The mighty have fallen in Foxborough. For the better part of this quarter century, the New England Patriots had the NFL in a headlock, winning a total of six Super Bowls since 2001, and were perennially atop the power rankings as the team to beat. Despite all of those banners hanging above Gillette Stadium and the two decades of dominance that they represent, the more recent run for the Patriots has been lean.
Since Tom Brady departed following the 2019 season, the club is 33-51 and has made the playoffs just once in those five years. Moreover, the head coaching position has become a turnstile. After Bill Belichick and the organization mutually parted ways after a 4-13 season in 2023, the keys were handed over to then linebackers coach Jerod Mayo to run the franchise. Despite the change atop the head coaching masthead, another 4-13 campaign was endured by New England and resulted in a one-and-done run for Mayo.
The Patriots have since hired Mike Vrabel, who’ll be the Patriots’ third head coach in as many seasons. His arrival — along with the ascent of second-year quarterback Drake Maye — does provide promise for a brighter tomorrow at 1 Patriots Place, and it can’t come any sooner for Robert Kraft.
New England’s owner admitted at Fanatics Fest this weekend that “the last two years were the worst of my 31 years of ownership.” And he’s not wrong.
Since Kraft took full control of the Patriots back in 1994, the club has only had six seasons of under .500 football, and three of which have come in the last three seasons.
Worst seasons of Kraft’s Patriots ownership
2024 | 4-13 | Last |
2023 | 4-13 | Last |
2022 | 8-9 | Third of four |
2020 | 7-9 | Third of four |
2000 | 5-11 | Last |
1995 | 6-10 | Fourth of five |
As you can see, the post-Brady era has hit the organization hard in general, but these last two seasons have been by far the worst of Kraft’s ownership of the franchise.
This offseason, the organization did make tremendous strides in hopes of turning the tide. On top of bringing in Vrabel as head coach, they also spent big in free agency and came away with a 2025 draft class that has largely been well-received by analysts. Of course, they also seem to have found their franchise cornerstone under center in Maye, who was the No. 3 pick at the 2024 NFL Draft.
All that has the arrow pointing up for the Patriots, but what does a successful season actually look like for them in 2025?
2025 Patriots betting outlook
One way for us to find a baseline of what success would be for New England in 2025 is to look at where the oddsmakers have them in various futures markets. Currently, they are favored to go over their 7.5 win total for the season at FanDuel Sportsbook, which means they are expected to double their win total from 2024. However, they are +152 to make the playoffs, which ranks as the ninth-highest among AFC teams.
7.5 wins | Over -160, Under +135 |
To Make Playoffs | Yes (+152) |
To Miss Playoffs | Yes (-188) |
AFC East winner | +500 (second highest) |
| AFC Championship winner | +3200 (ninth highest) |
| Super Bowl LX winner | +6500 (11th lowest) |
So, judging by these odds, the Patriots going 8-9 over the regular season, finishing second in the AFC East, and vying for a playoff spot is about where the expectation should be set for New England as they look towards 2025. Is another under .500 season — albeit doubling your win total — the most exciting step? No, but it’s going in the right direction.
Other factors for Patriots to have successful 2025
Of course, wins and losses are the most important aspect to a given season, but as we dive a bit deeper into how the Patriots’ season could unfold, there are other factors that could warrant calling 2025 a success.
Drake Maye firmly establishes himself as franchise QB
Drake Maye showed flashes of his potential over his rookie season, but those flashes will need to burn brighter and more consistently in Year 2. If he does that, he’ll completely establish himself as the franchise’s cornerstone under center for the foreseeable future. Maye’s talent alone gives him an opportunity to one day become a top-10 quarterback in the league, but New England did a strong job this offseason surrounding him with talent to give him the best chance of reaching that potential. The club revamped the offensive line, specifically at tackle, with first-round pick Will Campbell and free agent signee Morgan Moses. They also added wideout Stefon Diggs in free agency to give him a top-tier target in the passing game. That sets the stage quite nicely for Maye to hit new heights this season. If he doesn’t, that’s maybe the scariest possible outcome for a franchise starved for consistency and high-caliber play at quarterback.
Mike Vrabel’s culture sets in
Yes, Mike Vrabel has history with the organization, just like Jerod Mayo did when he ascended to head coach last year, but these two are entirely different. Mayo was a first-time head coach before ever even having a coordinator title, so he had the difficult task of learning on the job. Ultimately, what was part of his demise was in inability to discover an identity for his team, and that’s what Vrabel will now try to establish. Unlike Mayo, Vrabel has a robust résumé. He was a head coach in the NFL before with the Tennessee Titans and even won Coach of the Year in 2021. He has a system and a culture ready to implement, and the early look of things during OTAs and minicamp does seem to indicate they are being absorbed. If Vrabel can establish a culture and an identity with the Patriots, it’ll go a long way in ensuring he’ll be on the job for the long haul.
Multiple rookies emerge
One of the biggest reasons why the Patriots have fallen so far is their inability to find playmakers at the NFL Draft. You can probably count on one hand the number of impact/cornerstone players New England has acquired via the draft since 2020. Even the 2024 class doesn’t seem like it’s poised to give much to the organization outside of Maye, who was a layup selection at No. 3 overall. For this franchise to turn things around, they need to be able to draft and develop.
This offseason, they did seem to come away from the NFL Draft with several intriguing prospects, including first-rounder Will Campbell and Day 2 picks like running back Tre’Veyon Henderson, wideout Kyle Williams, and interior lineman Jared Wilson. New England will need to see multiple figures from this draft emerge in Year 1 to help give them a sustainable foundation that doesn’t require them to overhaul their roster via free agency like they did this offseason.
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Author: Tyler Sullivan
June 25, 2025 | 12:40 pm
