FOXBOROUGH, Mass. — The mighty are always bound for a fall in the NFL. At times, that didn’t feel possible for the New England Patriots, but the last half-decade has been a sobering period for a franchise that had the league in a chokehold for the bulk of the millennium. Yes, six Super Bowl championship banners hang inside Gillette Stadium but they have no connection to the players who were on the field on Day 1 of training camp. No players from that most recent title run in 2018 remain. This group has endured a leaner experience to the tune of back-to-back 4-13 seasons. And it sounds like they are fed up with it.
After largely giving off a cheerful vibe during his post-practice interview, second-year quarterback Drake Maye was asked what most excites him about this upcoming season. To that, his intensity seemed to, well, intensify and gave a definitive answer revolving around the organization turning the tide back toward winning football.
“I think you’ve got guys around here that are tired of losing around here and guys that want to win,” he said. “I think that’s what excites me most. Guys want to win around here. I think the past two or three years, around here in the past year for me, I can only speak for myself, but I think there’s guys around here that are tired of losing and want to win.”
That’s certainly an encouraging answer, but is it realistic? Is New England primed to get out of the proverbial gutter and put forward a more competitive outfit? Let’s examine.
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Tyler Sullivan
Revamped coaching staff
Maybe the most significant aspect of New England’s offseason was the hiring of Mike Vrabel as coach. Jerod Mayo, the Patriots coach last season, was put in a bad spot in the aftermath of Bill Belichick’s departure and wasn’t ready to take on the reins of the organization. And it showed throughout the year. In 2024, the club didn’t possess the tact necessary to make in-game adjustments and manufacture positive production, nor did Mayo convey a consistent message. That should change with this new regime. Vrabel arrives in Foxborough already with head coaching experience, serving as the lead man of the Tennessee Titans from 2018 to 2023. Over his career, he’s 56-48 and won NFL Coach of the Year back in 2021. Even if Vrabel is a baseline coach, his presence raises the floor of the organization. And that’s not mentioning the overhaul of the staff below him, including the return of offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels.
Injection of talent
No team spent more in free agency this offseason than New England. According to Spotrac, the club spent a total of roughly $360 million in free agent contracts, which included a league-high $196 million in total guarantees. That investment brought in the likes of defensive tackle Milton Williams, cornerback Carlton Davis, linebacker Robert Spillane, and pass rusher Harold Landry on the defensive side of the ball. Meanwhile, they bolstered the offensive line with right tackle Morgan Moses and added star wideout Stefon Diggs. What’s interesting about all of those names we just mentioned is that each of them has a prior relationship with someone on Vrabel’s coaching staff, if not the coach himself. That provides even more assurance that not only have the Patriots improved their talent on the free agent market, but they did so with players they know work in their system.
As Robert Kraft ran his pen dry writing checks in free agency, the front office also collected some fascinating prospects via the NFL Draft. Will Campbell, the No. 4 overall pick, fills arguably the biggest need on the roster a season ago as he’s penciled in as the Day 1 starter at left tackle. Meanwhile, Day 2 selections like running back TreVeyon Henderson and wideout Kyle Williams each provide next-level burst that has been sorely missing on offense.
Last season, the Patriots were one of the least talented rosters in the NFL, but were aggressive throughout the offseason to change the talent level around their young quarterback Maye, who flashed during his rookie season after being the No. 3 overall pick in 2024.
Soft 2025 schedule
While any team can get clipped in a given week, New England’s schedule is pretty soft compared to the rest of the league. According to their opponents’ combined over/under win total for the upcoming season (via Sharp Football Analysis), the Patriots are looking at the second-easiest schedule in the league. Even if you want to go by their opponents’ win percentage from 2024, New England is still looking at the third-easiest path in the NFL in 2025.
Four-win teams’ record the next season (since 2010)
How many four-win teams actually bounce back? Can it even be done? Well, it can and has happened a solid amount over the last 15 years. Since 2010, there have been 36 four-win teams in the NFL. After those campaigns, 16 clubs at the very least doubled their win total with eight-plus victories (44%). Twelve teams (33%) made the playoffs, and eight of them did so by winning their respective division. Conversely, there were eight teams (22%) over this stretch that followed that four-win season up with another year of four wins or fewer. That includes the 2023 Patriots, who went 4-13 last year.
If you want to shrink the time frame just a bit, it’s much more appealing for New England. Over roughly the last decade (coming off the 2014 season), 23 teams produced a four-win season, and 12 of them (52.1%) at least doubled their win total the following year. Ten of those teams made the playoffs (43.4%), and just four of them (17.3%) followed that year up with another four-win or fewer season.
| Arizona Cardinals | 4-13 (2023) | 8-9 (2024) | No |
| Washington Commanders | 4-13 (2023) | 12-5 (2024) | Yes (via wild card) |
| New England Patriots | 4-13 (2023) | 4-13 (2024) | No |
| Arizona Cardinals | 4-13 (2022) | 4-13 (2023) | No |
| Indianapolis Colts | 4-12-1 (2022) | 9-8 (2023) | No |
| New York Giants | 4-13 (2021) | 9-7-1 (2022) | Yes (via wild card) |
| New York Jets | 4-13 (2021) | 7-10 (2022) | No |
| Houston Texans | 4-13 (2021) | 3-13-1 (2022) | No |
| Atlanta Falcons | 4-12 (2020) | 7-10 (2021) | No |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 4-11-1 (2020) | 9-8 (2021) | Yes (via wild card) |
| Houston Texans | 4-12 (2020) | 4-13 (2021) | No |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 4-11-1 (2020) | 10-7 (2021) | Yes (won AFC North) |
| New York Giants | 4-12 (2019) | 6-10 (2020) | No |
| San Francisco 49ers | 4-12 (2018) | 13-3 (2019) | Yes (won NFC West) |
| Oakland Raiders | 4-12 (2018) | 7-9 (2019) | No |
| New York Jets | 4-12 (2018) | 7-9 (2019) | No |
| Houston Texans | 4-12 (2017) | 11-5 (2018) | Yes (won AFC South) |
| Indianapolis Colts | 4-12 (2017) | 10-6 (2018) | Yes (via wild card) |
| Los Angeles Rams | 4-12 (2016) | 11-5 (2017) | Yes (won NFC West) |
| Dallas Cowboys | 4-12 (2015) | 13-3 (2016) | Yes (won NFC East) |
| San Diego Chargers | 4-12 (2015) | 5-11 (2016) | No |
| Washington | 4-12 (2014) | 9-7 (2015) | Yes (won NFC East) |
| New York Jets | 4-12 (2014) | 10-6 (2015) | No |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 4-12 (2013) | 2-14 (2014) | No |
| Atlanta Falcons | 4-12 (2013) | 6-10 (2014) | No |
| Oakland Raiders | 4-12 (2013) | 3-13 (2014) | No |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 4-12 (2013) | 3-13 (2014) | No |
4-12 (2013) | 7-9 (2014) | No | |
4-12 (2012) | 7-9 (2013) | No | |
Philadelphia Eagles | 4 -12 (2012) | 10-6 (2013) | Yes (won NFC East) |
Oakland Raiders | 4-12 (2012) | 4-12 (2013) | No |
Cleveland Browns | 4-12 (2011) | 5-11 (2012) | No |
Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 4-12 (2011) | 7-9 (2012) | No |
4-12 (2010) | 8-8 (2011) | Yes (won AFC West) | |
Cincinnati Bengals | 4-12 (2010) | 9-7 (2011) | No |
4-12 (2010) | 6-10 (2011) | No |
Where the betting markets have the Patriots
Most books have New England’s over/under win total around 7.5 and 8.5, and the juice is to the over, meaning they are favored to at the very least double their win total from last season. While they are still technically plus-money to make the playoffs, they are right on the fringe, which would be a rather remarkable leap forward, but not one that’s out of the question if everything falls right.
Prediction
The stage is set for the Patriots to fall within that 44% of four-win teams (since 2010) to double their win total the following year. I would go so far as to predict that New England could follow in the footsteps of the 2021 Eagles, who enjoyed a 9-8 season and made the playoffs after a four-win slog the year prior. The similarity there is that the Eagles were entering Year 2 of quarterback Jalen Hurts and had also hired a new coach by the name of Nick Sirianni, just as the Patriots are entering Year 2 with Maye and ushering in Vrabel. Given how soft their schedule is, it also wouldn’t be surprising to see them notch a few more wins than that Eagles squad and bump into double-digit victories in the best-case scenario.
2025 record: 11-6
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Author: Tyler Sullivan
July 24, 2025 | 10:51 am
