NFL season win totals are some of the most fun action to wager on — it’s a season-long gambit with week-to-week intensity because of how much every game matters for the final season record. With the explosion of legalized sports gambling, win totals have been out for a while now, but we can’t really get crystallized and concrete numbers until the NFL schedule is released.
With the schedule out and every angle of the 2024 NFL season under full scrutiny, we can finally get down to the business of betting season-long win totals. I’ll revisit these in August before the season begins but we’ll try and find some value earlier in the offseason.
I’m using DraftKings for win totals for ease of use but you should absolutely shop around and get the best number, so let’s break them down division by division. Check the rest of the divisions here as they’re released:
AFC East | AFC North | AFC South | AFC West
NFC East | NFC North | NFC South | NFC West
Before we dive in, a couple quick notes. One, we’re picking every team but not betting every team. Two, any best bets will be denoted in bold, etc. Three, you should probably avoid actually betting on overs at this point because of how quickly injuries can flip the fortunes of NFL teams.
Let’s get to it.
AFC West
Over 11.5 (-110) / Under 11.5 (-110)
Pretty simple rule here: Bet against Andy Reid in Kansas City at your own peril. Last year was the first time since taking over in K.C. that Big Red managed to actually go UNDER his win total, and he did it by just a half-game, winning 11 games with some inexplicable losses (at home on Christmas to the Raiders, at home to start the season as defending champs) and with the worst offense the Chiefs have had since he took over (I think). They lost L’Jarius Sneed, but beefed up the receiving corps by adding Marquise Brown in free agency and Xavier Worthy in the first round of the draft. Both guys bring a much-needed element of speed to the roster, with the Chiefs largely unable to stretch the field since Tyreek Hill was traded to Miami. I expect a bounce-back season from this offense. Even though the division is better with Jim Harbaugh taking over for Brandon Staley and the Chiefs have a tough, first-place schedule with everyone gunning to dethrone their chance at a three-peat, this is a pretty clear overlook for me. There’s no need to bet it now, though, as I highly doubt we see the actual number creep up.
Pick: Chiefs over 11.5 (-110)
Over 8.5 (-155) / Under 8.5 (+130)
How much of an upgrade is Jim Harbaugh over Staley in Los Angeles? I think everyone is largely underselling how big a difference it will be. The last time Jim joined an NFL team he warranted a Grantland (!) article from Bill Barnwell titled “The NFL’s Most Valuable Person.” This was partially rooted in no salary cap for coaches, but Harbaugh is THAT good of a coach. He just wins everywhere he goes. The Chargers are a good team, too, even though the roster certainly had its holes to handle this offseason. But Harbaugh decided to let the defense lie, keeping Khalil Mack and Joey Bosa and taking the cap hits on the offensive side of things by trading Keenan Allen and releasing Mike Williams and parting ways with Austin Ekeler. This will be a run-heavy, deep-shot offense that will likely reduce Justin Herbert’s counting stats while upping his efficiency. Don’t sleep on how good Ladd McConkey might be or what Harbs can do for someone like Quentin Johnston in terms of “salvaging” (he’s been in the league one year, c’mon) his career. There is zero chance I’d look under here ever, and would actually be interested in the over at this price if it were closer to the season.
Pick: Chargers over 8.5 (-155)
Las Vegas Raiders
Over 6.5 (-135) / Under 6.5 (+115)
The Raiders possess some of the biggest question marks in the NFL. What will an interim coach like Antonio Pierce look like in the full-time role? Can Gardner Minshew win as a starter again? Will Minshew even beat out Aidan O’Connell? What will happen with Brock Bowers and Michael Mayer? Is Luke Getsy the guy you want running your offense? There’s more than enough here to be bullish on that side of the ball if the OC and QB click. Defensively, the Raiders were a top-10 team last year, but repeating that feels like a tall task, even if Pierce’s intelligence as a coach and communicator on that side of the ball ultimately carries over. They underperformed their point differential last year and that was with a coach firing midseason. I’d be inclined to lean under here, but these numbers are boosted for a reason: The schedule is fairly manageable, although the division is SO tough and the NFC South might be better this year as well. If they’re the same team over a full season they were down the stretch under Pierce they’ll find a way to seven wins. I’m just a little hesitant to pull the trigger at that price.
Lean: Raiders under 6.5 (+115)
Over 5.5 (-135) / Under 5.5 (+115)
To Bo Nix or not to Bo Nix? That is the question. Sean Payton pulled the trigger on the long-time college QB with the 12th overall pick in the draft and he’s going to start Week 1. Or he SHOULD … if Nix is on the bench when the season begins something has gone horribly, horribly wrong for the Broncos and this offense. I saw someone point out Payton is recreating the 2017 Saints offense — or at least trying to — with the 2024 Broncos, only doing a very poor man’s version of it. If he can coach up the offensive line, then maybe it works out, but that’s one of the massive differences in those squads. Also … no Alvin Kamara! He was pretty good! So was Marshon Lattimore, one of their two first-round picks then and while Patrick Surtain II is exceptional, I’m not sure this defense suddenly snaps into place the way the 2017 Saints team did. Remember, New Orleans went 7-9 three straight years before breaking out as a “winning” team (and not just a great offense) in 2017. The Broncos get three of their first four on the road, negating the Mile High Early Season Advantage (patent pending) and close with the Chargers, Bengals and Chiefs after a late bye. I’m still high on Payton as a play-caller and coach, though, so I’m going to lean toward the over here but will wait and see what happens, similar to the Raiders. I think you could easily flip flop on those two teams and their totals based on the head-to-heads.
Lean: Broncos Over 5.5 (-135)
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Author: Will Brinson
May 23, 2024 | 10:10 am
