NFC South 2025 burning questions: Can Falcons leapfrog Buccaneers? How bad could Saints QB situation get?

No division around the NFL has possessed a more winnable vibe than the NFC South the last two seasons despite the Tampa Bay Buccaneers being the back-to-back division champions.

In 2022, the Buccaneers wheezed across the finish line with an 8-9 record while the NFC South’s other three teams — the Atlanta Falcons, New Orleans Saints and Carolina Panthers — all stumbled to 7-10 records. In 2023, Tampa Bay and New Orleans finished with identical 9-8 records with the Falcons close behind at 7-10. The Buccaneers emerged atop the heap once again thanks to a higher win percentage in common games acting as the tiebreaker between the two. Last year, Tampa Bay needed until Week 18 to clinch the NFC South with a 10-7 record following a 27-19 victory over New Orleans and Atlanta losing 44-38 in overtime against Carolina. 

Once again, it’s within the realm of possibility that three of the division’s four teams, excluding the Saints after losing quarterback Derek Carr to a stunning early retirement, could contend for the NFC South’s top spot. 

Here is the most burning question for each team in the division ahead of training camps kicking off in late July. But first, here’s a look at each club’s odds to win the NFC South, NFC title and Super Bowl.

NFL odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Question: Can Baker Mayfield have a third consecutive career year in Tampa Bay under a third consecutive new offensive coordinator?

Mayfield has been a Pro Bowler in each of his first two years as the Buccaneers starting quarterback in both 2023 and 2024. Both of those seasons have been under now-departed offensive coordinators in 2023 (now-Panthers head coach Dave Canales) and in 2024 (now-Jacksonville Jaguars head coach Liam Coen). 

In 2025, Mayfield is set to enter his eighth NFL season while playing for his eighth different NFL offensive coordinator in Josh Grizzard, who was Coen’s passing game coordinator last season. Last season under Coen, Mayfield became the fourth player in NFL history to throw for 40 or more touchdowns (41) on a completion percentage of 70% (71.4%) or higher. He joined Drew Brees (2011), Aaron Rodgers (2020) and Joe Burrow (2024) in that elite club. 

Will Mayfield defy the odds and remain a top 10 quarterback once again in 2025 with another new offensive coordinator? Grizzard has never been a coordinator at either the college or NFL level until now. Bolstering Mayfield’s supporting cast to offset the lack of continuity at OC is one of the reasons why the Buccaneers drafted Ohio State’s all-time receptions leader (205) Emeka Egbuka in the first round.

Atlanta Falcons

Question: Can the Falcons make the leap and win the NFC South with Michael Penix Jr. running Zac Robinson’s offense?

Quarterback Kirk Cousins looked every bit like someone in his mid-30s coming off a torn Achilles. He struggled to fully step into throws and lacked the mobility required to thrive at the quarterback position in today’s NFL. That’s why he co-led the league in interceptions with 16 last season. Penix came in at the end of the year to start Atlanta’s final three games, and he threw for the eighth-most passing yards in the league from Weeks 16-18 (737). He also threw the same amount of touchdowns (three) as interceptions (three). 

Last year, new offensive coordinator Zac Robinson needed to design an offense that was built to hide Cousins’ weaknesses in the mobility department. That’s why Atlanta had the NFL’s lowest play-action pass rate (7.6%) by a wide margin: The Dallas Cowboys were the next-lowest team with an 11.1% rate. This offseason, Robinson can reintegrate the play-action pass in all forms to his playbook, which should further showcase fellow first-round picks at running back (Bijan Robinson), wide receiver (Drake London) and tight end (Kyle Pitts). That could lift the Falcons’ offense to a higher and much more consistent level, which could be enough to finally topple Tampa Bay off the top spot in the NFC South. 

Carolina Panthers

Question: Will Bryce Young make a critical leap in his development in 2025? 

Bryce Young, the 2023 NFL Draft’s first overall pick, appeared to turn a corner in 2024, his first season under new head coach Dave Canales who came over from the Buccaneers. Canales benched him last year, and he came back with improved ball security, registering 20 total touchdowns to just eight turnovers in his final 10 games of 2024, four of which were wins. That’s a big jump from his first 18 games when he produced 12 touchdowns to 19 turnovers and only two wins.

Naturally, the Panthers sought to empower their quarterback in the 2025 NFL Draft with the selection of the draft’s top pure wide receiver prospect in Arizona All-American Tetairoa McMillan. He led the nation in both receiving yards (3,423, an Arizona program record) and catches of 20 or more air yards (35) during his three-year Wildcats career. Young will now have two first-round wideouts at his disposal in McMillan and 2024 first-round pick Xavier Legette and a deep, three-back committee at running back with Chuba Hubbard, former Cowboys lead back Rico Dowdle and rookie Trevor Etienne out of Georgia. 

*Arizona program record

Young’s third NFL season in 2025 provides him with both scheme continuity under Canales and the best supporting cast of his career. It’s now time to see what Young is made of at the NFL level in Year 3. 

New Orleans Saints

Question: How dark will the Saints’ 2025 season get? 

The Saints are staring down a quarterback competition between Spencer Rattler, Jake Haener and 2025 second-round pick Tyler Shough following Derek Carr’s offseason retirement that was triggered by a lingering shoulder injury. The team went 0-7 in the games Carr missed because of injury last season when Rattler (0-6) and Haener (0-1) were filling in.

Shough enters the NFL with major injury question marks after the 25-year-old started just 32 games in seven collegiate seasons. Thanks to the Saints’ perpetual state of salary cap purgatory, they’re projected to be $54.7 million over the cap in 2026 by OverTheCap.com. The only notable offensive additions New Orleans has made this offseason is signing the soon-to-be 32-year-old Brandin Cooks and drafting Texas All-American offensive tackle Kelvin Banks Jr. ninth overall. 

The first year of first-time head coach Kellen Moore’s tenure in New Orleans could be outright dreadful.