It’s J.J. McCarthy time for the Vikings: What Kevin O’Connell’s QB track record tells us about what to expect

EAGAN, Minn. — There are some, but not many, lingering questions about Minnesota Vikings head coach Kevin O’Connell. For one, can the reigning NFL Coach of the Year translate repeated regular-season success into his first career playoff victory? One thing that can’t be disputed, however, is the fact the beloved Midwestern leader maximizes every quarterback under his watch.

Or can it? We know off hand that both Sam Darnold and Kirk Cousins are two veterans to recently enjoy career-best production under O’Connell’s direction. But if the fate of the 2025 Vikings will truly be determined by the development of new starter J.J. McCarthy, a 22-year-old with zero NFL experience, it only seems appropriate to investigate “KOC” as “quarterback-proof.”

How, exactly, have O’Connell’s quarterbacks fared not only in Minnesota, but since he first assumed a coordinator-level job in the NFL? We reviewed each of his Week 1 starters from the last seven seasons, dating back to his stint as a quarterbacks coach and passing game coordinator with Washington, to assess the performances.

Week 1 starting QBs under Kevin O’Connell

This list isn’t exhaustive of O’Connell’s quarterbacks; note that in three of the seven listed seasons, the coach’s Week 1 starter appeared in no more than 10 games due to injury or demotion: Smith in 2018, Keenum in 2019 and Cousins in 2023. Those seasons each went differently, but mostly they went sideways, with O’Connell briefly helping Cousins’ replacement, Joshua Dobbs, catch fire in 2023 before a four-game losing streak to close the year.

Even factoring in those lost seasons, O’Connell helped his Week 1 quarterbacks compile a combined record of 59-33 during this seven-year span. That was good enough for four different playoff appearances, or 57% of the time he served as a passing game coordinator, offensive coordinator or head coach.

Does this alone ensure the Vikings are bound to be back in the dance with McCarthy in 2025? Absolutely not. Coaches and quarterbacks are often only as sturdy as their supporting casts. This is a team sport.

That said, there are a few reasons for optimism in Minnesota:

No. 1, the Vikings’ current supporting cast is about as good as they come. This is an organization that just won 14 games and flirted with the NFC’s top playoff seed despite betting on a journeyman in Darnold and opening 2024 without key playmakers like Jordan Addison and T.J. Hockenson. Across the board, they remain supremely gifted at the skill spots, namely with Justin Jefferson out wide, but also on defense, where coordinator Brian Flores deploys endlessly exotic looks.

No. 2, the combined record of O’Connell’s past quarterbacks isn’t the only factor here. We need also to consider their individual performances. And by and large, it’s true that KOC has had some hand in at least four different quarterbacks enjoying either the best football of their respective careers, or at least a general exceeding of expectations:

• Alex Smith was even better in his final season with the Kansas City Chiefs, but he controlled the ball to help Washington off to a surprising 5-2 start in 2018. A potential playoff bid was spoiled when he suffered a catastrophic leg injury in November.
• Case Keenum was also better in his previous stop, serving as an improbable hero for the Vikings in 2017, but started hot under O’Connell as a stopgap — five scores, zero picks in two shootouts — before first-round pick Dwayne Haskins took over.
• Matthew Stafford instantly vaulted into the MVP conversation and finished with a bang in his Rams debut, during which O’Connell served as Sean McVay’s second-hand man, hoisting the Lombardi Trophy in 2021.
• Kirk Cousins seemed to discover something of a clutch gene in a 13-win debut under O’Connell in Minnesota, then opened on an MVP pace despite iffy protection up front the following season, only to suffer an Achilles tear in 2023.
• Sam Darnold was very skittish to seal the Vikings’ 2024 finish, but he was an MVP-level gunslinger with career-best composure for at least three-quarters of his first run in Minnesota, parlaying his start into a lucrative deal with the Seattle Seahawks.

In every scenario here, O’Connell leaned into the strengths of the arms at his disposal. He wasn’t afraid, for example, to let Stafford showcase his passing zip, even if it meant throwing into trouble on occasion. Ditto for Darnold, who often displayed a previously unseen resilience, even after forcing a ball. For Cousins, it was more about cranking up the play-action and pre-snap motions, slowing down the pass rush and letting the veteran own a pass-oriented attack.

The only real exception to the notion that “O’Connell equals quarterback increase” is Goff, who all but wore out his welcome in Los Angeles with his 2020 campaign, which is what directly prompted the Rams to acquire Stafford in the first place. It should be noted, however, that McVay has served as the Rams’ primary play-caller since becoming L.A.’s coach in 2020, and it was he and Goff whose relationship reportedly soured by the time Stafford arrived as the super-armed hero.

The final, most unpredictable factor: None of these quarterbacks who opened a season under O’Connell was making his first career start in the NFL. McCarthy has the benefit of spending the entire 2024 offseason watching and learning, even logging some promising preseason reps before a knee surgery sidelined him for all of his rookie campaign. He can count on O’Connell catering calls and offensive strategies to his style, which might well be more conservative than the live-armed Darnold; remember that Minnesota also added Jordan Mason as an Aaron Jones sidekick this offseason to beef up the ground-game support.

J.J. McCarthy odds for 2025 season

via FanDuel Sportsbook

Still, if and when he actually trots onto the Soldier Field grass under the Monday night lights on Sept. 8, his No. 9 representing the present and future of the Vikings, McCarthy will become the first KOC signal-caller to open the year throwing his first-ever NFL passes. And that includes every single stop O’Connell has made in this profession, as far back as his debut as the Cleveland Browns‘ quarterbacks coach in 2015.

Is McCarthy set up for success, both by the Vikings’ infrastructure and O’Connell’s track record of making his quarterbacks feel comfortable? That now seems quite obvious. Park yourself on the sidelines for a single Minnesota practice, and it won’t be long before O’Connell’s infectious optimism begins to penetrate any remaining skepticism. The next part, however, is always a bit harder, especially when the pass rush is live, the schedule is punishing and the fans start growing impatient: delivering on expectations.

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Author: Cody Benjamin
July 21, 2025 | 10:36 am