How to bet the Patriots in 2025: Super Bowl odds, win total, props, best bets for New England

Perhaps no team has felt the loss of two long-time fixtures at quarterback and head coach more than the New England Patriots. After nearly two decades of having Tom Brady and Bill Belichick capture six Super Bowl titles and build one of the league’s modern dynasties, the Patriots have made the playoffs just once since Brady left the franchise after the 2019 season. Belichick exited after the 2023 campaign. New England went with former linebacker Jerod Mayo as its head coach for the 2024 season but he was let go after a disappointing 4-13 campaign. The Patriots now turn to another former linebacker in Mike Vrabel for the top job.

However, the most important and intriguing player for the Patriots in the 2025 NFL season will be second-year quarterback Drake Maye. Maye was taken No. 3 overall in the 2024 NFL Draft behind Caleb Williams and Jayden Daniels, but did not start right away like his counterparts. He ultimately played in 13 games, throwing 15 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. While Maye did struggle, a lot of the blame can fall on an inexperienced supporting cast lacking top-end talent to help a developing quarterback.

On that front, the Patriots went to work this offseason in a big way, adding three receivers to the mix in veterans Stefon Diggs and Mack Hollins plus third-round pick Kyle Williams, while bringing in new starters at both tackle positions (including No. 4 overall pick Will Campbell) and center. The defense added four free agents with average annual values above $10 million, including $104 million man Milton Williams up front. Tasked with making it all work is former Patriots linebacker Mike Vrabel, who went 54-45 in seven years as head coach of the Titans while often exceeding expectations on a week-to-week and even year-to-year basis.

We’re going to take a quick look at the Patriots’ 2024 season and the rest of their offseason moves before getting into their track record in NFL futures over the last five years. After that, you can find the odds available at top sportsbooks for their 2025 win total along with Super Bowl and playoff odds as well as key player props to know. Finally, we’ll take a look at the pros and cons of betting on the Patriots in 2025 and give out our best bets.

2024 New England Patriots season review

• Regular season: 4-13 (Last, AFC East)
• Playoffs: Missed
• Longest playoff drought (three seasons) since seven-year drought from 1987-93
• Back-to-back seasons with 13+ losses for first time in franchise history
• Drake Maye: Fifth-highest completion percentage by rookie all-time (min. 200 attempts)

2025 New England Patriots offseason review

Five-year futures odds and trends

Historical betting data via Pro-Football-Reference.

2025 New England Patriots futures odds

Odds subject to change.

2025 Drake Maye props

Odds subject to change.

Reasons to back the Patriots

Two years ago, the Patriots were transitioning away from Bill Belichick as steward of the franchise and turning the page on Mac Jones at quarterback. Now, they have one of the better QB-coach duos in the league in Drake Maye and Mike Vrabel. The former played well in a bad situation last year, and the latter has shown the ability to maximize wins in his coaching career despite featuring Marcus Mariota, Ryan Tannehill and Will Levis at quarterback.

These Patriots get to play one of the easiest schedules in the league in 2025, facing the Raiders, Titans and Giants in addition to the NFC North and the rest of the AFC East, which should give Vrabel the opportunity to show he still has the magic to pull out close games when needed and outcoach more limited teams on the schedule. It doesn’t take much imagination to picture a 10-win season and playoff berth in Vrabel’s first season if the new-look roster can gel quickly.

Reasons to fade the Patriots

There’s a lot of reason for optimism with the new additions but Diggs is coming off an ACL injury and counting on a third-round pick to make a big impact right away is not reasonable. Hollins is a veteran but isn’t a true No. 2 receiver. The offensive line still hasn’t played a live game together and will need some time to gel, while Maye also has to figure out how to adjust to his new personnel. Vrabel also needs time to transform the culture in the locker room.

The schedule isn’t tough but there are still some spots for trouble for the Patriots. New England has to go on the road against the Cincinnati, Tampa Bay and Baltimore. There’s an early three-game road trip against Buffalo, New Orleans and Tennessee which could cause problems if the Patriots don’t come out of the gate hot. With win totals sitting at 7.5 and 8.5, it seems like there’s a lot of optimism surrounding a team that still has plenty of question marks.

How to bet the Patriots in 2025

• Under 8.5 wins +100 (DraftKings)
• Drake Maye Over 425.5 rushing yards -115 (Caesars)

I’m willing to fade the aggressive projections for the Patriots despite their schedule and back Under for their win total. Josh McDaniels has had a lot of success as an offensive coordinator, but of course much of that was tied to Tom Brady. In seven seasons where McDaniels was a head coach or offensive coordinator, either after Brady’s departure from New England or when he was with other teams, his offenses finished 19th or worse in points scored five times. Getting this Patriots offense even to that mid-range level with the supporting cast around Maye will be a tall task, so the defense is going to need even more improvement to push this team to a winning record. I see more downside for this team than upside, and if that downside comes to pass, I’ll be more interested in playing their optimistic outcomes in 2026 as a post-hype sleeper.

Where Maye should continue to have success is on the ground, especially if the new-look offensive line is still allowing pressure and leaving Maye to scramble rather than force the ball to a set of pass-catchers that is still likely without a reliable No. 1 option. Maye only attempted 338 of the Patriots’ 529 pass attempts last year, which works out to around 64% of the workload. He rushed for 421 yards alongside that workload, which is already right at the line Caesars is offering. If he’s on the field more this year, he should get Over this total unless McDaniels tries to remove his rushing ability from the offense, which would be counterintuitive to the success the market is expecting from this team.

Go to Source
Author: R.J. White
July 22, 2025 | 12:26 pm