Through his first two NFL seasons, Indianapolis Colts quarterback Anthony Richardson has had a rough go of things.
Richardson has dealt with numerous injuries and only started 15 of a possible 32 games, he was benched briefly in favor of Joe Flacco and he has struggled passing when actually on the field. He’s completed just 50.6% of his career passes at an average of 6.9 yards per attempt, with 11 touchdown passes against only 13 interceptions. He checks in 36th out of 44 qualified quarterbacks in expected points added (EPA) per dropback over the last two seasons, according to Tru Media, as well as 41st in success rate, 44th in catchable-throw rate and 43rd in interception rate.
The Colts signed former Giants and Vikings quarterback Daniel Jones this offseason to compete with Richardson for the starting job as Richardson heads into the third year of his career, and recently it’s seemed like Jones has the leg up in the competition because Richardson again had to miss time due to an injury. He’s reportedly fully recovered from that shoulder issue, though, and should be ready to go for training camp.
With that in mind, it’s worth taking a look at exactly where Richardson needs to improve to beat out Jones and fulfill the promise he had coming into the draft, when the Colts made him the fourth overall pick.
Before we get into that, though, it’s important to note that Richardson does have extraordinary talent. He is perhaps the single-most athletic player at the quarterback position, and he’s been a highly effective runner. (He has a career 59.5% rushing success rate, which is absurdly high.) His arm strength is top notch, and when he lets it rip quickly and decisively, you can see exactly what the Colts must have saw in him prior to the draft.
Combine this kind of stuff with the natural talent he obviously has, and the ceiling remains incredibly high. The issue is he doesn’t do that kind of thing often enough, and instead struggles in a lot of areas where quarterbacks absolutely need to excel to have success in the modern NFL. That’s why we want to walk through a few of those areas and pinpoint exactly where and how he needs to take his game to the next level to avoid losing the job in Indy.
Quick Game
On throws within 2.5 seconds of the snap, according to Tru Media, Richardson is just 83 of 129 for 788 yards for his career, with three touchdowns and three interceptions. Among 44 qualified passers, he checks in 44th in completion percentage and 43rd in off-target throw rate, with a 13.2% mark that is verging on double the league average of 7.5%. Meanwhile, his -11.5% completion percentage over expected, per NFL Pro, was dead last by a mile last season — and nearly twice as bad as the next-closest quarterback. (Cooper Rush was at -6.0%.)
His misses aren’t all of one type, either. Sometimes he’ll miss high and sometimes he’ll miss low and sometimes he’ll miss wide. His footwork is inconsistent at best. He doesn’t keep the best base and mostly counts on his arm strength to get the ball where it needs to go. Sometimes that works, because his arm talent is that rate. (See the video above.) But most of the time, it doesn’t.
Ball Placement
Speaking of his missed throws. Man, there is a wide variety to how his inaccuracy shows up on the field.
He’s all over the place with these misses, and it’s connected to his footwork (the poor base and his tendency to drift), his indecision, his general lack of touch and more.
Underneath Throws
Richardson’s lack of accuracy shows up on these types of passes more than anywhere else. Because his motion is so inconsistent and his footwork so poor, he sprays the ball to places where his receiver not only can’t catch it in stride but also doesn’t have time to adjust because the ball gets on him so quickly.
Again, per Tru Media, Richardson has completed only 62.4% of his career passes within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage — the worst completion rate among the aforementioned 44 qualifiers. He’s been off target with 9.1% of those throws, an astronomical number than is nearly 50% higher than the 6.4% league average. On the 160 of these throws that were *not* screen passes, Richardson has completed only 55.6% at an average of a mere 4.6 yards per attempt. Both of those figures again rank last among the group of qualified quarterbacks.
Anthony Richardson ‘still has time to prove it,’ Colts owner Carlie Irsay-Gordon says amid QB competition
Carter Bahns
Passing Under Pressure
Surprise, surprise, Richardson has struggled when the defense has gotten defenders into his face. Again, he ranks dead last in completion rate (38.9%) on these throws. His off-target throw rate of 19.5% is sky high. His 5.3% interception rate is outrageous, and higher than his 3.5% touchdown rate.
He has done an admirable job of avoiding sacks in these situations (15.9% sack rate that is ninth-lowest among the group) thanks to his elite athleticism, but he hasn’t been as frequent (7.4%) or effective (7.3 yards) a scrambler as you’d think he would be given his athletic gifts.
Still, his skittishness inside the pocket is noticeable. He’ll sometimes step himself into pressure rather than away from it, or move off his spot when the pressure is oncoming but not yet actually arriving.
He also routinely misses checkdown opportunities (i.e. doesn’t take them) when the pressure is closing in, eschewing the easy dump-off in favor of trying to find something further downfield or simply not sensing when he is out of time to throw and needs to get the ball away.
Deep Passing
Richardson has an outrageous of an arm as any quarterback in the league. When he connects on a deep ball, it looks absolutely gorgeous. And he can make throws few others in the NFL would even attempt thanks to his arm strength. Just look at this ball.
But he doesn’t actually connect on these throws very often. According to NFL Pro, he tied for the league’s third-worst completion percentage over expected (-13.2%) on passes of 20 air yards or more last season, and he had twice as many interceptions on those throws (four) as he did touchdowns (two). Throws like these are much more common than the ones above.
Now, you may be noticing something here, which is that Richardson has to improve on basically everything. Quick throws, short throws, long throws, dealing with pressure, accuracy in general. It’s a lot. If he can put it all together, he has the talent to be one of the best in the league. He’s still a ways away from doing that, though, or even reaching the level of a league-average quarterback. There’s a lot of work to be done.
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Author: Jared Dubin
July 22, 2025 | 11:06 am
