The NFC South has largely been a punchline over the last half-decade or so. Typically, one team has marginally risen above the rest, while the others have been unable to truly contend for a wild-card position. However, with young quarterbacks sprouting up across the division, it could bloom into a more competitive NFC South overall. But how quickly will these teams be able to get their young signal-callers up and running and kick this division into hyperdrive?
Of course, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are the class of the division and are looking to extend their streak of winning the NFC South to five in 2025. They sport an elite offense with veteran Baker Mayfield at the helm and an array of talent at the skill positions, but they did lose offensive coordinator Liam Coen this offseason.
Meanwhile, it’s the Carolina Panthers, Atlanta Falcons and New Orleans Saints that all have questions at quarterback to varying degrees. After a topsy-turvy start to his career, Bryce Young was able to somewhat reestablish himself as QB1 at the tail end of last year. As for the Falcons, they are handing over the keys to the offense to Michael Penix Jr., who is entering his second season in the league and his first as the full-time starter. The Saints saw Derek Carr retire this offseason, which now thrusts second-round rookie Tyler Shough into the fray.
That gives this division quite a bit of variance as we try to project what the 2025 campaign may look like. Below, we’re going to take a glass-half-full approach with each of these clubs and determine one reason why they could end up as NFC South champions by the time the regular season ends.
All NFL odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Continues to have a top-five offense in the NFL.
For the fourth season in a row, the Buccaneers will have a new offensive coordinator. Josh Grizzard was promoted to OC this offseason after previously serving as Tampa Bay’s pass game coordinator in 2024 after Liam Coen departed for the Jacksonville Jaguars coaching gig. The Bucs have been able to absorb the blow of losing their offensive figurehead on the coaching staff before, and will need to do so again to keep their grip on the NFC South crown. In 2024, Tampa Bay was a top-five offense, ranking third in the league in total yards per game (399.5) and fourth in points per game (29.5). Even with another change at OC, the Buccaneers are well-positioned to maintain their standing as an elite offense. The club retained Chris Godwin in free agency, still has Mike Evans entrenched as the top option, and has emerging talent across the skill positions. They drafted wideout Emeka Egbuka in the first round of the NFL Draft and saw both tight end Cade Otton and running back Bucky Irving break out in 2024. So long as this group can stay healthy, they have the firepower to go toe to toe with any offense in the NFL, thus giving them a strong lane toward another NFC South title.
- Projected O/U win total: 9.5 (Over +100, Under -120)
- Our prediction: 10-7
Atlanta Falcons
Michael Penix Jr. continues to pass the eye test.
The Falcons turned over the offense (and the franchise) to Penix late last season, and the 2024 first-round pick is now entering his first season as the full-time starter. In the brief window (three starts) that we saw Penix under center for Atlanta, the numbers didn’t exactly blow you away. Over that stretch, he completed just 58% of his passes with a 78.6 passer rating and threw for just as many interceptions (three) as he did touchdowns. Those numbers don’t exactly tell the entire story. By simply looking at that output, you’d probably say that Penix is more likely to flame out than become a bona fide starter in the league. When actually watching him play, however, he did flash his potential much more than you’d think and seemed to pass the eye test as someone who can produce at a much higher level. That passing of the eye test will need to bear out in 2025 and produce more prolific numbers for Penix in 2025, especially if the Falcons aim to leapfrog over the Bucs and win the division.
- Projected O/U win total: 7.5 (Over -130, Under +110)
- Our prediction: 8-9
Carolina Panthers
Bryce Young carries over momentum from solid 2024 finish.
Similar to the Falcons, the Panthers’ chances of winning the NFC South rest on the shoulders of their young quarterback. Young, the No. 1 overall pick in 2023, has had a rough go of it throughout his young career. Through his first two years, he’s gone 6-22 in his 28 starts and was even benched in the early goings of the 2024 campaign. That said, Young eventually found his way back into the starting role under center and started to get into a rhythm down the stretch. After reclaiming the starting job in Week 8, Young posted an 88.9 passer rating over the final 10 games and had 15 passing touchdowns to just six interceptions. He also rushed for five touchdowns over that span. Over the final month, Young’s numbers were even better, registering a 102.3 passer rating in the final four games to go along with a 65.5 completion percentage, eight passing touchdowns, and just two interceptions. If he has truly turned a corner and plays closer to what we saw at the end of 2024, that could make Carolina a sleeper pick in the NFC South.
- Projected O/U win total: 6.5 (Over -140, Under +120)
- Our prediction: 6-11
New Orleans Saints
Tyler Shough needs to exceed expectations.
A lot needs to go right for the Saints to shock the world, win the NFC South, and make the playoffs. However, the No. 1 thing that needs to fall in their favor is for them to find a quarterback that can give them a puncher’s chance every week. With Carr retired, their options on the 90-man roster are currently second-round rookie Shough, veterans Spencer Rattler and Jake Haener, along with undrafted rookie Hunter Dekkers. In all likelihood, it’s Shough who gets the nod out of the gate, and he’ll need to exceed expectations for New Orleans to do the impossible. We’re talking about Shough following in the footsteps of fellow former Day 2 pick Russell Wilson, who won the job for the Seattle Seahawks as a rookie in 2012 and went 11-5 as the starter. Is that likely to happen? No. But it’s what’s necessary for New Orleans to win the NFC South.
- Projected O/U win total: 5.5 (Over +115, Under -135)
- Our prediction: 4-13
Winning the NFC North: Reasons the Bears, Lions, Packers and Vikings can claim the division crown
Cody Benjamin
Go to Source
Author: Tyler Sullivan
June 25, 2025 | 9:55 am
