The Minnesota Vikings marched into a Week 18 matchup against the Lions last season with a chance to earn the No. 1 seed in the NFC and finish with 15 wins for the second time in franchise history. Instead, the offense disappeared as Sam Darnold went 18 for 41 and Minnesota scored only nine points to get relegated to the Wild Card Round, where they again scored nine points as Darnold got sacked nine times by the Rams.
The franchise decided Darnold was not the long-term answer for the team, letting him depart in free agency. That means the reins at quarterback will be handed over to 2024 first-round pick J.J. McCarthy, who missed all of last season after suffering a torn meniscus in the preseason. He benefits from potentially the best 1-2 punch at receiver in the league outside of Cincinnati.
Much like his fellow first-round pick in Chicago, McCarthy will be working in front of an entirely new interior offensive line after the Vikings signed Ryan Kelly and Will Fries from Indianapolis and drafted Donovan Jackson in the first round. With an excellent pair of tackles in place, McCarthy has everything he needs to succeed at his disposal, but the uncertainty around his level of play has a wide spread in Vikings futures odds available in the betting market, with the team ranging from +2000 to +3000 to win the Super Bowl over the summer.
We’re going to take a quick look at the Vikings’ 2024 season and the rest of their offseason moves before getting into their track record in NFL futures over the last five years. After that, you can find the odds available at top sportsbooks for their 2025 win total along with Super Bowl and playoff odds as well as key player props to know. Finally, we’ll take a look at the pros and cons of betting on the Vikings in 2025 and give out our best bets.
2024 Minnesota Vikings season review
- Regular season: 14-3 (Second, NFC North)
- Playoffs: Lost to Rams in Wild Card Round 27-9
- Most wins (14) by non-division winner in NFL history
- Sam Darnold: Most QB wins (14) and fourth-most pass TDs (35) in first season with team all-time
- J.J. McCarthy: First QB drafted in first round to miss entire rookie season due to injury
2025 Minnesota Vikings offseason review
| QB | Sam Darnold, Daniel Jones, Nick Mullens | Sam Howell | |
| RB | Cam Akers | Jordan Mason | |
| WR | Trent Sherfield, Brandon Powell | Rondale Moore, Tim Jones | Tai Felton (3) |
| TE | Johnny Mundt | Gavin Bartholomew (6) | |
| OL | Garrett Bradbury, Dalton Risner, Ed Ingram, Cam Robinson, David Quessenberry, Dan Feeney | Ryan Kelly, Will Fries, Justin Skule | Donovan Jackson (1) |
| DL | Jerry Tillery, Jonathan Bullard | Jonathan Allen, Javon Hargrave | Tyrion Ingram-Dawkins (5) |
| EDGE | Patrick Jones, Jihad Ward | ||
| LB | Kamu Grugier-Hill | Eric Wilson | Kobe King (6) |
| CB | Shaquill Griffin, Stephon Gilmore, Fabian Moreau | Isaiah Rodgers, Jeff Okudah, Tavierre Thomas, Kahlef Hailassie, Reddy Steward | |
| S | Camryn Bynum | ||
| STAFF |
Five-year futures odds and trends
| 2024 | +10000 | 6.5 | Over | 14 | L, Wild-card round |
| 2023 | +4000 | 8.5 | Under | 7 | 3rd, NFC North |
| 2022 | +3600 | 9.5 | Over | 13 | L, Wild-card round |
| 2021 | +4000 | 9 | Under | 8 | 2nd, NFC North |
| 2020 | +2500 | 9 | Under | 7 | 3rd, NFC North |
Historical betting data via Pro-Football-Reference.
2025 Minnesota Vikings futures odds
| Go Over win total | 9.5 (+105) | 8.5 (-170) | 9.5 (+105) | 8.5 (-150) |
| Go Under win total | 9.5 (-125) | 8.5 (+140) | 9.5 (-125) | 8.5 (+125) |
| Win Super Bowl | +2500 | +2200 | +3000 | +2100 |
| Win NFC | +1500 | +1100 | +1400 | +1000 |
| Win NFC North | +400 | +375 | +350 | +270 |
| Make playoffs | -115 | -110 | -110 | -106 |
| Miss playoffs | -105 | -110 | -110 | -114 |
| Win No. 1 seed | +1200 | +1200 | +1000 | +1100 |
Odds subject to change.
2025 J.J. McCarthy props
| MVP | +8000 | +5000 | +6000 | +7500 |
| Comeback POY | +900 | +650 | +850 | +850 |
| Most pass yards | +2500 | +2500 | +2500 | |
| Pass yards O/U | 3750.5 | 3625.5 | 3650.5 | 3650.5 |
| Pass TDs O/U | 24.5 | 24.5 | 24.5 | 24.5 |
Odds subject to change.
Reasons to back the Vikings
Kevin O’Connell won 13 games with Kirk Cousins in his first season in Minnesota and then 14 games with Darnold following the injury to McCarthy last preseason. Clearly, the Vikings head coach has the ability to maximize his offense and get the most out of his quarterbacks provided they have some level of base talent, and Darnold earning MVP votes after being a top-of-the-draft bust and journeyman quarterback is one of the best QB coaching success stories in recent memory. If the talent is there with McCarthy and the former Michigan quarterback can stay healthy behind an upgraded offensive line, O’Connell has a great chance at leading his team back to the playoffs.
A defense that took a major leap in Brian Flores’ first season in 2023 went from 13th to fifth in scoring last year but stayed 16th in yardage for the second straight year. Rather than rest on their laurels, the Vikings went out and made several changes to the unit. Jonathan Allen and Javon Hargrave are coming off down years but both have a history of quality play on the defensive front. Isaiah Rodgers was a smart value pickup as his performance in limited snaps with the Colts and Eagles since being drafted in 2020 has earned him a more prominent role.
Reasons to fade the Vikings
There is the possibility that McCarthy is closer in talent to the Nick Mullens tier of QB that struggled under O’Connell. His NFL comparisons were all over the map during 2024 but did include players like Daniel Jones, Will Levis and even one of the backup QBs that was part of that 2023 Vikings season, Jaren Hall. McCarthy lost a key year of development due to the injury, and he’s walking into one of the toughest schedules and divisions in the league.
Speaking of that schedule, McCarthy will have to be on point right out of the gate to pick up wins against potentially the easiest part of Minnesota’s schedule. The Vikings start by facing an improved Bears team on the road before hosting the Falcons and Bengals, then have to manage a two-week trip to England to face the Steelers and Browns. Following a Week 6 bye, the Vikings have six games against playoff teams in eight weeks as well as matchups with the Bears and Seahawks. If McCarthy is good and the defense doesn’t regress, the Vikings could win around half of their games against playoff opponents, excel in their other matchups and get to 10 or 11 wins. But if things start to go south, the schedule is such that Minnesota’s only “easy” matchups will be on the road against the Browns and Giants.
How to bet the Vikings in 2025
- Under 9.5 wins -125 (DraftKings)
- Miss playoffs -105 (BetMGM)
- Justin Jefferson Over 1200.5 receiving yards -115 (Caesars)
The make/miss playoffs market is a great way to take a position on Minnesota if you have a strong feeling on what the Vikings will get out of McCarthy in 2025, as most markets make it around a coin flip. Last year, the Vikings’ win total was 6.5 with McCarthy as the projected starter, and I don’t think Darnold’s career season should move their win total up by three heading into this year. The reworked offensive line will take a little time to come together, and by the time they do, the Vikings will be in the brutal part of their schedule. I’m also not counting on another top-10 scoring season from the Vikings, and when you pair that with what could be an average offense, this doesn’t feel like a playoff team to me.
One player I’m not concerned about regardless of McCarthy’s performance is Justin Jefferson, who has averaged more receiving yards per game than anyone in NFL history despite the Vikings’ quarterback situation over the last few years. Jefferson’s 1,533 yards last year saw his average yards per game actually drop more than 15 yards from each of the previous two seasons, and he may only need to play 12 games to top 1,200 yards. As long as he doesn’t miss more than three games this season, he should get Over his total.
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Author: R.J. White
July 14, 2025 | 8:26 am
