Shane Steichen came to the Indianapolis Colts two years ago as a hot coaching candidate after his time working with the Eagles offense, and the selection of Anthony Richardson in the 2023 NFL Draft seemed to give Steichen a supercharged athlete to build around at the quarterback position. However, Richardson played just four games as a rookie due to injury and was in and out of the lineup last year, leaving Steichen to roll with Gardner Minshew and Joe Flacco in 19 of the team’s 34 games over the last two years.
When Richardson has been on the field, the results have been uneven. He completed just 47.7% of his 264 pass attempts last year, and while you can chalk it up to being a young player still developing, just two QBs since 2000 have failed to complete 48% of at least 250 passes since 2000: Tim Tebow at age 24 and Akili Smith at age 25. The pair combined to throw 49 more passes over their next two seasons before crashing out of the NFL.
If Richardson starts poorly again in 2025, Steichen may be forced to turn to Giants castoff Daniel Jones at quarterback. The 2019 sixth overall pick was 24-44-1 as a starter in the Big Apple, but his first season with Brian Daboll featured a playoff berth and even a wild-card win while Jones had a league-best 1.1% interception rate and completed more than two-thirds of his pass attempts. If Steichen can get that level of production out of the quarterback position, the Colts may be able to finally break free from playing .500 football and earn a playoff berth in 2025.
We’re going to take a quick look at the Colts’ 2024 season and the rest of their offseason moves before getting into their track record in NFL futures over the last five years. After that, you can find the odds available at top sportsbooks for their 2025 win total along with Super Bowl and playoff odds as well as key player props to know. Finally, we’ll take a look at the pros and cons of betting on the Colts in 2025 and give out our best bets.
2024 Indianapolis Colts season review
- Regular season: 8-9 (Second, AFC South)
- Playoffs: Missed
- Longest playoff drought (four seasons) since seven-year streak from 1988-94
- No. 24 scoring defense (bottom 10 in NFL for third straight season)
- Anthony Richardson: worst comp pct (47.7%) in a season since Tim Tebow in 2011
2025 Indianapolis Colts offseason review
| QB | Joe Flacco, Sam Ehlinger | Daniel Jones | Riley Leonard (6) |
| RB | Trey Sermon | Khalil Herbert | DJ Giddens (5) |
| WR | Juwann Winfree | Ajou Ajou | |
| TE | Kylen Granson | Tyler Warren (1) | |
| OL | Will Fries, Ryan Kelly, Mark Glowinski, Wesley French | Luke Tenuta | Jalen Travis (4) |
| DL | Raekwon Davis, Taven Bryan | Neville Gallimore, Eric Johnson | Tim Smith (6) |
| EDGE | Dayo Odeyingbo | JT Tuimoloau (2) | |
| LB | E.J. Speed, Grant Stuard | Joe Bachie, Jacob Phillips | |
| CB | Charvarius Ward, Corey Ballentine | Justin Walley (3) | |
| S | Julian Blackmon, Ronnie Harrison, Trevor Denbow | Cam Bynum | Hunter Wohler (7) |
| STAFF | Gus Bradley (DC) | Lou Anarumo (DC) |
Five-year futures odds and trends
| 2024 | +8000 | 8.5 | Under | 8 | 2nd, AFC South |
| 2023 | +12500 | 6.5 | Over | 9 | 2nd, AFC South |
| 2022 | +2240 | 9.5 | Under | 4 | 3rd, AFC South |
| 2021 | +3500 | 9 | Push | 9 | 2nd, AFC South |
| 2020 | +2500 | 9.5 | Over | 11 | L, Wild card round |
Historical betting data via Pro-Football-Reference.
2025 Indianapolis Colts futures odds
| Go Over win total | 7.5 (-110) | 7.5 (-125) | 7.5 (-110) | 7.5 (+100) |
| Go Under win total | 7.5 (-110) | 7.5 (+105) | 7.5 (-110) | 7.5 (-120) |
| Win Super Bowl | +10000 | +8500 | +12000 | +8000 |
| Win AFC | +4000 | +4000 | +6000 | +3500 |
| Win AFC North | +300 | +360 | +380 | +310 |
| Make playoffs | +170 | +180 | +200 | +186 |
| Miss playoffs | -210 | -220 | -250 | -235 |
| Win No. 1 seed | +3500 | +6000 | +7500 | +3900 |
Odds subject to change.
2025 Jonathan Taylor props
| MVP | +25000 | +25000 | +20000 | +30000 |
| Offensive POY | +2800 | +3000 | +4000 | +4000 |
| Most rush yards | +750 | +1000 | +1000 | |
| Rush yards O/U | 1250.5 | 1250.5 | 1200.5 | 1200.5 |
| Rush TDs O/U | 9.5 | 9.5 | 9.5 | 10.5 |
Odds subject to change.
Reasons to back the Colts
Steichen has kept the Colts at a league-average level despite getting below-average play at the most important position in football. What if things click for Anthony Richardson, or what if Daniel Jones takes off in Steichen’s system? The Colts added Tyler Warren to an underrated pass-catching group that features Michael Pittman and Josh Downs, and they can still rely on Jonathan Taylor to be the engine that drives the offense. The two internal replacements on the offensive line did solid work when called upon as mid-round rookies last year, and the potential is there for this to return to being a top-10 offense like it was in 2023.
The key defensive additions the team made this offseason are both in the secondary, and while Charvarius Ward and Cam Bynum are coming off disappointing seasons, they have graded out well previously and could be just the help the team needs in the defensive backfield to elevate from being a mediocre unit over the last few years to something around league average, especially if second-round pick JT Tuimoloau can hit the ground running to supplement the team’s starters on the defensive line. The switch in defensive coordinators could also give the unit a boost, as Gus Bradley has long seemed past his prime running an NFL defense.
Reasons to fade the Colts
If things don’t click for Richardson or Jones, the Colts will likely have a bottom-five QB situation in 2025, and that’s tough to overcome no matter the talent on the rest of the roster and in the coaching ranks. Jonathan Taylor must stay healthy to keep the pressure off the team’s passing game, but he’s managed just one full season in his five years in the league. The new faces on the offensive line may not be able to handle a full season in the lineup and turn the unit from the team’s strength to a question mark.
Lou Anarumo should be an improvement from Bradley running the Colts defense, but his units also took a turn for the worse in Cincinnati the last two years, including finishing 25th in scoring last year. If the Colts are basically the same as they were last year on both sides of the ball, it’s hard to see them improving in a division that has gotten better around them with top-two draft picks Cam Ward and Travis Hunter on division rivals.
How to bet the Colts in 2025
- Over 7.5 wins +100 (FanDuel)
- Tyler Warren Under 500.5 receiving yards -110 (DraftKings)
I have the Colts as right around a 7.5-win team this year, and while we have an Under 7.5 at +105 available as well, I’m more inclined to believe in Steichen and play the Over with the expectation that his offense is going to improve in one of two ways: either Anthony Richardson is going to play well enough to keep the starting job, or Daniel Jones will be an improvement over what Steichen has gotten from the QB position the last two years. Jones has struggled the last two years as well but was in a much worse situation, especially in terms of the players tasked with protecting him. If Jones ends up the Week 1 starter, I may sprinkle a little bit on the Colts to win the division at +350 or higher, as I think they’ll have a better shot than those odds imply with the Texans potentially taking a step back.
Colts tight ends collectively received 75 targets last year, which I think is on the high end of what we should expect, as that includes Joe Flacco throwing at least 35 passes in five of his six starts. That’s not how the offense is designed to operate, and no matter which quarterback is under center, we shouldn’t expect them to come close to throwing 35 passes in most games. Only seven of the 37 tight ends drafted in the first round since 2000 reached 500 yards as rookies, and four of them had at least 110 targets as rookies. The others had 91 (Dalton Kincaid), 78 (Dustin Keller) and 66 (Noah Fant). I don’t see Warren even getting to Fant’s number of targets as a rookie, and if he does, he’ll need to have a similarly high yards per reception figure (14.1 for Fant) to top 500 yards.
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Author: R.J. White
June 26, 2025 | 8:50 am
