2024 Week 1 NFL picks, odds, best bets from proven model: This 5-way football parlay pays 25-1

The Week 1 NFL schedule is a bettor’s dream. It’s a star-studded 16-game slate, which begins with Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, and the Kansas City Chiefs hosting Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens on Thursday, Sept. 5. The action continues with Packers vs. Eagles in Brazil on Friday, followed by 13 games on Sunday, including Steelers vs. Falcons, Cowboys vs. Browns, and Rams vs. Lions. The Week 1 NFL schedule does not feature any double-digit favorites, with Bengals (-9) vs. Patriots the largest among the Week 1 NFL spreads.

New England lost two of its final 10 games last season, but the Patriots are 6-2 against the spread in their past eight meetings with the Bengals. Should your Week 1 NFL picks include backing the Patriots to cover as NFL underdogs, or should your NFL parlay picks target a divisional matchup like Texans vs. Colts (+1.5) or Raiders vs. Chargers (-3)? Before you make any Week 1 NFL picks or NFL parlays, be sure to see the NFL predictions and betting advice from SportsLine’s proven computer model.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 1 of the 2024 NFL season on an incredible 185-129 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. It is also on a 39-21 roll on top-rated NFL picks since Week 7 of last season.

The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94% of CBS Sports Football Pick’em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now, the model has scoured the Week 1 NFL odds and locked in five confident NFL best bets. If you successfully parlay its picks, you’d be looking at a massive payout of around 25-1. You can only see the model’s Week 1 NFL picks at SportsLine.

Top Week 1 NFL picks

After simulating every game 10,000 times, the model is high on the Detroit Lions (-3.5) to cover at home against the Los Angeles Rams. The Lions had one of the NFL’s most explosive offenses in 2023, averaging 394.8 yards per game, which ranked third in the league. Quarterback Jared Goff threw for 4,575 yards and 30 touchdowns last season, a big reason why Detroit is 8-1 in its past nine games at home. 

The Lions have also been profitable for bettors early in the season. In fact, Detroit is 7-1 against the spread in its last eight games in September and the Lions are 5-1 ATS in their past six games against an opponent from the NFC. The Rams have lost four of their last five road games against Detroit, a trend the model sees continuing in Week 1. SportsLine’s model projects the Lions to score more than 30 points against Los Angeles, a big reason why Detroit covers the spread in almost 60% of simulations. See which other NFL parlay picks to make here.

How to make Week 1 NFL parlays

The model also jumped on four other NFL matchups where it says the line is way off, including a home favorite that covers the spread in almost 70% of simulations. You can only see the model’s NFL Week 1 best bets and parlay at SportsLine. 

What are the model’s top Week 1 NFL picks, and which other NFL matchups should you target for a strong 25-1 payout? Visit SportsLine now to see the Week 1 NFL best bets from a model on a 185-129 run on top-rated picks, and find out.