It’s now been five years since longtime New Orleans Saints quarterback Drew Brees last suited up, and the quarterback situation for the franchise hasn’t been more dire. After cycling through Jameis Winston, Andy Dalton and Derek Carr, who himself retired this offseason, the Saints are now set to start one of Spencer Rattler, Jake Haener and Tyler Shough. The first two names on that list combined to go 0-7 for the team last year, while the latter was taken in the second round of this year’s draft but is nonetheless already turning 26 in September and joins the league four years after Trevor Lawrence, who was in his same recruiting class.
Whoever starts for the Saints at quarterback, he’ll be on an offense featuring a 30-year-old Alvin Kamara and a set of pass catchers whose yardage leader went for a resounding 548 yards. The silver lining is that Carr had the lowest sack percentage in the league, getting taken down eight times in his 10 starts, so the offensive line could be the strength of the unit, especially after adding left tackle Kelvin Banks in the top 10 of the draft. Even with a quality offensive line, turning this into a successful offense should be the biggest challenge yet for new head coach Kellen Moore, who has finished with a top-seven scoring offense in four of his six seasons as offensive coordinator.
While this is the type of situation in which you would expect a franchise to go as young as possible to develop the future core of the team, the Saints brought another familiar face back in at receiver in Brandin Cooks, the Saints’ first-round pick all the way back in 2014. Combined with Kamara (2017 third-round pick) and defensive end Cameron Jordan (2011 first-round pick), the Saints have one foot still firmly entrenched in the past, an uphill battle to compete in the present, and questions surrounding the future of the franchise at the most important position in football.
We’re going to take a quick look at the Saints’ 2024 season and the rest of their offseason moves before getting into their track record in NFL futures over the last five years. After that, you can find the odds available at top sportsbooks for their 2025 win total along with Super Bowl and playoff odds as well as key player props to know. Finally, we’ll take a look at the pros and cons of betting on the Saints in 2025 and give out our best bets.
2024 New Orleans Saints season review
- Regular season: 5-12 (Last, NFC South)
- Playoffs: Missed
- Most losses (12) in a season since going 3-13 in 2005 (season before hiring Sean Payton)
- Fired head coach Dennis Allen after Week 9 following Saints’ longest losing streak since 1999 (7)
- First team in NFL history to lose seven straight games after winning first two games by 20+ points
- Snapped streak of 18 consecutive seasons with 7+ wins (fourth-longest all-time)
2025 New Orleans Saints offseason review
| QB | Derek Carr, Ben DiNucci | Tyler Shough (2) | |
| RB | Jamaal Williams | Cam Akers, Velus Jones | Devin Neal (6) |
| WR | Marquez Valdes-Scantling | Brandin Cooks, Donovan Peoples-Jones | |
| TE | Jack Stoll, Seth Green | Moliki Matavao (7) | |
| OL | Ryan Ramczyk, Lucas Patrick, Shane Lemieux, Oli Udoh, Justin Herron | Dillon Radunz, Will Clapp, Barry Wesley | Kelvin Banks (1) |
| DL | Davon Godchaux | Vernon Broughton (3) | |
| EDGE | Payton Turner, Tanoh Kpassagnon | Jonah Williams, Chris Rumph | Fadil Diggs (7) |
| LB | Wille Gay | Danny Stutsman (4) | |
| CB | Paulson Adebo, Shemar Jean-Charles | Isaac Yiadom, Jayden Price | Quincy Riley (4) |
| S | Will Harris | Justin Reid, Terrell Burgess | Jonas Sanker (3) |
| STAFF | Darren Rizzi (HC), Klint Kubiak (OC), Joe Woods (DC) | Kellen Moore (HC), Doug Nussmeier (OC), Brandon Staley (DC) |
Five-year futures odds and trends
| 2024 | +10000 | 7.5 | Under | 5 | 4th, NFC South |
| 2023 | +3500 | 9.5 | Under | 9 | 2nd, NFC South |
| 2022 | +3800 | 8.5 | Under | 7 | 3rd, NFC South |
| 2021 | +4000 | 9 | Push | 9 | 2nd, NFC South |
| 2020 | +1000 | 10.5 | Over | 12 | L, Divisional round |
Historical betting data via Pro-Football-Reference.
2025 New Orleans Saints futures odds
| Go Over win total | 5.5 (+120) | 5.5 (+122) | 5.5 (+100) | 5.5 (+125) |
| Go Under win total | 5.5 (-145) | 5.5 (-145) | 5.5 (-120) | 5.5 (-145) |
| Win Super Bowl | +30000 | +30000 | +35000 | +40000 |
| Win NFC | +15000 | +15000 | +14000 | +15000 |
| Win NFC South | +1100 | +1600 | +1400 | +1100 |
| Make playoffs | +550 | +550 | +800 | +730 |
| Miss playoffs | -800 | -900 | -1400 | -1300 |
| Win No. 1 seed | +20000 | +12500 | +20000 | +19000 |
Odds subject to change.
2025 Alvin Kamara props
| MVP | +50000 | +50000 | +30000 | +50000 |
| Offensive POY | +15000 | +12500 | +15000 | +15000 |
| Most rush yards | +6000 | +8000 | +12000 | |
| Rush yards O/U | 725.5 | 750.5 | ||
| Rush TDs O/U | 4.5 |
Odds subject to change.
Reasons to back the Saints
Expectations are as low as can be, with the Saints among the favorites to have the fewest wins or worst record at sportsbooks where those props are available. While that’s not a reason to play on them in most futures, a win total of 5.5 certainly seems attainable in a division with two other teams that also had a negative point differential last year. The Saints have one of the easiest projected schedules in the league, though an opening stretch facing the Cardinals, Seahawks, 49ers and Bills certainly puts an 0-4 start as a likely outcome. After that, they’ll have a lot of winnable matchups over the rest of the year, along with facing the Bucs twice and the Rams once.
Aside from at quarterback, the Saints offense might be better than people realize, with a stable of interesting running backs, a good No. 1 receiver in Chris Olave an underrated weapon at tight end in Juwan Johnson, two recent first-round picks at tackle and Erik McCoy back to full health at center. If Tyler Shough is better than expected, and at his advanced age he could in theory face a smoother learning curve in his transition to the NFL, the Saints offense could be closer to league average than the basement, which is where most observers would put them heading into the year.
Reasons to fade the Saints
A defense that had been a key strength in the post-Drew Brees era started to slip last season, and with no more Marshon Lattimore and Paulson Adebo in the secondary plus Cameron Jordan starting to show his age last year, it’s possible the defensive unit finishes near the bottom of the league in scoring after giving up the third-most yards in the NFL last year. Jordan and linebacker Demario Davis are 36, while safety Tyrann Mathieu is 33, and with those veterans on the backside of their careers and none of the team’s recent draft picks establishing themselves as stars, it’s hard to see where the impact performances will come from.
There are also questions about whether the coaching staff can maximize the talent on the team to provide the best potential outcome. Kellen Moore is only 36 despite seeming like a head-coach-in-waiting for several years, while Doug Nussmeier is getting his first chance at an NFL offensive coordinator role after a long career as a college OC and then bouncing around from Dallas to L.A. to Philadelphia as Moore’s QB coach. Brandon Staley was brought in to run the defense after a disappointing stint as Chargers head coach that included having Moore under him for one season, creating a weird dynamic now that his former OC is now in a position of leadership.
How to bet the Saints in 2025
- Over 5.5 wins +125 (FanDuel)
- Tyler Shough Over 2175.5 passing yards -115 (Caesars)
The Saints’ schedule is just too easy after the first month of the season for me to pay a heavy amount of juice to take their Under. If you think the team is truly terrible and the schedule won’t matter, I think the play is either to take them to have the fewest number of wins or at least to play an alt number like Under 4.5 wins. On the flip side, I like playing Over 1.5 divisional wins even at -160 considering the state of the rest of the NFC South, but I’m also willing to consider the traditional Over at +125 or better with a home slate of opponents that includes the Cardinals, 49ers, Giants, Patriots, Buccaneers, Falcons, Panthers and Jets, plus road matchups with the Titans and Dolphins along with their divisional opponents.
Caesars has a passing yards line for Shough that I think is going to be attainable whether or not he’s the Week 1 starter, for which he’s a -310 favorite at FanDuel. That opening slate of opponents is going to make it tough for Spencer Rattler to have early success if he wins the job, so I could see the team turning to Shough relatively quickly and still giving him 11-12 starts if he’s not under center to start the year. If he is the starter in Week 1, I don’t see much reason to go back to Rattler after what he showed last year.
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Author: R.J. White
July 16, 2025 | 8:46 am
