The blueprint for Caleb Williams to end Bears’ 105-season drought, become team’s first 4,000-yard passer

It’s common knowledge the Chicago Bears don’t have a storied history when it comes to quarterback production. Perhaps 2024 first overall pick Caleb Williams could change that while working under new head coach Ben Johnson. 

In the current pass-first football era we live in today, it is unfathomable that the Bears, who have been around for 105 seasons, have never had a quarterback throw for at least 4,000 yards in a season. Despite Williams reportedly complaining about a lack of guidance from Shane Waldron, his offensive coordinator to start his NFL career, and taking 68 sacks (tied for the third-most ever in a single season), he threw for 3,541 yards — the fifth-most in a season in franchise history. 

So how is Williams set to have one of the best seasons in Bears history in 2025? 

For one, he’s a strong talent who now has a much-improved offensive ecosystem around him, which includes a better on-field supporting cast and coaching staff.

• Chicago traded for two-time All-Pro left guard Joe Thuney from the Kansas City Chiefs this offseason. He hasn’t allowed a sack in the past 25 regular season games, making him the only player in the NFL to not allow a sack in that span — minimum 650 pass-blocking snaps. T
• The Bears also signed the top center available in free agency this offseason, swiping away Drew Dalman from the Atlanta Falcons on a three-year, $42 million deal. Pro Football Focus assigned him the fourth-highest offensive grade (78.8) in the NFL among centers last season. 
• Then, the Bears drafted two young pass-catchers to add to Williams’ disposal alongside wide receiver DJ Moore and 2024 ninth overall pick Rome Odunze: Michigan standout tight end Colston Loveland (Round 1, 10th overall pick) and two-time first-team All-SEC wide receiver Luther Burden III (Round 2, 39th overall pick).

Plus, Williams will have an offense with all those pieces orchestrated by Johnson, his new head coach whose Detroit Lions offenses averaged an NFL-most 29.0 points per game since 2022. There are three things Williams that if he corrects under Johnson’s tutelage, they could have major positive effects on the 23-year-old’s game. 

First and foremost would be the reintroduction of the play action passing game. The Bears ran play action on 11.4% of their plays in 2024, the third-lowest rate in the NFL last season, but Johnson’s Lions utilized play action at the highest rate in the entire NFL in 2024, using it on 20.2% of their plays. Play action can simplify reads for quarterbacks by sometimes breaking down plays into half-field reads, and it forces the defense to pause for a split second, which can make all the difference in the world on a given play in the NFL. 

Williams, unsurprisingly, was a much better quarterback when the Bears did actually call play-action passes in his rookie season. 

Johnson could also coax Williams into being more willing to take the checkdown throws when available and/or simply be more decisive when dropping back to pass. That could also come with Williams having a greater trust in Johnson’s scheme than he did Waldron’s a year ago. 

Williams’ average time to throw of 3.13 seconds last season was the fourth-longest in the NFL. Meanwhile in Detroit, Jared Goff’s average time to throw of 2.88 seconds was the 16th-fastest in the NFL among 36 qualified quarterbacks in 2024. Williams getting the ball out faster will certainly help him avoid being a historically sacked quarterback in 2025, and it could also help Chicago’s offense stay in rhythm on a more consistent basis with him being more willing to take the short completions defenses will be willing to surrender. The shorter average time to throw could also course correct the third thing, the eye-popping sacks taken total of 68 from Williams’ rookie year. 

So, what could Williams’ 2025 output look like with an improved array of playmakers while running Johnson’s much more sophisticated offensive system? CBSSports.com’s fantasy football projections have Williams throwing for 3,747 yards passing, 25 touchdowns and 10 interceptions in 2025. That passing yards figure would rank as the third-most in a single season in Bears history. FanDuel Sportsbook gives Williams +280 odds to throw for 4,000 yards in 2025, an implied probability of 26.32%. 

Williams became just the fourth rookie in NFL history last season to produce 4,000 total yards and fewer than 10 interceptions, joining reigning NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Jayden Daniels, 2023 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year C.J. Stroud and 2012 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Robert Griffin III. Under Johnson’s guidance with an improved on-field supporting cast, the sky might be the limit for the 2024 first-overall draft pick in Chicago. 

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Author: Garrett Podell
June 4, 2025 | 5:30 pm