Three offseasons ago, the Cleveland Browns made arguably one of the worst decisions in NFL history, a move so notably bad it has its own Wikipedia page. The Deshaun Watson trade sent three first-round picks, one third-round pick and two fourth-round picks to Houston in exchange for a quarterback dealing with multiple sexual assault lawsuits (but who had just avoided a criminal indictment) and gave Watson a fully-guaranteed $230 million deal spanning five years. At the time, Watson had missed the entire 2021 season while dealing with the allegations, and he was eventually suspended for the first 11 games of the 2022 season.
Watson played no more than seven games in each of his three seasons as the Browns’ starting quarterback, due first to the suspension, then to back-to-back seasons cut short due to injury. For $230 million guaranteed, the Browns received a 9-10 record, 177.1 passing yards per game and a 19:12 TD:INT ratio. Now with Watson taking up almost 13% of the team’s cap, the Browns are forced to go cheap to find a 2025 starter amongst a group of Joe Flacco, Kenny Pickett and rookies Dillon Gabriel and Shedeur Sanders.
With that quarterback situation and a defense that went from potentially top-tier in recent years to finishing 27th in points allowed in 2024, it’s no wonder expectations are in the basement for the 2025 Browns. They’re the favorites at DraftKings to have the fewest wins this season for good reason. Sights appear set for the 2026 NFL Draft after Cleveland passed up the opportunity to draft Travis Hunter at No. 2 overall, instead trading down to pick up extra draft capital for the future. Head coach Kevin Stefanski and GM Andrew Berry were signed to extensions prior to the 2024 season, so presumably they will be in charge of rebuilding the team regardless of what happens this year.
We’re going to take a quick look at the Browns’ 2024 season and the rest of their offseason moves before getting into their track record in NFL futures over the last five years. After that, you can find the odds available at top sportsbooks for their 2025 win total along with Super Bowl and playoff odds as well as key player props to know. Finally, we’ll take a look at the pros and cons of betting on the Browns in 2025 and give out our best bets.
2024 Cleveland Browns season review
- Regular season: 3-14 (Last, AFC North)
- Playoffs: Missed
- Deshaun Watson: Tore Achilles in Week 7 and again during rehab process
- Myles Garrett: First player all-time with 14-plus sacks in four straight seasons (active streak)
2025 Cleveland Browns offseason review
| QB | Jameis Winston, Bailey Zappe | Joe Flacco, Kenny Pickett | Dillon Gabriel (3), Shedeur Sanders (5) |
| RB | Nick Chubb, D’Onta Foreman, Nyheim Hines, John Kelly | Quinshon Judkins (2), Dylan Sampson (4) | |
| WR | Elijah Moore, James Proche | Diontae Johnson, DeAndre Carter, Jaelen Gill | |
| TE | Jordan Akins, Geoff Swaim | Harold Fannin (3) | |
| OL | Jedrick Wills, Nick Harris, James Hudson, Hakeem Adeniji, Germain Ifedi, Geron Christian, Michael Dunn | Teven Jenkins, Corenlius Lucas, Jackson Barton, Brady Latham | |
| DL | Dalvin Tomlinson, Maurice Hurst, Michael Dwumfour | Maliek Collins, Ralph Holley | Mason Graham (1) |
| EDGE | James Houston | Joe Tryon-Shoyinka, Julian Okwara | |
| LB | Khaleke Hudson | Jerome Baker | Carson Schwesinger (2) |
| CB | Michael Ford | Anthony Kendall, Nik Needham | |
| S | Juan Thornhill, Rodney McLeod, D’Anthony Bell | Damonte Kazee, Rayshawn Jenkins | |
| STAFF | Ken Dorsey (OC) |
Five-year futures odds and trends
| 2024 | +4000 | 8.5 | Under | 3 | 4th, AFC North |
| 2023 | +3500 | 9.5 | Over | 11 | L, Wild card round |
| 2022 | +3700 | 8.5 | Under | 7 | 4th, AFC North |
| 2021 | +1600 | 10.5 | Under | 8 | 3rd, AFC North |
| 2020 | +5000 | 8.5 | Over | 11 | L, Divisional round |
Historical betting data via Pro-Football-Reference.
2025 Cleveland Browns futures odds
| Go Over win total | 9.5 (-150) | 10.5 (+135) | 9.5 (-150) | 9.5 (-120) |
| Go Under win total | 9.5 (+125) | 10.5 (-160) | 9.5 (+125) | 9.5 (+100) |
| Win Super Bowl | +2000 | +1800 | +2000 | +2100 |
| Win AFC | +1000 | +900 | +950 | +1000 |
| Win AFC North | +220 | +230 | +230 | +220 |
| Make playoffs | -150 | -165 | -160 | -158 |
| Miss playoffs | +125 | +135 | +130 | +128 |
| Win No. 1 seed | +950 | +900 | +1300 | +1100 |
Odds subject to change.
2025 Myles Garrett props
| MVP | +20000 | +20000 | +15000 | +20000 |
| Defensive POY | +700 | +700 | +850 | +700 |
| Sacks O/U | 14.5 | 12.5 | 14.25 |
Odds subject to change.
Reasons to back the Browns
Expectations for this team are in the toilet, so it wouldn’t take more than a lucky break or two to cash Over win total tickets. If Joe Flacco starts at quarterback, he’s already proven he can have success in Kevan Stefanski’s offense, playing so well in five games in 2023 that he won the Comeback Player of the Year Award as the Browns went 4-1 and made a run into the playoffs. Flacco also posted passer ratings above 90 in consecutive seasons for the first time in his career over the last two years, so he appears to be aging as gracefully as possible at the position.
The Browns defense still features one of the best players in football, and it should get juiced by the addition of Mason Graham up front and Carson Schwesinger at linebacker. If the defensive front can take the pressure off the secondary, this Browns team could win some games in the way it has become accustomed, leaning on the run game and defense to beat up opponents and surprise some teams not ready for its physicality.
Reasons to fade the Browns
There’s no guarantee Flacco will be the starter in Week 1 and it’s less likely he’s starting down the stretch as the Browns evaluate their rookie quarterbacks and prepare to potentially draft a new franchise signal-caller in 2026. Should the Browns not be worried about winning games in the second half of the year, it’ll be tough to get over their win total. Any hope of a hot start is tempered by a schedule that features a home matchup against the Bengals in Week 1 and then five straight matchups against playoff teams, with only one at home.
Aside from the mess at quarterback, there isn’t much proven talent on offense in general with the days of Nick Chubb rumbling for big gains and Amari Cooper being a reliable No.1 receiver a thing of the past. The Browns will have to compete with depth back Jerome Ford and two rookies at running back, while the situation at receiver is only slightly better with Jerry Jeudy and Cedric Tillman atop the depth chart. Even if the defense is able to rebound from a down season, it’s an open question how Kevin Stefanski is going to get points out of the offense.
How to bet the Browns in 2025
- Under 5.5 wins -125 (Caesars)
- Myles Garrett Over 12.5 sacks -115 (Caesars)
The Browns have one of the toughest schedules in the league and probably the toughest through the first six weeks of the year. Even if they avoid an 0-6 start, they’ll probably need two wins against the AFC East and three against the Raiders (road), Titans (home), Bears (road) and Steelers (home) to get to six wins. I like taking the Under on their win total at 5.5 wins without having to lay too much juice, and for anyone thinking about playing the positive case for Cleveland, I would consider just playing their Week 1 money line at home against the Bengals, a win they’ll almost certainly need to reach the Over.
Despite the dismal season for the team, Myles Garrett led the league in tackles for loss while finishing with 14 sacks. In every season where he’s played at least 15 games he’s recorded at least 13.5 sacks, so I believe it’ll take a significant injury for him not to reach that number in 2025. He’s proven durable in recent years, only missing two games over the last four seasons, so it’s a risk I’d be willing to take.
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Author: R.J. White
June 24, 2025 | 9:55 am
