After struggling at the quarterback position since moving on from Matt Ryan following the 2021 season, the Atlanta Falcons went out last offseason and used multiple valuable resources to address the issue. First, they signed Kirk Cousins to a $180 million deal, then they used the No. 8 overall pick on Michael Penix Jr. After Cousins, who tore his Achilles the previous season, struggled to return to form, the Falcons made the decision to give Penix the final three starts of the season, in which Atlanta went 1-2 but averaged 32 points per game.
With Penix in place as the starter moving forward, the Falcons turned to their next most pressing issue: addressing a defense that finished 31st in sacks with no player securing more than six. First, the team gave Leonard Floyd a one-year, $10 million deal — their biggest signing of the offseason on an average annual value basis — and then threw two first-round picks at the issue in the draft, taking Jalon Walker 15th overall and then trading their 2026 first-round pick to get back into the late first round for James Pearce.
Those moves, along with using their next two picks on the secondary, mean the Falcons did next to nothing to upgrade the offense around Penix, so it’ll be on last year’s No. 8 overall pick to account for the improvement in the offense by surpassing the level of play Cousins brought to the table. Penix threw for plenty of yardage in his three starts but only completed 58% of his passes while throwing three touchdowns and three interceptions, and that came against two below-average defenses and the worst defensive unit in the league. Even with the Falcons facing one of the easiest schedules in the league, Penix is going to have to play much better to help Atlanta reach the playoffs for the first time since 2017.
We’re going to take a quick look at the Falcons’ 2024 season and the rest of their offseason moves before getting into their track record in NFL futures over the last five years. After that, you can find the odds available at top sportsbooks for their 2025 win total along with Super Bowl and playoff odds as well as key player props to know. Finally, we’ll take a look at the pros and cons of betting on the Falcons in 2025 and give out our best bets.
2024 Atlanta Falcons season review
- Regular season: 8-9 (Second, NFC South)
- Playoffs: Missed
- Missed playoffs for seventh straight season (tied for second longest active NFL drought)
- Went 2-6 in final 8 games after starting season 6-3
- Bijan Robinson: Third-most rush yards (1,456) in NFL behind Saquon Barkley and Derrick Henry
2025 Atlanta Falcons offseason review
| QB | Easton Stick | ||
| RB | Jashaun Corbin | ||
| WR | Rondale Moore, Phillip Dorsett | Jamal Agnew, David Sills, Makai Polk | |
| TE | Ross Dwelley | Teagan Quitoriano, Feleipe Franks, Nikola Kalinic | |
| OL | Drew Dalman | Matthew Cindic, Killian Zierer | Jack Nelson (7) |
| DL | Grady Jarrett, Eddie Goldman, Demone Harris | Morgan Fox | |
| EDGE | Matthew Judon, Lorenzo Carter, James Smith-Williams | Leonard Floyd | Jalon Walker (1), James Pearce (1) |
| LB | Nathan Landman | Divine Deablo, Caleb Johnson | |
| CB | Antonio Hamilton, Avery Williams, Harrison Hand | Mike Ford, Keith Taylor | Billy Bowman (4) |
| S | Justin Simmons, Richie Grant, Micah Abernathy | Jordan Fuller, Josh Thompson | Xavier Watts (3) |
| STAFF | Jimmy Lake (DC) | Jeff Ulbrich (DC) |
Five-year futures odds and trends
| 2024 | +3000 | 9.5 | Under | 8 | 2nd, NFC South |
| 2023 | +7000 | 8.5 | Under | 7 | 3rd, NFC South |
| 2022 | +23000 | 4.5 | Over | 7 | 4th, NFC South |
| 2021 | +8000 | 7.5 | Under | 7 | 3rd, NFC South |
| 2020 | +5000 | 7.5 | Under | 4 | 4th, NFC South |
Historical betting data via Pro-Football-Reference.
2025 Atlanta Falcons futures odds
| Go Over win total | 7.5 (-145) | 7.5 (-170) | 7.5 (-140) | 7.5 (-135) |
| Go Under win total | 7.5 (+120) | 7.5 (+140) | 7.5 (+115) | 7.5 (+115) |
| Win Super Bowl | +8000 | +6000 | +8000 | +6000 |
| Win NFC | +3500 | +3500 | +3500 | +2900 |
| Win NFC South | +240 | +225 | +240 | +220 |
| Make playoffs | +150 | +150 | +155 | +146 |
| Miss playoffs | -185 | -180 | -190 | -178 |
| Win No. 1 seed | +3000 | +2800 | +2500 | +2500 |
Odds subject to change.
2025 Michael Penix Jr. props
| MVP | +6600 | +7000 | +6000 | +7500 |
| Offensive POY | +10000 | +12500 | +15000 | +20000 |
| Most pass yards | +3000 | +2500 | +2300 | |
| Pass yards O/U | 3400.5 | 3400.5 | 3400.5 | 3350.5 |
| Pass TDs O/U | 18.5 | 18.5 | 18.5 |
Odds subject to change.
Reasons to back the Falcons
Penix brings upside to the table on offense, particularly if he can cut down on interceptions after Cousins led the league with 16 picks in his 14 games. He’s now had a full year to develop under offensive coordinator Zac Robinson, who came to the Falcons last offseason with impressive credentials from his work with the Rams, so it’s possible Penix performs at a much higher level than he did in his three-start stint at the end of last year. He’ll also be able to lean on one of the best running back tandems in the league to take the pressure off.
The schedule should be one of the easiest in the league with six games against the NFC South and another four against the AFC East, and though they finished second in the division, their non-common opponents include two teams that may be at Atlanta’s level or worse this year in the Vikings and Colts. The Bills in Week 6 are the last playoff team they’ll face until Week 15, so Penix will be afforded a long stretch to build confidence and settle into a groove in the middle of the season.
Reasons to fade the Falcons
Asking two rookies to come in and both make a significant impact in Year 1 is asking a lot, especially with neither being picked higher than 15th overall, but that’s what the Falcons need from Walker and Pearce after losing longtime defensive stalwart Grady Jarrett in the middle of the defense. Free-agent signee Floyd has managed 8.5 sacks or more for five straight seasons but he has graded out progressively worse at PFF over the last three years and at 33 years old, it’s hard to see him being the impact player the team needs on defense.
For as mediocre as Cousins was last year, there’s no indication Penix will be better just because he was a top-10 draft pick. He came into the draft with evaluations typically projecting him as a fringe first-rounder before Atlanta made the move at No. 8 overall, and his performance in three games against unremarkable defenses don’t scream franchise signal-caller. He’ll have to work with a new center after the departure of Drew Dalman, and the weapons at his disposal aside from Drake London and Bijan Robinson aren’t much to write home about. Depending on how the rest of the division performs, Atlanta could win the NFC South or finish last without shocking anyone.
How to bet the Falcons in 2025
- Under 7.5 wins +140 (Caesars)
- Michael Penix Jr. Over 3350.5 passing yards -114 (FanDuel)
The schedule could help Atlanta get to eight wins, but I just don’t know how someone can have a lot of confidence in this team without buying in completely to Michael Penix being a franchise quarterback, which I haven’t yet. Perhaps bringing in Jeff Ulbrich from the Jets and the two rookie edge rushers will suddenly give the Falcons an above-average defense, but projecting that involves another layer of optimism on top of Penix playing like a league-average starting QB or better. The other offseason moves don’t breed a lot of confidence, and I don’t know what on Atlanta’s requires us to just slot them in as better than the Panthers without question, and that’s coming from someone who isn’t sure he’s buying into Carolina either.
The one thing I do expect is for Penix to throw for a bunch of yards between the 20s in an offense that had more than 4,000 passing yards last year. If he stays healthy for all 17 games, he’ll only need 200 per game to get to 3,400 yards. That’s not exactly guaranteed — five QBs started at least 10 games without hitting that average — but I think it’s a reasonable expectation in this offense after we saw what Penix could do at the end of last year. If the Falcons lose the juicy Under play above, I have a lot more confidence in Penix hitting this Over, so consider it a bit of a hedge if you’re not full bought in on Under 7.5 wins.
Go to Source
Author: R.J. White
July 15, 2025 | 8:35 am
