The last time Nick Chubb played and finished a full season healthy, he was a top-six running back overall in Fantasy Football scoring and top-eight in Fantasy points per game in all scoring formats. That was in 2022. He finished the season with over 1,500 yards rushing and averaged over five yards per carry — a mark he has eclipsed in every year of his career besides the 2024 season last year. Chubb suffered a season-ending left knee injury during Week 2 vs. the Steelers after his dominant Fantasy performance in 2022. Last season, Chubb broke his foot in Week 15. Now, expected to be fully recovered from last year’s foot injury, Chubb will sign a contract to play for the Houston Texans in 2025 if he passes his physical.
Chubb’s 1500-yard season was a career best but he also boats four individual 1,000-yard seasons on his resume. He will join a Texans backfield that was led by Joe Mixon last season. However, Mixon is currently dealing with an ankle injury that has kept him out of spring OTAs. He is expected to be fine for training camp. The Texans also have former Day 3 draft pick Dameon Pierce in the backfield — he is also dealing with an injury that has held him out of OTAs but should be fine for training camp. The Texans also used a mid-round draft pick to select running back Woody Marks in the 2025 NFL Draft. Marks could immediately serve as the passing downs back in 2025.
It’s clear Chubb is not being signed to serve as a healthy body until these backs return — he will be signed to play a role in the offense. The question becomes what role that will be and what it means for Fantasy. That question was broken down on a recent episode of Fantasy Football Today with Adam Aizer, Jamey Eisenberg, and Heath Cummings.
Chubb clearly wasn’t the same player after returning from a broken leg in 2024. He averaged a career-low (by far) 3.3 yards per carry on 102 carries. His long speed was never a trademark of his game, but he was able to break off big runs with acceleration and that wasn’t the case last season when he finished with a long run of 19 yards.
The advanced underlying stats were more troubling. Chubb finished dead last in yards after contact per attempt (1.96) — this area of his game was always a major plus. He also finished with the third-worst missed forced tackles per attempt rate in the entire NFL (0.1) and the fourth-worst explosive run rate (15+ yard gains) at just 2%.
Chubb joins a backfield that was not only led by Mixon in 2024 but dominated by him. He finished the season with the fourth-highest designed rush rate among all NFL backs, per Establish the Run. As they broke down over at ETR, the Texans essentially used Mixon and only Mixon if he was healthy. Mixon was one of the biggest workhorse backs in the NFL in 2024, but maybe that’s why they’re adding Chubb — to keep Mixon healthy for a postseason run. Mixon’s Fantasy value takes a major hit as it was in a lot of ways volume-based production. He will no longer be guaranteed the vast majority of red zone work as well — this is where Mixon did a lot of his damage in 2024.
Heath mentioned that he’s considering moving Mixon in his rankings. “Round 3 for Mixon already had a lot of risk in my mind. He has reached the age where we start to have concerns about ranking him in the top 10 among running backs. Mixon is at the top of the aging backs group — RB16 for me in Pick No. 30 overall in the middle of Round 3.”
Mixon averaged over 21 touches per game when healthy in 2024. “That number is going to go down,” Jamey said. “But this could improve the value for Mixon in Fantasy drafts (as managers let him fall). This may change how people draft. In the early drafts we’ve done on CBS Sports, I want to draft wide receivers earlier (two of my first three picks). It’s muddier now at running back, especially if J.K. Dobbins signs with Denver. This could mean I am more likely to draft a running back earlier and bypass my plan of grabbing two receivers in my first three picks.”
If Chubb returns to his old self, he will potentially push to lead the backfield in Houston and could provide excellent value as a player currently being selected in the late rounds of Fantasy drafts. Mixon is a player I will likely be avoiding in all drafts given how much volume played a factor in his production last season.
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Author: Dan Schneier
June 9, 2025 | 1:25 pm
