The Buffalo Bills enter the 2025 season with Super Bowl expectations, and most sportsbooks have the team near the top of their title odds ladders. The Bills have won the AFC East five years in a row and are heavy favorites to capture a sixth straight division crown this season but the ultimate goal is to get to the last game of the season. Buffalo has been unable to do that, losing twice in the AFC Championship Game and three times in the Divisional Round over the last five seasons.
One big reason the Bills are expected to be contenders is the presence of quarterback Josh Allen, who is coming off a successful 2024 season where he captured his first MVP award. Allen is a strong contender to repeat as MVP at multiple sportsbooks. Head coach Sean McDermott is back as well, looking to win double-digit games for a seventh straight year.
The Bills didn’t make significant changes to a roster that made it to the AFC Championship Game last year before losing to the rival Chiefs once again in the postseason. It was Buffalo’s fourth playoff loss to Kansas City in the last five seasons. Joey Bosa replaces Von Miller at edge rusher, while Larry Ogunjobi and multiple draft picks replenish the interior of the defensive line. First-round pick Maxwell Hairston replaces Rasul Douglas at cornerback, while Josh Palmer and Elijah Moore take the spots of Amari Cooper and Mack Hollins on the receiving corps.
We’re going to take a look at the Bills’ 2024 season and the rest of their offseason moves before getting into their track record in NFL futures over the last five years. After that, you can find the odds available at top sportsbooks for their 2025 win total along with Super Bowl and playoff odds as well as key player props to know. Finally, we’ll take a look at the pros and cons of betting the Bills in 2025 and give out our best bets.
2024 Buffalo Bills season review
- Regular season: 13-4 (AFC East champions)
- Playoffs: Lost AFC Championship Game at Chiefs 32-29
- Tied most wins in a season in team history including playoffs (15)
- Most regular season wins (61) in a five-season span without Super Bowl trip all-time
- Only team since 1960 to go entire regular season and postseason with losing turnover battle
2025 Buffalo Bills offseason review
| QB | |||
| RB | |||
| WR | Amari Cooper, Mack Hollins | Josh Palmer, Elijah Moore | Kaden Prather (7) |
| TE | Quintin Morris | Jackson Hawes (5) | |
| OL | Will Clapp | Kendrick Green | Chase Lundt (6) |
| DL | Jordan Phillips, Quinton Jefferson, Austin Johnson | Larry Ogunjobi | T.J. Sanders (2), Deone Walker (4) |
| EDGE | Von Miller, Casey Toohill, Dawuane Smoot | Joey Bosa, Michael Hoecht | Landon Jackson (3) |
| LB | Shaq Thompson | ||
| CB | Rasul Douglas, Kaiir Elam | Tre’Davious White, Dane Jackson | Maxwell Hairston (1), Jordan Hancock (5), Dorian Strong (6) |
| S | Darrick Forrest | ||
| STAFF | Matthew Smiley (ST) | Chris Tabor (ST) |
Five-year futures odds and trends
| 2024 | +1600 | 10 | Over | 13 | L, AFC Championship |
| 2023 | +900 | 10.5 | Over | 11 | L, Divisional round |
| 2022 | +600 | 11.5 | Over | 13 | L, Divisional round |
| 2021 | +1100 | 11.5 | Under | 11 | L, Divisional round |
| 2020 | +3000 | 9 | Over | 13 | L, AFC Championship |
Historical betting data via Pro-Football-Reference.
2025 Buffalo Bills futures odds
| Go Over win total | 11.5 (-175) | 12.5 (+105) | 12.5 (+125) | 11.5 (-165) |
| Go Under win total | 11.5 (+145) | 12.5 (-125) | 12.5 (-150) | 11.5 (+140) |
| Win Super Bowl | +700 | +625 | +650 | +700 |
| Win AFC | +360 | +300 | +350 | +350 |
| Win AFC East | -275 | -330 | -280 | -280 |
| Make playoffs | -750 | -800 | -750 | -850 |
| Miss playoffs | +525 | +550 | +500 | +540 |
| Win No. 1 seed | +275 | +200 | +190 | +250 |
Odds subject to change.
2025 Josh Allen props
| MVP | +600 | +600 | +550 | +600 |
| Offensive POY | +3500 | +3500 | +4000 | +6000 |
| Most pass yards | +1600 | +1500 | +1500 | |
| Pass yards O/U | 3750.5 | 3800.5 | 3750.5 | 3775.5 |
| Pass TDs O/U | 27.5 | 26.5 | 27.5 | 27.5 |
| Rush yards O/U | 500.5 | 475.5 | 500.5 | 500.5 |
| Rush TDs O/U | 10.5 | 10.5 | 10.5 | 10.5 |
Odds subject to change.
Reasons to back the Bills
Buffalo became the first team since the 1990-94 San Francisco 49ers to lead the league in points per game while also allowing the fewest points per game over a five-year stretch. The Bills, behind Allen’s rise to superstardom, have scored 29.1 points per game over the last half-decade while allowing just 19.6 points per game thanks to McDermott’s aggressive defense. They’ve snapped a 24-year division title drought by winning the AFC East five years in a row.
The Bills feature the reigning MVP at quarterback in Allen and a strong offensive line with experience playing together. Their defensive front added depth in the offseason and while the skill-position talent may not measure up to some other contenders, Buffalo has had no issue scoring points in recent years. The Bills also have a relatively easy schedule that gives them as good a chance as anyone to lead the NFL in wins and finish with the No. 1 seed in the AFC.
Reasons to fade the Bills
While the long-term data is impressive, the Bills defense finished outside of the top 10 in scoring last year for the first time since 2020. Hairston has a chance to be a difference-maker as a rookie but as a late first-round pick, the odds are against him making a massive impact. Buffalo’s free agency moves prior to the draft may amount to no more than shuffling similar players around, especially if Bosa can’t stay healthy (and it’s not a good sign he’s already managing a calf injury).
One key negative for the Bills is expected turnover regression. Buffalo’s eight turnovers were tied for the fewest of any team in the Super Bowl era, while the Bills’ turnover margin was the best of any team since 2012. If Allen’s 1.2% interception rate isn’t sustainable or if the durable signal-caller is forced to miss time, the offense may find itself in more competitive games than expected.
How to bet the Bills in 2025
- AFC No. 1 seed +275 (BetMGM)
- Josh Allen Under 3775.5 passing yards (FanDuel)
If leaning into a positive outcome for the Bills, I would take advantage of the scheduling edge they have over the other top contenders in the AFC and back them to be the No. 1 seed in the conference. We’re giving up some value by playing this market rather than taking them to win the AFC outright, but I am willing to do so after they’ve continued to run into a brick wall when facing the Chiefs and Bengals in the postseason.
I also like backing Allen to finish Under his passing total with no significant upgrades to his passing-game weapons. We saw the Bills play more ball control last year, which led to the offense finishing 26th in total pass attempts while Allen had his lowest passing total since 2019. He failed to top this line of 3775.5 even with playing 17 games and being named league MVP, so why would the formula change for Buffalo? I’d be surprised if he got near 4,000 yards with the Bills favored in every game even if he’s again able to stay healthy the entire season.
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Author: R.J. White
July 20, 2025 | 2:36 pm
