The Pittsburgh Steelers spent much of last season running through the league, ending Week 14 with a 10-3 record and leading in two of those losses with two minutes to go in the game. But even with wins over the Chargers, Commanders and Ravens in the books, there were questions about how good Pittsburgh ultimately was, and a stretch of games against the Eagles, Ravens, Chiefs and Bengals figured to put the team to the test. The Steelers lost all four, and to the Ravens again in the wild-card round in a game that was never close.
The schedule once again sets up for the Steelers to start strong before being tested later in the year, with road matchups against the Ravens, Lions, Chargers and Bears plus home matchups against the Ravens, Bills and Bengals on tap from Week 10 on. But this team will look much different from the version that went into battle in 2024, most notably at quarterback.
The duo of Russell Wilson and Justin Fields are out, and replacing them is Aaron Rodgers, whose run in New York ended with one season lost to injury and another lost to a 5-12 record and a locker room that seemed beyond repair. He seems unlikely to get Mike Tomlin fired considering the Steelers coach has been one of the best in football for the last 18 years, winning 63% of his games and never finishing with a losing record. Just like last year, oddsmakers are giving 2025 a good chance of being the season to end Tomlin’s historic run of .500 ball or better, but the Steelers coach has overcome the odds plenty of times in his tenure.
We’re going to take a quick look at the Steelers’ 2024 season and the rest of their offseason moves before getting into their track record in NFL futures over the last five years. After that, you can find the odds available at top sportsbooks for their 2025 win total along with Super Bowl and playoff odds as well as key player props to know. Finally, we’ll take a look at the pros and cons of betting on the Steelers in 2025 and give out our best bets.
2024 Pittsburgh Steelers season review
- Regular season: 10-7 (Second, AFC North)
- Playoffs: Lost Wild Card Weekend at Ravens 28-14
- 21st straight regular season without losing record (T-longest streak in NFL history)
- First 10-win team in NFL history to end season on 5+ game losing streak including playoffs
- Most wins in eight-season span without playoff win all-time (80)
2025 Pittsburgh Steelers offseason review
| QB | Justin Fields, Russell Wilson, Kyle Allen | Aaron Rodgers, Mason Rudolph, Skylar Thompson | Will Howard (6) |
| RB | Najee Harris | Kenneth Gainwell, Trey Sermon, Evan Hull | Kaleb Johnson (3) |
| WR | George Pickens, Mike Williams, Van Jefferson | DK Metcalf, Robert Woods | |
| TE | MyCole Pruitt | ||
| OL | Dan Moore, James Daniels, Chukwuma Okorafor, Nate Herbig | Nick Broeker, Steven Jones | |
| DL | Larry Ogunjobi, Montravius Adams | Daniel Ekuale, Esezi Otomewo, Domenique Davis | Derrick Harmon (1), Yahya Black (5) |
| EDGE | Jack Sawyer (4) | ||
| LB | Elandon Roberts, Preston Smith, Tyler Matakevich | Malik Harrison | Carson Bruener (7) |
| CB | Donte Jackson, C.J. Henderson, Cameron Sutton | Darius Slay, Brandin Echols, Cameron McCutcheon | Donte Kent (7) |
| S | Damontae Kazee | Juan Thornhill, Quindell Johnson | |
| STAFF |
Five-year futures odds and trends
| 2024 | +5000 | 8 | Over | 10 | L, Wild card round |
| 2023 | +5000 | 8.5 | Over | 10 | L, Wild card round |
| 2022 | +8000 | 7.5 | Over | 9 | 3rd, AFC North |
| 2021 | +5000 | 8.5 | Over | 9 | L, Wild card round |
| 2020 | +2500 | 9.5 | Over | 12 | L, Wild card round |
Historical betting data via Pro-Football-Reference.
2025 Pittsburgh Steelers futures odds
| Go Over win total | 8.5 (+100) | 8.5 (-110) | 8.5 (-110) | 8.5 (+110) |
| Go Under win total | 8.5 (-120) | 8.5 (-110) | 8.5 (-110) | 8.5 (-130) |
| Win Super Bowl | +4500 | +4000 | +4000 | +4600 |
| Win AFC | +2000 | +2200 | +1900 | +2200 |
| Win AFC North | +550 | +525 | +550 | +500 |
| Make playoffs | +140 | +140 | +130 | +148 |
| Miss playoffs | -170 | -175 | -160 | -184 |
| Win No. 1 seed | +2200 | +2500 | +2800 | +2500 |
Odds subject to change.
2025 Aaron Rodgers props
| MVP | +8000 | +6000 | +5000 | +7500 |
| Offensive POY | +15000 | +20000 | +40000 | |
| Most pass yards | +5000 | +4700 | ||
| Pass yards O/U | 3250.5 | 3200.5 | ||
| Pass TDs O/U | 23.5 | 23.5 |
Odds subject to change.
Reasons to back the Steelers
Any positive case for the Steelers has to start with Tomlin, who has gone over the team’s preseason win total in 13 of his 18 years at the helm, including each of the last five. His defenses routinely land in the top 10 for points allowed, and that core remains strong and could be even better this year with the additions of Derrick Harmon and Jack Sawyer in the draft and Darius Slay at cornerback. The team has one of the best group of pass rushers in the game, led by perennial Defensive Player of the Year contender T.J. Watt.
For as bad as the situation got with the Jets, Aaron Rodgers still performed well on the field, throwing 28 touchdowns against just 11 interceptions, a performance on par with his last year in Green Bay. If Rodgers is committed to running an offense that was successful last season, he could potentially stave off Father Time for one more season and give the Steelers their first playoff win since the 2016 season.
Reasons to fade the Steelers
Rodgers turns 42 during the season, an age that is well past prime for most quarterbacks not named Tom Brady. He’s coming into an unfamiliar situation on an offense that has faced a huge amount of turnover during the offseason — only about 40% of the team’s touches last year went to players still on the roster, while the only player left to throw a pass for the Steelers last year is safety Miles Killebrew. Even with an easy schedule up front, it’s going to take time for these pieces to fit together — and they must do so without a pair of quality offensive linemen that left in free agency in James Daniels and Dan Moore.
While Rodgers will continue to try and keep Father Time at bay on the offensive side of the ball, Cameron Heyward will try to do the same on defense. Hayward played at an All-Pro level once again in 2024 but is now 36 years old, and unless rookie Derrick Harmon immediately comes in and plays at a high level, the Steelers need Heyward to continue to play at the top of this game to keep the unit among the best in the league.
How to bet the Steelers in 2025
- Under 8.5 wins -110 (DraftKings)
- T.J. Watt Over 11.5 sacks +100 (BetMGM)
Just because Mike Tomlin hasn’t ever had a losing season doesn’t mean he’s immune to doing so, and this might be his toughest challenge yet. Aaron Rodgers is a name-brand quarterback but at his age and entering a new offense, I have no confidence he’s going to suddenly return to vintage form, and I’d consider him a downgrade from what they got from the position last year. The offensive line is a question mark with its losses, and the skill positions look no better than last year. That puts immense pressure on the defense to carry this team over its win total once again, and while they certainly have the horses to do so, I think there’s a better chance of this being a seven or eight-win team with Rodgers at the helm.
I don’t mind playing Rodgers Under 3250.5 passing yards at DraftKings and expecting him to not make it all 17 games, but my favorite Steelers player props involve Watt. He’s a great value play to win Defensive Player of the Year at +1000 (FanDuel), and I love taking Over 11.5 sacks at even money. The only time he didn’t beat that total in the last seven years was in 2022 when he played just 10 games, and he’s averaged 15.2 sacks per 17 games in his career. As long as the contract gets figured out, we’ll only have to fade an injury to get to this number.
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Author: R.J. White
June 24, 2025 | 12:00 pm
