How to bet the Chiefs in 2025: Super Bowl odds, win total, props, best bets for Kansas City

The list of teams to make five Super Bowls in six years starts and ends with the Kansas City Chiefs, but Super Bowl LIX may have been the most demoralizing defeat in Patrick Mahomes‘ tenure. The Eagles delivered six unanswered scores to start the game, leaving the Chiefs down 34-0 near the end of the third quarter with no answers for Philadelphia’s excellent pass rush. The Chiefs got 11 yards on their first play from scrimmage and no other first downs over the rest of the first half, gaining a total of two yards in the process. It was, in short, a shellacking.

Where do the Chiefs go from here? The major sportsbooks have set the Chiefs’ odds to win the Super Bowl behind not only the team that embarrassed them in last year’s championship but also two teams they have dominated in the AFC playoffs for years, the Ravens and Bills. That amounts to essentially a vote of no confidence from the betting markets, considering how hard to beat Kansas City has been postseason after postseason.

The biggest position of need was made clear in the loss to the Eagles, and the Chiefs threw a two-year, $30 million deal at Jaylon Moore and used their first-round pick on Ohio State’s Josh Simmons in the hopes that one will finally solidify the left tackle slot that has made Mahomes too vulnerable to pressure in recent years. But the offensive line will also have to overcome the loss of one of the best guards in the league over the last decade, as Joe Thuney was dealt this offseason. The new left side of the offensive line will go a long way to determining whether the 2025 Chiefs are a championship contender or a ticking time bomb hoping to avoid a relentless pass rush once again.

We’re going to take a quick look at the Chiefs’ 2024 season and the rest of their offseason moves before getting into their track record in NFL futures over the last five years. After that, you can find the odds available at top sportsbooks for their 2025 win total along with Super Bowl and playoff odds as well as key player props to know. Finally, we’ll take a look at the pros and cons of betting on the Chiefs in 2025 and give out our best bets.

2024 Kansas City Chiefs season review

• Regular season: 15-2 (AFC West champions)
• Playoffs: L, Super Bowl vs. Eagles 40-22
• Franchise-record 15 wins (lost 40-22 vs Eagles in Super Bowl LIX)
• Seven straight conference championship appearances (second-longest streak all-time, 2011-18 Patriots)
• First team ever to reach five Super Bowls in six-season span
• Fourth team to make three straight Super Bowls (1971-73 Dolphins, 1990-93 Bills, 2016-18 Patriots)
• 11-0 in one-score games (tied most wins all-time, 2022 Vikings) 

2025 Kansas City Chiefs offseason review

Five-year futures odds and trends

Historical betting data via Pro-Football-Reference.

2025 Kansas City Chiefs futures odds

Odds subject to change.

2025 Patrick Mahomes props

Odds subject to change.

Reasons to back the Chiefs

Even though the Chiefs were shaky during the regular season with 11 wins coming by one possession, they were able to make clutch plays down the stretch. They still have one of the top defensive units and a quarterback who has passed every test early his career. Mahomes appears to have taken a slight step back, and contenders led by quarterbacks Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson and Joe Burrow have closed the gap. However, Burrow is the only active AFC quarterback to beat Mahomes in the playoffs. The Chiefs might have been going through the motions after routinely finding ways to win but will likely be more prepared and dialed in this season. If Kansas City’s receivers stay healthy and Mahomes is given free reign to throw it all over the park, there’s not a lot opposing defenses can do. The Chiefs have a proven track record of winning in the postseason under this coach-quarterback combination and even a rough Super Bowl result doesn’t change their outlook for 2025. Even if there is a step back, it’s hard to imagine the Chiefs not at least being in the contender’s circle.

Reasons to fade the Chiefs

The Chiefs do have some issues on the offensive line, and there’s going to be some regression to the mean. Kansas City went 12-0 in one-score games if you include the playoff victory over the Bills, which is not sustainable even if you have a storied quarterback and head coach. The division is going to be better with the Chargers and Broncos returning key players and the Raiders revamping their entire operation. The Chiefs do have a tough schedule to begin the season, with four of the first six games coming against playoff teams from a year ago. Perhaps the league has caught up and Kansas City has regressed, which is a recipe for what seemed like a dynasty to be reduced to just another contender. 

There are signs some top players, like Chris Jones and Travis Kelce, have lost a step. Jones entered 2024 with 26 sacks over the previous two seasons before turning in a five-sack campaign. Kelce saw his streak of 1,000-yard seasons come to an end in 2023 and has combined for eight touchdown receptions over the last two seasons. Age is a factor with the star tight end, who will turn 36 in October. If these players continue declining and the Chiefs can’t find other contributors, it’ll be tough for Kansas City to routinely pull out wins against an improving conference.

How to bet the Chiefs in 2025

• Under 11.5 wins -120 (BetMGM)
• Patrick Mahomes Over 27.5 TDs -110 (DraftKings)

My initial play on the Chiefs was to hammer the division title as a price we typically haven’t been given during this incredible run of nine straight AFC West titles. But after digging into the other teams in the division, I’m not sure even -115 is enough value to back Kansas City. The key is to throw last year’s record, which was built off the back of going undefeated in 11 one-score games, out the window and just consider what this team has been the last two years, which has been very good but not necessarily elite during the regular season despite having one of the best defenses in football. The upside is always there for the Chiefs to run the table with Patrick Mahomes at quarterback, but I think it’s more likely this team tops out at 10-11 wins and saves itself for the playoffs.

I do think we’re getting good value on Mahomes to throw at least 28 touchdowns this year after he managed 26 last year and 27 the year prior while sitting out the final game each season. I’m not sure the Chiefs will be afforded that luxury this season with how competitive I expect the division will be, so we could already be getting one extra game to get this over the total. Mahomes will also have a better group of receivers in place than he has the last two years, with Rashee Rice and Marquise Brown healthy and Xavier Worthy emerging as a more consistent option in the second half and the playoffs, as he averaged 27.3 yards per game through Week 10 and didn’t have a game under 40 yards (throwing out the brief Week 18 appearance) the rest of the way. If the defense takes any sort of step back from their elite status of the last two years, that also puts more pressure on Mahomes to throw more in the second half and gives him a much better chance of returning to the touchdown rates he had in his first five seasons as a starter.

Go to Source
Author: R.J. White
July 27, 2025 | 4:56 pm