Three offseasons ago, the Cleveland Browns made arguably one of the worst decisions in NFL history, a move so notably bad it has its own Wikipedia page. The Deshaun Watson trade sent three first-round picks, one third-round pick and two fourth-round picks to Houston in exchange for a quarterback dealing with multiple sexual assault lawsuits (but who had just avoided a criminal indictment) and gave Watson a fully-guaranteed $230 million deal spanning five years. At the time, Watson had missed the entire 2021 season while dealing with the allegations, and he was eventually suspended for the first 11 games of the 2022 season.
Watson played no more than seven games in each of his three seasons as the Browns’ starting quarterback, due first to the suspension, then to back-to-back seasons cut short due to injury. For $230 million guaranteed, the Browns received a 9-10 record, 177.1 passing yards per game and a 19:12 TD:INT ratio. Now with Watson taking up almost 13% of the team’s cap, the Browns are forced to go cheap to find a 2025 starter amongst a group of Joe Flacco, Kenny Pickett and rookies Dillon Gabriel and Shedeur Sanders.
With that quarterback situation and a defense that went from potentially top-tier in recent years to finishing 27th in points allowed in 2024, it’s no wonder expectations are in the basement for the 2025 Browns. They’re the favorites at DraftKings to have the fewest wins this season for good reason. Sights appear set for the 2026 NFL Draft after Cleveland passed up the opportunity to draft Travis Hunter at No. 2 overall, instead trading down to pick up extra draft capital for the future. Head coach Kevin Stefanski and GM Andrew Berry were signed to extensions prior to the 2024 season, so presumably they will be in charge of rebuilding the team regardless of what happens this year.
We’re going to take a quick look at the Browns’ 2024 season and the rest of their offseason moves before getting into their track record in NFL futures over the last five years. After that, you can find the odds available at top sportsbooks for their 2025 win total along with Super Bowl and playoff odds as well as key player props to know. Finally, we’ll take a look at the pros and cons of betting on the Browns in 2025 and give out our best bets.
2024 Cleveland Browns season review
- Regular season: 3-14 (Last, AFC North)
- Playoffs: Missed
- Deshaun Watson: Tore Achilles in Week 7 and again during rehab process
- Myles Garrett: First player all-time with 14-plus sacks in four straight seasons (active streak)
2025 Cleveland Browns offseason review
| QB | Jameis Winston, Bailey Zappe | Joe Flacco, Kenny Pickett | Dillon Gabriel (3), Shedeur Sanders (5) |
| RB | Nick Chubb, D’Onta Foreman, Nyheim Hines, John Kelly | Quinshon Judkins (2), Dylan Sampson (4) | |
| WR | Elijah Moore, James Proche | Diontae Johnson, DeAndre Carter, Jaelen Gill | |
| TE | Jordan Akins, Geoff Swaim | Harold Fannin (3) | |
| OL | Jedrick Wills, Nick Harris, James Hudson, Hakeem Adeniji, Germain Ifedi, Geron Christian, Michael Dunn | Teven Jenkins, Corenlius Lucas, Jackson Barton, Brady Latham | |
| DL | Dalvin Tomlinson, Maurice Hurst, Michael Dwumfour | Maliek Collins, Ralph Holley | Mason Graham (1) |
| EDGE | James Houston | Joe Tryon-Shoyinka, Julian Okwara | |
| LB | Khaleke Hudson | Jerome Baker | Carson Schwesinger (2) |
| CB | Michael Ford | Anthony Kendall, Nik Needham | |
| S | Juan Thornhill, Rodney McLeod, D’Anthony Bell | Damonte Kazee, Rayshawn Jenkins | |
| STAFF | Ken Dorsey (OC) |
Five-year futures odds and trends
| 2024 | +4000 | 8.5 | Under | 3 | 4th, AFC North |
| 2023 | +3500 | 9.5 | Over | 11 | L, Wild card round |
| 2022 | +3700 | 8.5 | Under | 7 | 4th, AFC North |
| 2021 | +1600 | 10.5 | Under | 8 | 3rd, AFC North |
| 2020 | +5000 | 8.5 | Over | 11 | L, Divisional round |
Historical betting data via Pro-Football-Reference.
2025 Cleveland Browns futures odds
| Go Over win total | 5.5 (+125) | 5.5 (+120) | 5.5 (+115) | 5.5 (+120) |
| Go Under win total | 5.5 (-150) | 5.5 (-140) | 5.5 (-140) | 5.5 (-140) |
| Win Super Bowl | +30000 | +22500 | +30000 | +24000 |
| Win AFC | +12500 | +11000 | +12000 | +12000 |
| Win AFC North | +3000 | +3500 | +3500 | +3300 |
| Make playoffs | +700 | +800 | +850 | +820 |
| Miss playoffs | -1100 | -1400 | -1600 | -1600 |
| Win No. 1 seed | +20000 | +20000 | +30000 | +20000 |
Odds subject to change.
2025 Myles Garrett props
| MVP | +20000 | +20000 | +15000 | +20000 |
| Defensive POY | +700 | +700 | +850 | +750 |
| Sacks O/U | 14.5 | 12.5 |
Odds subject to change.
Reasons to back the Browns
The Browns might not be trying to tank, even if the organization did trade out of the No. 2 pick spot in the past draft. Watson has been so abysmal at the quarterback position that even a slight improvement from Flacco could elevate the offense. Flacco was marvelous in 2023 for the Browns, who went 4-2 over the last six games to make the playoffs. Of course, Sanders could also emerge as a player with a chip on his shoulder out to prove himself after falling to the fifth round. Cleveland’s skill players aren’t terrible and the defense is bound to show some improvement after fading hard in 2024. Garrett could wreak havoc on opposing offensive lines and the secondary has enough playmakers to force turnovers. The playoffs might not be possible given how deep the middle of the AFC is but the Browns could surprise teams early in the season and get to six or seven wins.
Reasons to fade the Browns
Sometimes, you can just tell when a season is going to go south. Flacco might’ve been solid in 2023 but he’s now two years older and didn’t do much last season with the Colts. Pickett, Gabriel and Sanders are all unproven, so there’s no guarantee the Browns get better quarterback play even if Watson is sidelined. While the skill players do have some upside and explosiveness, they won’t do much without a competent passer. The defense is probably somewhere in between the elite unit from 2023 and the dismal one in 2024 but there’s a lot to desire from the defensive line outside of Garrett. The Browns gave up 50 touchdowns last season and it was a fairly even split between rushing and passing, so the entire defensive unit was complicit in the failure.
Quinshon Judkins’ arrest after an alleged domestic violence incident was among the last things this organization needed. The entire environment around the Browns is one of unease, uncertainty and general despair. Even though Cleveland has some stability with general manager Andrew Berry and head coach Kevin Stefanski getting extensions, there’s not much to desire with this franchise.
How to bet the Browns in 2025
- Under 5.5 wins -125 (Caesars)
- Myles Garrett Over 12.5 sacks -115 (Caesars)
The Browns have one of the toughest schedules in the league and probably the toughest through the first six weeks of the year. Even if they avoid an 0-6 start, they’ll probably need two wins against the AFC East and three against the Raiders (road), Titans (home), Bears (road) and Steelers (home) to get to six wins. I like taking the Under on their win total at 5.5 wins without having to lay too much juice, and for anyone thinking about playing the positive case for Cleveland, I would consider just playing their Week 1 money line at home against the Bengals, a win they’ll almost certainly need to reach the Over.
Despite the dismal season for the team, Myles Garrett led the league in tackles for loss while finishing with 14 sacks. In every season where he’s played at least 15 games he’s recorded at least 13.5 sacks, so I believe it’ll take a significant injury for him not to reach that number in 2025. He’s proven durable in recent years, only missing two games over the last four seasons, so it’s a risk I’d be willing to take.
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Author: R.J. White
July 24, 2025 | 12:21 pm
