
When the Denver Broncos spent the 12th overall pick on Bo Nix last year after five other quarterbacks had come off the board, it was seen as a reach by many considering he was labeled a second-round talent by the consensus. But Sean Payton saw a perfect fit for his system, and the early results certainly back him up after the Broncos finished 10th in scoring with six games over 30 points and four others with at least 26 points. Nix completed nearly two-thirds of his passes with 29 touchdowns and 12 interceptions as the Broncos made a surprise trip to the playoffs.
In order to take aim at the Chiefs for the division title, Nix will have to stave off sophomore regression that affects many successful rookie quarterbacks, most recently C.J. Stroud. The team has made two key upgrades to make sure that doesn’t happen, adding Evan Engram at tight end to give Nix a legitimate No. 2 threat next to Courtland Sutton, and adding RJ Harvey and J.K. Dobbins to a running back group that finished 21st in yards per carry despite elite play from the offensive line.
Another key for the Broncos will be maintaining the high performance of a defense that finished third in scoring last year but 27th the year prior with the same defensive coordinator and much of the same personnel. All the key contributors to the league-best 63-sack total return, and Dre Greenlaw and Talanoa Hufanga join the unit from San Francisco as potential difference-makers if the former can stay healthy and the latter can revert to his play from 2022-23 rather than last year’s down season. The Broncos also spent their first-round pick on Jahdae Barron to give reigning Defensive Player of the Year Patrick Surtain II some help at cornerback. The additions give the Broncos just as good a chance to have the best defense in the league.
We’re going to take a quick look at the Broncos’ 2024 season and the rest of their offseason moves before getting into their track record in NFL futures over the last five years. After that, you can find the odds available at top sportsbooks for their 2025 win total along with Super Bowl and playoff odds as well as key player props to know. Finally, we’ll take a look at the pros and cons of betting on the Broncos in 2025 and give out our best bets.
2024 Denver Broncos season review
- Regular season: 10-7 (Third, AFC West)
- Playoffs: L, Wild-card round at Bills 31-7
- Snapped longest playoff drought all-time (eight seasons) after Super Bowl win
- Bo Nix: First rookie QB to start a playoff game in franchise history
- No. 3 scoring defense after ranking 27th last season (franchise-record 63 sacks)
2025 Denver Broncos offseason review
Five-year futures odds and trends
2024 | +15000 | 5.5 | Over | 10 | L, Wild card round |
2023 | +4500 | 8.5 | Under | 8 | 2nd, AFC West |
2022 | +1680 | 10.5 | Under | 5 | 4th, AFC West |
2021 | +5000 | 9 | Under | 7 | 4th, AFC West |
2020 | +4000 | 7.5 | Under | 5 | 4th, AFC West |
Historical betting data via Pro-Football-Reference.
2025 Denver Broncos futures odds
Go Over win total | 9.5 (-105) | 9.5 (-125) | 9.5 (-105) | 9.5 (+110) |
Go Under win total | 9.5 (-115) | 9.5 (-105) | 9.5 (-115) | 9.5 (-130) |
Win Super Bowl | +4000 | +3000 | +2500 | +2800 |
Win AFC | +1500 | +1600 | +1300 | +1400 |
Win AFC North | +350 | +380 | +300 | +340 |
Make playoffs | -105 | +100 | -120 | -114 |
Miss playoffs | -120 | -120 | +100 | -106 |
Win No. 1 seed | +1200 | +1100 | +1100 | +1500 |
Odds subject to change.
2025 Bo Nix props
MVP | +4000 | +6000 | +3500 | +7500 |
Offensive POY | +15000 | +12500 | +10000 | +15000 |
Most pass yards | +4000 | +5000 | +3600 | |
Pass yards O/U | 3500.5 | 3450.5 | 3425.5 | 3500.5 |
Pass TDs O/U | 24.5 | 24.5 | 24.5 | 24.5 |
Odds subject to change.
Reasons to back the Broncos
This is a team that finished top 10 in scoring with a rookie quarterback and top three in scoring defense and basically lost no one in the offseason. While Bo Nix’s rookie numbers are impressive, they need the context that Sean Payton seemed to put more on his plate as the season went along as Nix proved capable—two of his four multi-interception games came in the first two weeks, while his first of five games with at least three passing touchdowns didn’t come until Week 8. If the Nix of the second half is the baseline of what to expect in 2025 with the potential for even more, this could be the best team in the division, even including the dynastic Chiefs.
Evan Engram has the potential to be a massive addition to the offense, but what’s notable is who they didn’t add, and that’s anyone to an elite offensive line that suffers zero offensive snaps lost on the depth chart from last year. Dre Greenlaw and Talanoa Hufanga can strengthen a great defense up the middle, while Jahdae Barron might prove to be the best cornerback in the draft despite being available at No. 20 overall. A team with so many position groups that could challenge for being the best in the league or at least top five has all the upside of a Super Bowl contender.
Reasons to fade the Broncos
Many of the plaudits showered on Nix were the same being showered on C.J. Stroud at this time last year, but the Texans slipped in scoring offense as Stroud threw for much fewer yards per game and saw his interception rate jump. Nix can’t really afford the latter after throwing 12 interceptions last year, and it’s possible the running game doesn’t see a significant bump from its new backs. While J.K. Dobbins’ overall numbers were great in his return from injury, he saw two massive performances in the first two weeks and only three other games with better than four yards per carry. RJ Harvey wasn’t considered a dynamic game-changer prior to the draft but more of a dependable banger, and though the upside for both backs behind this offensive line is huge, it’s anyone’s guess if they’ll reach their ceilings.
While the defense has the potential to be the best in the league, there’s a huge gap between being third in scoring last year and 27th the year prior, and if they face negative regression this year, there becomes more pressure on the offense to pick up the slack. They, of course, play in one of the tougher divisions of football, with the Chiefs dominating the AFC West for several years, and the schedule sees them having to play their away NFC East games against the two toughest opponents at Philadelphia and Washington, along with facing the Texans in Houston. That leaves plenty of winnable home games, but this team will certainly be tested away from Denver as it pursues a division title.
How to bet the Broncos in 2025
- Over 9.5 wins +110 (FanDuel)
- Make playoffs +100 (Caesars)
- Bo Nix MVP +6000 (Caesars)
I’m buying on the Broncos in 2025. They finished seventh in point differential in the entire league last year, third in the AFC behind only the Bills and Ravens. Their 10-7 record was far from a fluke and probably should’ve been even better. They have a future Hall of Fame coach in Sean Payton, an offensive line that’s one of the best in football and is enjoying maximum continuity this offseason, and a defense that led the league in sacks last year by a wide margin and may have gotten better in other areas. If Payton can get an improved season from Bo Nix in Year 2, this team could crash the AFC playoff party and challenge for a Super Bowl berth, and with Payton’s history, there’s no reason to think he’s not up to the task.
Speaking of Nix, we have seen players like Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson take a Year 2 leap en route to an MVP award and placement in the top tier of quarterbacks in the NFL. Nix could be the next in line despite his unassuming draft status (remember that Mahomes was the 10th overall pick and Jackson lasted until the end of Round 1; neither was considered to have the ceilings they eventually displayed). Nix saw a clear jump in play from his first seven games, where he had a 5:5 TD:INT ratio and completed 61.2% of his passes, to his last 10 games, where he played at a pace of 4,299 yards, 41 TDs and 12 INTs with a 69.7% completion rate. If Payton cleans up those interceptions, those are MVP-caliber numbers, and I’d be willing to sprinkle a small bet on Nix winning the award in a shocker.
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Author: R.J. White
July 1, 2025 | 8:25 am
