). 

Returning pillars of stability at quarterback, wide receiver, edge rusher, cornerback and coach could easily be enough for the AFC South crown to reside in Houston once again in 2025.

Jacksonville Jaguars

Division title odds: +300 ($10 to win $30)  

Aforementioned injuries have dimmed Lawrence’s star power the last two years. He’s now in a somewhat similar spot to Baker Mayfield from a few years ago, another former first overall pick who needed a bounce-back season. Mayfield also produced the best season of his career under then-OC Coen in Tampa Bay in 2024.

* Career high

Should Lawrence stay healthy, he should be able to thrive in 2025. Wide receiver Brian Thomas Jr., the team’s 2024 first-round pick, had one of the best rookie seasons of all time: he became the fourth rookie since the 1970 AFL/NFL merger with 1,200 or more receiving yards (1,282) and 10 or more receiving touchdowns (10). The other three in this exclusive club happen to be 2025 triple crown winner Ja’Marr Chase (2021), Hall of Famer Randy Moss (1998) and 2014 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Odell Beckham Jr. He and 2025 second overall pick Travis Hunter, the 2024 Heisman Trophy winner, could be Coen’s new Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. An offense with that passing potential could overcome a defense that struggled a season ago. 

Indianapolis Colts

Division title odds: +310 ($10 to win $31)  

The Colts could make a run at the division title by simply riding Taylor and a much-improved defense. 

General manager Chris Ballard beefed up Indianapolis’ secondary with the free agency additions of cornerback Charvarius Ward (ninth-lowest completion percentage allowed (53%) across the last three seasons) and safety Camryn Bynum (one of four players with 300 or more tackles and seven or more interceptions across the last three season). The hire of longtime Cincinnati Bengals defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo, who oversaw solid Bengals defenses that helped Cincinnati make deep playoff runs for much of his tenure, should pay dividends. Simply getting turnover-free, consistent play from either Richardson or Jones could be enough for the Colts to break through from second to first in 2025. 

Tennessee Titans

Division title odds: +750 ($10 to win $75)  

The Tennessee Titans are a long shot, but there’s a potential path for Ward to be the Titans’ version of Jayden Daniels. Ward is fresh off leading the college football with 39 passing touchdowns in 2024, and he’s being plugged into an offense much more suited to support its starting quarterback in 2025 than it was in 2024. 

Tennessee overhauled its offensive line with the signings of Pittsburgh Steelers offensive tackle Dan Moore Jr. (four years, $82 million, $50 million guaranteed) and Detroit Lions Pro Bowl guard Kevin Zeitler (one year, $9 million), which will also allow for 2024 first-round pick JC Latham to return to his collegiate position of right tackle. Factoring in an improved pass protection unit with running back Tony Pollard (one of three players with 1,000 or more rushing yards in each of the last three seasons), steady top target Calvin Ridley and Seattle Seahawks great Tyler Lockett, it’s clear to see Ward has a decent supporting cast for his rookie year. 

If Titans top cornerback L’Jarius Sneed can stay healthy, perhaps Ward and the offense can shock the world and lead Tennessee to its first AFC South title since 2021. 

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Author: Garrett Podell
July 9, 2025 | 10:10 am